$5.50 - QQ (Thoughts?)

thunderb4ll · #1 10-07-2007, 07:57 PM

Thanks for the comments... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

My thoughts:

I understand that the bet of 200 on the flop is tiny in relation to the pot. I almost never bet this small, but considering the relatively "equal" chip distribution at the table (blinds were moving to 75/150 within a min. or two), I felt I really needed to get as much value out of the hand as possible.

I thought it was very unlikely he hit the flop. Considering he called a raise oop against the chip leader when he's 3rd in chips, I am putting him on ATs+/22-66. I was hoping he would think the smallish bet on the flop would represent weakness and/or that I did not want to get involved in a big pot with him. When he called the flop bet, I thought maybe he was just calling to see how I'd react on the turn (in hopes of bluffing me on a later street) or perhaps to try and improve his hand (I gave him a good price). When he re-raised all-in on the turn, I thought it was a very good possiblity he had AJo (maybe KJs). I thought the turn was very good for my hand, as it may have allowed him to "catch up," and if he did hit it, it's going to be very hard for him to lay the hand down.

Does my line of reasoning make sense?

I'll post the results a little later.

Tantalus747 · #2 10-07-2007, 10:31 PM

I follow the logic and A-J or maybe K-J is what I was thinking too. The problem with the flop bet is that 1/2 the cards that let him 'catch up' also let him catch up a little too much. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

thunderb4ll · #3 10-07-2007, 11:20 PM

Thanks for the input..

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but if he does have K2-KJ/A2-AJ (3 outs) or 22-66 (2 outs), he is drawing incorrectly from a mathematical standpoint calling the bet on the flop (assuming I am firing another bullet on the turn that is correctly sized). I am offering him pot odds of 3.25:1 on the flop and I believe he needs to be getting 14.7:1 (3 outs) and 22.5:1 (2 outs) to try and hit his card on the turn. I understand the importance of "protecting your hand," but I also hate losing potential value (also keep in mind that he had enough chips to give me a very healthy lead).

Anyway...

Turn: (t1050) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t500, BB raises to t1915, Hero calls t1415.

River: (t4880) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t4880

Results in white below: 
BB has As 9d (three of a kind, nines).
Hero has Qs Qc (two pair, queens and nines).
Outcome: BB wins t4880. 

Comment (highlight): As can be seen by the results, I suppose there was nothing I could have really done... I can't see folding QQ on that board given the circumstances. Villain made a loose call pf and was rewarded. Regardless, next time I will bet the flop stronger in hopes of creating a pot where all the money can go in on the turn.

I appreciate the advice from everyone that posted; any others that wish to comment, please feel free. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

drzen · #4 10-29-2007, 02:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the input..

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but if he does have K2-KJ/A2-AJ (3 outs) or 22-66 (2 outs), he is drawing incorrectly from a mathematical standpoint calling the bet on the flop (assuming I am firing another bullet on the turn that is correctly sized). I am offering him pot odds of 3.25:1 on the flop and I believe he needs to be getting 14.7:1 (3 outs) and 22.5:1 (2 outs) to try and hit his card on the turn. I understand the importance of "protecting your hand," but I also hate losing potential value (also keep in mind that he had enough chips to give me a very healthy lead).

[/ QUOTE ]

But you also pretty much priced in flush and straight draws. They don't need much in implied odds to take one off. I suppose T8 is an unlikely holding but Ahxh is the kind of hand fishes love to call raises with. And dude, they don't care about not having the odds to peel one with a pair! They put you on AK, call the cbet and if you check the turn, they are laughing.

Also, the Beluga Theorem is almost never wrong. If they C/R you on the turn, your pair is no good. I'd expect to be shown a 9 here an awful lot of the time. AJ/KJ not so much. JT sometimes. A fold would be very MUBSy though. I'm not sure I could do it with all undercards on the board.

I'm not sure I worry so much about value here. You have a decent stack. I'd prefer to build a pot with the fish who wants to gambool and not worry too much about the guy who would have paid a couple of hundy to see the turn.

thunderb4ll · #5 10-29-2007, 04:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, the Beluga Theorem is almost never wrong. If they C/R you on the turn, your pair is no good.

[/ QUOTE ]Thanks for the feedback! I've never heard of the "Beluga Theorem," but it seems to be very accurate. Thanks.