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#1
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
I agree with spoon's analysis but only if he calls every time (I think he will). Check-calling can make more money though if his bluffing frequency is high enough. Specifically you make 1bb every time you check and he bluffs and you lose 1bb every time you check and he bets a hand that beats you. So 21% of the time you lose 1bb, B% of the time you win 1bb. EV = B - .2 so check-calling is a better move if B > 55%. Although I think 50% might be an accurate estimation based on this guys play on 6th street, it's probably never higher than that and often it's lower, so I think bet-call is still better. I'm not going to do the calculation for bet-fold but for some opponents that's the money maker.
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#2
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
I don't think villain will bluff-bet or bluff-raise very often because he has show-down value here. However, if his board something like xxJ36Jx it is more likely he will.
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#3
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
The question is how dumb the villain is. 6th st makes me think he doesn't understand razz very well, unless he just doesn't believe that prax has an 8. Anyway, not everybody knows that you shouldn't bluff hands that have showdown value.
If he never bluff-raises then it's a bet-fold, no? Even if he bluff raises fairly a bit you make more bet-folding. |
#4
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
[ QUOTE ]
If he never bluff-raises then it's a bet-fold, no? Even if he bluff raises fairly a bit you make more bet-folding. [/ QUOTE ] bet/folding seventh here is like setting the appropriate amount of money on fire |
#5
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If he never bluff-raises then it's a bet-fold, no? Even if he bluff raises fairly a bit you make more bet-folding. [/ QUOTE ] bet/folding seventh here is like setting the appropriate amount of money on fire [/ QUOTE ] If your opponent will NEVER raise as a bluff on the end then bet/fold is the obvious play. I don't believe such an opponent really exists. The equilibrium point where folding is the same as calling is something like .2/15 which is about 1.3%. I don't treat razz like NLHE where you can give your opponent at least a 10% chance of bluffing but I can easily think that most razz opponents are capable of bluffing 1.3% of the time. |
#6
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
[ QUOTE ]
I don't believe such an opponent really exists. [/ QUOTE ] So why even bring it up? Bet/folding the river would be absurd. |
#7
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
[ QUOTE ]
Bet/folding the river would be absurd. [/ QUOTE ] I agree, not even an option, tho' when he bet I was about 90% sure he'd sucked out on me. But I don't agree this is boardlock: [ QUOTE ] 6th Street - (6.30 BB) Hero: 2 5 4 A 8 9___bets___raises Seat 5: xx xx J 9 6 2___raises___calls [/ QUOTE ] I know definitions of words evolve and are sometimes situational. But while this display means I have him beaten on 6th, in my lexicon "boardlock" is when he <u>cannot</u> win on the river regardless of what card he gets. So, J96T would be boardlock, because the best possible hand he can make is a 9 hi. With the board he had, he could still make a 6. Which he did. |
#8
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Re: Razz .50/1 - betting 6th and 7th
This guy just raised sixth street when he had a Nine against a very obvious Eight. You can't fold to a river raise.
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