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Old 10-14-2007, 10:25 AM
Lottery Larry Lottery Larry is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2003
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Default Why is Deal or No Deal not the Monte Carlo problem?

10 cards face down, Ace through T. You pick one card without exposing it, I randomly expose the other cards

We're down to two possible cards, the Ace and the 5. I offer you the choice to switch. It is a 50/50 proposition that you choose the Ace.

How do I explain that this 2.22% scenario is NOT the same as a Monte Hall version of DoND, where I am forced to expose only losing cards... making the Ace 90% to be the card remaining from the big pile that I whittled down?

What is it about one condition- being forced to exposed losers only- that makes the probabilities different in the end result?

Or, in other words, how does the fact that I randomly exposed 8 goats differ from when I intentionally exposed 8 goats?
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