Can I fold this?

jr4284 · #1 08-01-2007, 07:46 PM

Villain and I have played together a semi large sample, so I have a pretty good read on him.

He runs at 40/30/1.85, but I *never* see him get out of line in big pots. The only large pots he loses are the straight vs. boat-on-river type hands. Also, he 3-bets 99+ here PF.

On to the hand.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises, MP calls, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, MP calls, CO raises, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP calls.
(Should I 3-bet? I don't want to fold out the other two guys in the hand, but they'll likely call along with me.)

Turn: (8.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, MP calls, CO raises, Hero ???

I know the pot is huge, but I can't see him turning over anything but a boat. I don't know if I can fold it in this big of a pot.

While I'm at it, my WTSD is 38, and I feel that I'm making some loose calls (much looser than this hand) where I'm fairly certain I'm beat. Should I try to get the number down, say, to 34/35, or just be an agressive showdown monkey that plays position?

Scorcho · #2 08-01-2007, 07:56 PM

You call that in a heartbeat. You see this same sort of play with AK, KQ, and AA. More combos of those (12 + 9 + 6 = 27) than there are in KK and QQ (3 + 3 = 6). Hell, you could even raise here.

Scorcho · #3 08-01-2007, 08:00 PM

Board: Qs 4h Ks 5d 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.818% 81.82% 00.00% 27 0.00 { 5s3s }
Hand 1: 18.182% 18.18% 00.00% 6 0.00 { QQ+, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }

OregonRogue · #4 08-01-2007, 08:02 PM

have to call now, pot is WAY to big. What hand can you put him on? Not K's or Q's. No way someone raising 30% PF doesnt 3-bet that. Means his range is 44, Axs, KQ, JT, or a larger spade draw. Only hand you dont beat is 44. My guess is you just outdrew his KQ.

Personally I think if you bet the river, it means you have to be willing to 3 ball it. He's not putting you on a 5 and will pop you on the river again with his KQ. If you really put him on the 44 then why bet the river?

Apanage · #5 08-01-2007, 08:10 PM

There is no reason to bet river if we are not going to 3-bet him.
It is not like he is going to check behind or something when that 5 falls.
In this case you have to think what he thinks you have.It is easy for him to dismiss Trip 5:s and put you on another hand.
I would have gone for a checkraise which also had been cheaper for you because if he puts in a second raise you´re no longer favourite to win the hand.

PokerSparky · #6 08-01-2007, 08:11 PM

No you cannot. That is all.

Scorcho · #7 08-01-2007, 08:26 PM

Oops, my analysis is off -- thought CO was the initial raiser. I reduce his range to 44, KQ, AK. Still more combos of KQ/AK than 44.

TheHip41 · #8 08-01-2007, 09:53 PM

i beat KQ, so I call

and why no river c/r, that is such a brick card to the CO right?

goofball · #9 08-01-2007, 10:13 PM

Folding would be insane. Also checkraise the river.

Carmine · #10 08-01-2007, 10:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Folding would be insane. Also checkraise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
i beat KQ, so I call

and why no river c/r, that is such a brick card to the CO right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hip/Goofball I think an argument could be made for the donk bet considering our position to CO and players trapped between. How often will both players fold before it gets to CO. How often are they calling two cold when we C/R. How often was CO on his own draw when we collect 0 bets.