Predict ARod's season HR & RBI Totals

[Sooga]

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There was a thread recently about most unbreakable records in sports, if you guys must rehash all of this, then bump it and take it there.

My post had nothing to do with actually thinking 191 REI is an unbreakable record. If you turn around quickly, you might be able to see the joke flying way over your head like an A-Rod dinger.

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Like I said before, I wasn't sure if you actually thought it was unbreakable due to its unbreakableness, or if you were making a joke based off of Wilson's uncanny ability to drive in runners posthumously.

[Boris]

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Do they cheer for A-Rod in New York yet? Is it a coincidence that he can opt out of his contract after this year?

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It would be so awesome if he ends up with like 68/163 and opts out after this year. Poetic justice, baby. ~85% of Yankee fans would deserve for this to happen. The other 15%...bad beat.

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and then steinbrenner will throw him obscene amounts of money in a larger contract

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If A-Rod has any dignity he will tell Steinbrenner and the Yankee fans to suck it after a huge contract offer.

[BobOjedaFan]

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Do they cheer for A-Rod in New York yet? Is it a coincidence that he can opt out of his contract after this year?

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It would be so awesome if he ends up with like 68/163 and opts out after this year. Poetic justice, baby. ~85% of Yankee fans would deserve for this to happen. The other 15%...bad beat.

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and then steinbrenner will throw him obscene amounts of money in a larger contract

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If A-Rod has any dignity he will tell Steinbrenner and the Yankee fans to suck it after a huge contract offer.

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I really hope that's what happens, although I'd have if he just goes to the Red sox or Angels or Mets (although that obviously wouldn't happen) Go to Tampa Bay and win the East with them, then I'll be impressed.

[Case Closed]

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Hmm, I'll bet you it's never broken in your lifetime and I'll give you 10,000 to 1.

Put it in your will.

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Always take 10,000-1 odds. If John Cougar Melloncamp wins an Oscar I'm gonna be rich.

[tdarko]

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henderson's career stolen bases is untouchable, but i think his single season record is possibly breakable - vince coleman at least had more than 100, right? tim raines stole a base a game in 81 too IIRC - but it was the strike year.

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You are mentioning players/seasons that were back during Rickey's time, this was the base running era. The game is much different now and unless it changes drastically the stolen base record is on lock down. That record would be extremely tough if the game were played the same as it was 20 years ago let alone today in a completely different style of baseball, the record is secure.

[Triumph36]

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henderson's career stolen bases is untouchable, but i think his single season record is possibly breakable - vince coleman at least had more than 100, right? tim raines stole a base a game in 81 too IIRC - but it was the strike year.

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You are mentioning players/seasons that were back during Rickey's time, this was the base running era. The game is much different now and unless it changes drastically the stolen base record is on lock down. That record would be extremely tough if the game were played the same as it was 20 years ago let alone today in a completely different style of baseball, the record is secure.

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i'm curious - and while i think i agree - how has it changed? teams just don't value the stolen base as much? not as many super-fast guys get involved in baseball? there's not as much emphasis on teaching the stolen base - how to time pitchers correctly, get good jumps, etc.? just thinking of that era, it does seem like there were a ton of guys able to steal in the 50s and 60s - omar moreno, ron leflore, dave collins, davey lopes, hell even john wathan averaged 20 a year and he was a catcher.

these things do tend to run in cycles - no one would've thought ty cobb's record would fall when dom dimaggio was leading the league with 15 SBs.

[TheNoodleMan]

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henderson's career stolen bases is untouchable, but i think his single season record is possibly breakable - vince coleman at least had more than 100, right? tim raines stole a base a game in 81 too IIRC - but it was the strike year.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are mentioning players/seasons that were back during Rickey's time, this was the base running era. The game is much different now and unless it changes drastically the stolen base record is on lock down. That record would be extremely tough if the game were played the same as it was 20 years ago let alone today in a completely different style of baseball, the record is secure.

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As SBs become less and less prevalent, we are likely to see catchers in the Piazza mold who can't throw a lick simply because they have never had to. Once it gets to the point where most teams have catchers like this, it'll be easy pickings if a determined base stealer comes along. This already happened once with Maury Wills, it can happen again.

[tdarko]

Triumph,

Has nothing to do with teaching, valuing the stolen base, speed--just as many if not more fast guys now, good jumps, timing or any of that. The game is driven by the long ball which has turned it into a base to base game to allow the hitters to get their at bats and not have a chance to have them taken away--a runner thrown out.

Of course there are teams that play small ball, run and bunt more but the majority don't and when the majority don't there is less of a chance the record will be broken and we are talking about a steep number. Take a look at Arod for instance, when he was with the Mariners his stolen bases #'s where up, they ran a little. Then he went to Texas, a power hitting lineup, base to base, let the hitters drive you in and his stolen base #'s were way down.

We're in the JUICE ERA mang, we ain't showin' off our wheels!

TheNoodleMan,

Mike Piazza is a rarity. A rarity in that it isn't often nor are there very many catchers in the league that are behind the dish that are that bad, and he is back there b/c he is a possible lifetime .300/500 guy. That is just one guy though and catcher is a position that scouts scour the countryside clocking glove to glove (home to second) times first and foremost and then if the kid can hit that is a plus. It just so happens that this generation is getting more and more talented with the bat, still, defensive catching is getting better and better and there will never be league filled with Mike Piazza arms so that Carl Crawford can swipe 131.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

Joe Sheehan on BP today actually talks about Arod chances of 191 this year. I won't paste the whole thing, but will take this snippet, I think this is ok.

To have a realistic shot at 200 RBI, Rodriguez probably has to drive himself in 50 or more times on home runs, which seems within his reach. He’d have to bat with at least 550 runners on base, and preferably closer to 600. The record since 1957 is 573, set by Derek Bell in 1996. Nine players have batted with at least 550 runners on in a season. If Damon, Jeter and Abreu all sustain their current OBPs, and Abreu continues to be a 15-homer man rather than a 30-homer man, it’s not completely unrealistic to suggest that Rodriguez could set the record here

Remember, we’re talking about a record-setting performance here; it’s unlikely by definition. Alex Rodriguez, however, is in as good a position as any player has ever been to make a run at Hack Wilson’s RBI record.

[Boris]

"That is just one guy though and catcher is a position that scouts scour the countryside clocking glove to glove (home to second) times first and foremost and then if the kid can hit that is a plus."

I'll bet the Oakland A's scouts rank hitting ability above glove to glove time.