200 NL, do I have enough equity to continue here?

[SABR42]

Villain is 27/12 over a small sample. Probably not too good...

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $94.25
UTG: $394.50
UTG+1: $203
MP1: $40
Hero (MP2): $211
CO: $53.10
BTN: $183.65
SB: $98

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP2)
3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $8, SB folds, BB calls $6

Flop: ($25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $19</font>, BTN calls $19, BB folds

Turn: ($63) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $46</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $106</font>, <font color="red">Hero reluctantly shoves.</font>

[five4suited]

I don't think so... you can't count on hitting a 9, or the 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I'm curious as to why you can't fold here, a read maybe? I ask because if he folds then he should just quit poker.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think so... you can't count on hitting a 9, or the 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I'm curious as to why you can't fold here, a read maybe? I ask because if he folds then he should just quit poker.

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously I'm not shoving for fold equity.

I think it's fairly marginal EV-wise when you consider that sometimes all my outs are good, and occasionally (rarely) he has a big draw as well and my pair is in the lead.

[pattay]

i like the shove, i either take your line or c/r turn, i almost never slow down

[twoblacknines]

if you are going to get stubborn with this hand, would calling the turn be terrible?

1) you have 0 fold equity
2) you can save ~100 if you miss
3) I'm pretty sure he's going to call any river so you will be getting paid if you hit

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
2) you can save ~100 if you miss

[/ QUOTE ]
It's only like $50 more.

[Effen]

Might as well call and potentially save the fifty bucks. Though I'd fold.

[twoblacknines]

oops, I was looking at your stack which woulda been $78 left, but since he was short at 183 your right. A little deeper I call turn.

I think this situation sucks and its one I get into a lot. Cont. bet flop then pick up draw on turn, but when you bet again villain wants to play for stacks. I think a turn check is good sometimes because normally they will give you good odds to hit. Of course a lot of times you can fold them out with the turn bet too.

I'd say go ahead and get it in here. Looks good for image and you got outs although theres a decent chance he has set which kills some of them.

I def mix it up in this turn spot though, sometimes check sometimes bet.

[CalledDownLight]

I really prefer c/c or c/r on the turn.

[twoblacknines]

[ QUOTE ]
I really prefer c/c or c/r on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ohhh I didn't consider the CR turn line. I like it if you feel like playing with variance. I would wait for a read that he likes to float you then pull the CR out.