set fold vs josh

philipsaurus · #1 07-28-2006, 03:24 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($684.44)
SB ($621.50)
BB ($836.59)
UTG ($501.13)
MP ($1110.57)
CO ($488.41)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls $6, 1 fold, CO calls $6, Hero calls $6, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($30) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets $15, BB calls $15, UTG folds, CO calls $15, Hero raises to $75, SB calls $60, BB folds, CO folds.

Turn: ($210) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $100, Hero calls $100.

River: ($410) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero folds.

Final Pot: $410

converter sucks. he insta-openpushed river. neither of us has gotten out of line. anyone raise turn? does anyone think he could have 45 or 56 or something like that here?

Triumph36 · #2 07-28-2006, 03:35 PM

Wouldn't be surprised if he overset you with the 9.

Some problems with this hand:

1. It's a limped pot.
2. Josh leads out into the field.

So, obviously his flop lead is an indicator of some strength.

Your flop raise, however, is not a sign of strength, since two people called - I suspect you can do this with a wide range, figuring Josh isn't that strong, and obviously these other two clowns aren't, and your image probably means he could call this with a pretty wide range too.

The other bizarre thing about this hand is that Josh half-potted both the flop and turn. WTF? What does that? Either the nut straight or a draw-ish hand. He could have some sort of combo draw with the 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], no? I think there's no way he has a set here - either he has the straight or is bluffing with a missed draw or overset you with 999. So my question is, are you calling here with 444 as well? To me, either both are a call or both are a fold. I think I'm calling this.

lawloser · #3 07-28-2006, 03:53 PM

I think your good enough to make this call profitable. I would have raised preflop and that would certainly help you in this hand.

As played, I would push this turn. This smells more like 4-5 rather than a set.

philipsaurus · #4 07-28-2006, 04:01 PM

triumph,

that is some good analysis. i agree that his half pot leads were troubling in this hand. i really thought that his turn bet was sized perfectly for me to shove over. it was almost too perfect. at this point, i believed that josh felt he had the best hand.

the problem is, i think there is a possibility that his hand was actually worse than mine. i wouldnt be surprised if he thought 45s was good here. or maybe he was trying to freeze me with something like 35d

while i didnt mention this in the op, CO in this hand was a huge station (like 38% wtsd) but josh just sat so i dont know if he knows that. if he did know that, i think he has to suspect that my flop raise is more narrow than usual.

the point you bring up with 22 vs 44 here is interesting. i think i might call with 44 here, but probably more likely than that, i would have shoved the turn with 44.

i dunno, i have been running miserably for the last two weeks, so my play has been way off. having a 39% W$SD with 21% WTSD for 6k hands makes you weird [censored] stuff.

Gugel · #5 07-28-2006, 04:15 PM

this kind of play perpetuates a downswing. push the turn.

Josh. · #6 07-28-2006, 05:05 PM

i agree there's no chance i'm flat calling the flop raise with a set

Requin · #7 07-28-2006, 05:08 PM

Josh I can't put you on a hand. If you had the missed NF draw would you push the river?

philipsaurus · #8 07-28-2006, 05:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Josh I can't put you on a hand. If you had the missed NF draw would you push the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think that josh bluffs the NFD here because every combo draw missed on the turn and river and thus, if i have a made hand, it looks pretty good. i think that the ONLY hand that im folding that i would have gotten to the river are 35d and 45.

TheWorstPlayer · #9 07-28-2006, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Josh I can't put you on a hand. If you had the missed NF draw would you push the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think that josh bluffs the NFD here because every combo draw missed on the turn and river and thus, if i have a made hand, it looks pretty good. i think that the ONLY hand that im folding that i would have gotten to the river are 35d and 56.

[/ QUOTE ]
I love how you keep saying 56. In my book 56 makes the nuts.

Hoopster81 · #10 07-28-2006, 05:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($684.44)
SB ($621.50)
BB ($836.59)
UTG ($501.13)
MP ($1110.57)
CO ($488.41)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls $6, 1 fold, CO calls $6, Hero calls $6, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($30) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets $15, BB calls $15, UTG folds, CO calls $15, Hero raises to $75, SB calls $60, BB folds, CO folds.

Turn: ($210) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $100, Hero calls $100.

River: ($410) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero folds.

Final Pot: $410

converter sucks. he insta-openpushed river. neither of us has gotten out of line. anyone raise turn? does anyone think he could have 45 or 56 or something like that here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe beside the point, but I raise PF 100% here

I can't believe, as 2+2er, he is not repopping you on the flop with the straight on the flop. However, turn donk is suspicious, and I think he is trying to entice the push.

From your limp PF and your flop raise, your range is at worst 55/45, but more likely a set or 56. He knows this and I think he can beat your bottom set.

I disagree that 22 and 44 are the same hands here. 33/44 are definately possible hands for him here. 44 I shove the turn, but I think your line with 22 is fine (except PF).

I do not know who Josh is however, so his bluffing frequency is unknown to me. But, I suspect it would be higher vs. you than the average 2+2er.