50NL equity of push calculation

[Panic__NL]

Ok I am trying to make an EV calculation on this hand and I want to see if I am doing it right.

Villian is 25/11/2.5 over a decent sample.
I am fairly active running 27/22/4


iPoker No-Limit Texas Hold'em (NL50), $0.50 BB (4 handed) SilverKitty Hand History converter by www.pokeronline.com.ua

Hero ($71.3)
BB ($53.3)
CO ($79.13)
Button ($47.5)

Hero: Post SB $0.25
BB: Post BB $0.50

Preflop:
Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>
Button Call $0.5
Hero Raise $2.25
BB Raise $5
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>
Hero Call $3

Flop:($11.5) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]<font color="#0030DD">(2 players)</font>
Hero Check
BB Bet $6.5
Hero Raise $28.5
BB Allin $41.3
Hero Call $19.3

First of all by reraising on the flop I commit my self so we will see it as a shove. I dont shove cause it looks fishy and I hope to get more fold equity with a reraise.

Preflop: Villians 3 bet range, considering my image, is about JJ+ AQs+ AK.

Flop: I flop an OESD and villian cbets, probably with his whole range. I reraise and now I want to know how often villian will have to fold to make this EV+.

Suppose he will not fold all his big pairs, so JJ+.
He will not fold AsKs and AsQs.
Against that range this is what pokerstove says:



Pokerstove

Board: Jh 9s 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: <font color="red"> 34.949% </font> 34.45% 00.50% 7844 114.00 { TdTs }
Hand 1: <font color="red"> 65.051% </font> 64.55% 00.50% 14698 114.00 { JJ+, AsKs, AsQs }




So if he calls I am an 35% underdog.
The moment I reraise/push the pot is 18$, so if he folds I win 18$ immediately.
If he calls I lose 65% of the time and win 35% of the time.


Equity of pushing

Villian folds:
= 17 <font color="blue"># in the pot after his cbet </font>
Villian calls:
65% * (-41) = -27 <font color="blue"># I have to shove $41 more over his cbet </font>
35% * (17+41)= 20 <font color="blue"># I will win his call + what was already in the pot</font>
= -7 <font color="blue"># total EV if he calls</font>

Villian folds 100x% of the time then
EV(push) = 17*x+ -7(1-x)
24*x + -7 = 0
x = 0.29


x is the percentage he has to fold to make this push EV neutral.



So if Villian folds <font color="red">29% </font>of the time or more I will make moneyz.

combos

As I said he will not fold all his pairs and all his nutflushdraws.
His 3bet range preflop consists of 36 combinations:
JJ-AA = 16 combos
AKs AQs = 8 combos
AK0 = 12 combos

18 of them he will fold, 18 he will call, so he will fold 50% of the time.
<font color="red">50% &gt;&gt; 29%</font>

But even if he decides to call with AKo, I am still good, cause my equity will rise, so he has to fold less.

Am I correct?

[Super Acct]

Is the player on the button so weak that this is essentially blind v blind? If so i might open up the villains range a little.

[Panic__NL]

I dont think a 25/11 is creative enough to open his range bvb, but even f he does I think my hand rises in equity.

[Profish2285]

Edit: Sorry I thought you were the pf raiser. I am probably calling this pf for set value more often than not. When a villain takes this line it is usually a sign of strength, especially from someone who only raises 11% of his hands total. You said yourself he isnt creative enough to open up his range so youre behind that range now. Looking at your c/r, what do you think he is going to fold that we beat here? I am going to go with nothing tbh. He isnt folding an overpair and he isnt folding a set. He might fold a flush draw but if its a flush draw, its probably AQss AKss so thats probably coming along too. I think here I like c/c flop and probably going to c/f the turn assuming I dont hit. If he has overs he probably isnt betting again so you can comfortably throw it away. If you hit you can do whatever you think will extract the most value. In general I like to donk 1/2 pot or so, something weak looking but it really depends on villain.

My ultimate point is that the range you gave him is very tight and probably correctly so. With that range he isnt folding ever, let alone 50% of the time so I cant see why you are doing this.

[Panic__NL]

as I said I have 35% against his range, that includes nut flush draws, so that implies not all my outs are clean all the time.
But of 36 combos he will fold 50%, wich makes this play +EV.
So what is so horrible about this play. What if we lead and he just flat calls, I miss the turn, how do we continue?
I was not intending to make any difficult decisions after the flop, I commit my self when I have decent equity + FE turn and river are easy then.

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think a 25/11 is creative enough to open his range bvb, but even f he does I think my hand rises in equity.

[/ QUOTE ]


If you put in two cards like deuces or treys that do not complete any flush nor straight, you will get a figure of how often he has JJ+, so so if you assume that he will fold anyting but JJ+, then your equity is:
(How often he will call with JJ+)xYour Equity vs that rangexfinalpot

+

(How often he folds now)xcurrent pot.


If that is positive then a push might not be optimal, but is not a mistake.

[Panic__NL]

can you suggest a better line for this hand?

[Panic__NL]

@profish: you are right, I dont let better hands fold probably, does that imply I should not push here?, but just peel one and see if he fires again.
Then we assume he will not fire AK unimproved on the turn and let him draw to 6 outs.

[Gelford]

[ QUOTE ]
can you suggest a better line for this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not without thinking ... but you might want to do a calculation of just calling down, if you think he will fire several times with AK, although with your description of villian chances are he will not [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Profish2285]

Well I mean its not only about getting better hands to fold. If you cant accomplish that with a c/r so be it, but the other thing is what worse hands call? If you cant get value from worse hands and/or getting better hands to fold, then why raise in the first place? With your description I am happily going to c/c flop and c/f the latter streets to aggression assuming I dont hit. The alternative to letting him draw to six is to try to "protect" our modest holding. The problem is we really dont have much of a hand to protect against, we have a weak made hand with a weak draw. I am doing everything I can to go to show down cheap and if villain wont make that possible for me then I find a different spot.