Did somebody say min raise!? (tilt 6H)

[Bond18]

Here's the pattern i've noticed with peoples thoughts on being min raised; as a whole it seems people clump the idea of being min raised togeather a little to broadly. I think the biggest things to consider are:

1. Is villain min raising in position or check min raising? I think a check min raise has a huge % more frequency of being a monster than one in position, as people use a positional one for draws or pot control with weak top pairs way more.

2. What street is the min raise on?
I think a turn min raise is on the whole more likely a monster than the flop, this seems obvious as the villain is comfortable with hero shooting twice before announcing his hand and trying to gain value.

3. Is villain committing a retarded amount of his stack on a raise that should be a shove?
Again, this should be obvious, if the guy is raising you nominally instead of moving in, thats a bad bad sign. If you guys are 2500 deep, and you lead into a pot of 200 for 150 and he min raises to 300 its nowhere near as bad as both of you being 2500 deep with a pot of 1600 which you lead 1000 into and he raises to 2000.

Anyway, on to the hand in question.

Tilt $75 6H 8.5k guarantee. Villain sucks, he's got all the classic fish tells.

What i'm gonna talk about doing here, might get me, well, called an idiot.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $25/$50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1990
Hero: $6675
CO: $1055
Button: $2665
SB: $2490
BB: $5930

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $150</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($350, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $250</font>, SB calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($850, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $575</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $1150</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero?

Alright here's what i'm thinking. Villain has 950 left. I am in the area of 99% certain that he's got me beat with two pair/set/straight/flush.

At this point i'm debating calling his raise, and releasing on a river that doesn't improve my hand to either two pair/set/flush because i'm pretty sure i'm putting in that last 950 with roughly 20% equity on it if i shove.

Yea i've got a pretty major hand with the over pair+NFSD, but what am i beating at this point?

Thoughts?

[ThePuma]

This situation tells me that the person in hand most likely has flush, The reasoning is obviously his choice when to min raise you. I think there is also maybe 20% he is putting in a cheap bluff. But if its the other 80% your outdrawing odds are slim. If it was just the 575 more i probably call and hope for a bluff or to outdraw i know i got outs.

But you don't know whats it going to cost you on the river. You have roughly 800 invested still a healthy stack i think fold is a pretty good option here

[Bond18]

[ QUOTE ]
This situation tells me that the person in hand most likely has flush, The reasoning is obviously his choice when to min raise you. I think there is also maybe 20% he is putting in a cheap bluff. But if its the other 80% your outdrawing odds are slim. If it was just the 575 more i probably call and hope for a bluff or to outdraw i know i got outs.

But you don't know whats it going to cost you on the river. You have roughly 800 invested still a healthy stack i think fold is a pretty good option here

[/ QUOTE ]

I regret to inform you that folding this turn with this draw with these pot odds would be very bad. Unless your talking the river?

[r1base14]

Here's the real question: Can you fold your hand unimproved on the river for 950 getting over 4 to 1? I can't......

That being said, if you really plan on folding because you trust your read, go ahead and just call. Who knows, you may even get a free showdown (but I highly doubt it).

A separate thought here...I have seen many people check min raise on boards like this trying to rep the flush, leaving themselves a bit of chips behind to dig out of the hole if they get repopped. Since you have the Ace, it goes without saying that it is unlikely that he has the flush here. I think you are likely up against KsQx, QT, or 888/TTT (I almost completely discount 9J here, although I have been wrong before lol).

All in all I guess what I'm saying is that I would call and then let him push the river, which you will be forced to call even if you don't improve b/c you will be getting 4 to 1.

Ryan

[Bond18]

Yea i could drop it on the river unimproved given i know i'm beat it'd be rediculous not to.

[Fiksdal]

fwiw I think all your reasoning seems logical bond. And yeah, obviously you can't fold on the turn here with the pot odds and the NFD.

[ QUOTE ]

I think there is also maybe 20% he is putting in a cheap bluff


[/ QUOTE ]

This is waaay lower IMO probably &lt; 4%

I would also just call here, although it hurts

And I also think you are probably gonna need another spade to get the best hand