First MTT Strat Post

[awarunn]

I'm in a $24+1 that started with 818 people. There are 53 people left.
Blinds: 500/1000 + 100 antes 9 handed
Hero: ~10000
SB: ~35000
BB: ~37000
M = 4.16

I'm OTB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

It folds around to me. SB and BB M = ~15

What is the bottom range of pushing hands for me? Am I pushing any two?

Also: Is there any info that I'm missing that I should be including?

[T_Nasty]

Definetely not any two, you aren't that low yet. Also both blinds have some chips to gamble with.

So, absent any reads, my pushing range would be somewhat tight. 22+ AJ+ and KQ

[umistboy]

I would push any 2 paint+ in this spot really. Neither would call without a better hand unless they were clearly happy to gamble.

[T_Nasty]

[ QUOTE ]
unless they were clearly happy to gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm in a $24+1

[/ QUOTE ]

[seke2]

OP, you should include reads on the blinds. Also, since we're ITM here, are there are payout implications that are significant to you?

We're not any two short here, but I'm pushing pretty wide assuming that the blinds aren't too loose. I don't think 86o is a push for me, but I don't think it's that far off the bottom of my range. I'd probably push a little bit wider than the other two people who posted so far.

[[Phill]]

When do blinds move up, when do we move up in payouts? How big are the jumps etc.

I hate M.

I shove here.

[awarunn]

I meant to post reads but it slipped. Both blinds are "solid" TAG's so I don't think either would call without a premium hand.

The structure increased payouts in small increments until it got to be about 10 handed. Then it jumped into the triple digits. Huge jumps around 5 handed and up.

If you can put the blinds on a pretty tight range is there some way to mathematically figure out what the bottom range of hands to push with is?
**I'm new to MTT's so I'm don't know exactly how to approach these situations. I'm just used to cash games where all I care about is $EV. It seems that decisions like these can't merely take into account cEV...or can they?**

[[Phill]]

From a background of 3 years of STT play i can guarantee there is no realistic range you can put on SB and BB on that makes this push -EV with the shallow payout jumps.

[seke2]

Sure, I'll show you how, you seem to be making a good effort here. My numbers feel wrong to me, but maybe they're not, someone correct me if I'm making some sort of retarded mistake.

Let's say we treat this situation as strict push/fold.

If Hero folds, he ends up around 10000, you just lose 100 from the ante, so that's basically nothing on your stack depth.

Now, if Hero pushes...

Given your reads, I think we can give a push calling range like:
{77+,AJs+,AJo+} for either opponent to call (assuming SB has folded before BB acts). That's the top 7% of hands, so ~14% of the time you will get called by one of them.

If SB calls/isolates, BB's range probably shrinks to AK, JJ+ given your read as a solid TAG, and that's 3% of the time.

So, you push, and ~85% of the time, both of them fold, and you win 500 + 1000 + 900 = 2400
.85 * 2400 = 2040

~10% of the time, you get called and have about 27% equity.
When you win 27%, you win ~12000 (your stack plus blinds)
When you lose 73%, you lose 10000 (your stack)
.1 * ( (.27 * 12000) + (.73 * -10000) ) = .1 * (3240 - 7300) = -406

~5% of the time, you get called in two places and have about 19% equity.
When you win 19%, you win 21000 (your stack twice plus antes)
When you lose 81%, you lose 10000 (your stack)
.05 * ( (.19 * 21000) + (.81 * 10000) ) = .1 * (3990 - 8100 = -411

Add that all together:
2040 - 406 - 411 = 1223

So if you really think they're ONLY playing premium hands here, this is probably +cEV to push, even with 86o. If you widen the calling range for the opponents to like, top 12% (77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KQo), then this is about EV neutral. You're getting called ~25% of the time now, and still have about the same amount of equity when you do get called since your hand still sucks compared to that range.

If you truly read them as only calling with premium hands, pushing any 2 is probably correct. If you widen their calling ranges slightly, pushing is probably -EV or close to EV neutral.

Edit: I am completely ignoring $EV, which may differ from cEV since this is an ITM situation.

[Beachman42]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, I'll show you how, you seem to be making a good effort here. My numbers feel wrong to me, but maybe they're not, someone correct me if I'm making some sort of retarded mistake.

Let's say we treat this situation as strict push/fold.

If Hero folds, he ends up around 10000, you just lose 100 from the ante, so that's basically nothing on your stack depth.

Now, if Hero pushes...

Given your reads, I think we can give a push calling range like:
{77+,AJs+,AJo+} for either opponent to call (assuming SB has folded before BB acts). That's the top 7% of hands, so ~14% of the time you will get called by one of them.

If SB calls/isolates, BB's range probably shrinks to AK, JJ+ given your read as a solid TAG, and that's 3% of the time.

So, you push, and ~85% of the time, both of them fold, and you win 500 + 1000 + 900 = 2400
.85 * 2400 = 2040

~10% of the time, you get called and have about 27% equity.
When you win 27%, you win ~12000 (your stack plus blinds)
When you lose 73%, you lose 10000 (your stack)
.1 * ( (.27 * 12000) + (.73 * -10000) ) = .1 * (3240 - 7300) = -406

~5% of the time, you get called in two places and have about 19% equity.
When you win 19%, you win 21000 (your stack twice plus antes)
When you lose 81%, you lose 10000 (your stack)
.05 * ( (.19 * 21000) + (.81 * 10000) ) = .1 * (3990 - 8100 = -411

Add that all together:
2040 - 406 - 411 = 1223

So if you really think they're ONLY playing premium hands here, this is probably +cEV to push, even with 86o. If you widen the calling range for the opponents to like, top 12% (77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KQo), then this is about EV neutral. You're getting called ~25% of the time now, and still have about the same amount of equity when you do get called since your hand still sucks compared to that range.

If you truly read them as only calling with premium hands, pushing any 2 is probably correct. If you widen their calling ranges slightly, pushing is probably -EV or close to EV neutral.

Edit: I am completely ignoring $EV, which may differ from cEV since this is an ITM situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math looks good to me.

OP: the only missing factor is YOUR image. If you have been pretty TAG, then this will keep their hand ranges at least as tight as Seke assumed. If you have been loose or shown down a marginal/lucky hand, then you may get looked up with a wider range that you are behind (think A8 or A6).

If you have been tight, then this is an easy push but don't make a habit of it. As soon as you loosen up you will need increasingly better hands to keep pushing.