Semibluff spot

[jba]

anyone else think raising the turn > raising flop?

[yourface]

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anyone else think raising the turn > raising flop?

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what extra hands are we folding out that would call down to a flop raise? Ax without a gutshot, maybe PPs but maybe not

we def have more FE, but also less equity vs the hands that will call us down so it is a trade off

not sure what line is more +ev but it would be a pretty simple calculation I think if we make some assumptions about river play. I don't think we should be betting the river UI, I can't see a better hand that gets there ever folding

[jba]

another bonus to turn vs. flop is we gain an extra .5bb

[sethypooh21]

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anyone else think raising the turn > raising flop?

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what extra hands are we folding out that would call down to a flop raise? Ax without a gutshot, maybe PPs but maybe not

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This whole discussion hinges on the SD-ness of villain. If he won't fold PP to either, then raising the flop is best, because A) free card possibly B) pretty sure you have an EQ edge vs. TT and below.

If he'll fold then raise the turn LDO (also raising the turn is better against someone who will rebluff something like T9 or 87hh on the turn, as he reads a flop raise as a semi-bluff/cheap showdown play of some sort).

[frenchpignouf]

I take a shot for raise the turn vs call the turn. I do the hypothesis the turn is a brick like a 2.

The range of sb (maybe a little tight given the read) is

55+ A4s+ A7o+ KTs+ KJo+ QJs

If Sb fold the turn, with the rake we win around 6BB.

Sb fold on the turn A9-A4 without FD. We have almost 20% of chance to hit a flush. If we hit the flush on the river Sb c/c with these hands. So if Sb fold to a raise on the turn we win 6x0.8-1x0.2=4.6BB.

A9 15 combos
A8 15 combos
A7 15 combos
A6s 3 combos
A5s 3 combos
A4s 3 combos
= 54 combos

Against A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T-4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I think we lose 3BB with a flush on the river with a call on the turn. We lose 2BB on the river and 1BB on the turn with a raise on the turn if we hit. So we lose just 0.8BB more with a raise on the turn. It is 6 combos.

I do the (optimistic) hypothesis with a raise on the turn we lose 0.6 BB against the other hands which are calling (we win 1BB more if we hit our flush). These hands are

AT 15 combos
AJ 12 combos
AQ 12 combos
AA 6 combos
QQ 3 combos
TT 6 combos
99 6 combos
88 6 combos
77 6 combos
66 6 combos
55 3 combos
Qjs 3 combos
=84 combos

The following hands raise and but we can win if we hit our flush, so we loose 1.2BB with

AK 8 combos
KQ 6 combos
KTs 2 combos
= 16 combos

We are drawing dead against

KK 1 combo
JJ 3 combos
KJ 6 combos
=10 combos
We loose 2BB against these hands.

There is 170 combos and we win by raising the turn

(54*4.6-6*0.8-84*0.6-16*1.2-10*2)/170=0.9BB.

Against this range, we can suppose our FE equity is 0 if we raise the flop. So I think the line raise the flop-bet the turn is worse than call the flop and the turn.

If we can take the free card on the turn with a raise on the flop we win just 0.3 BB. But we loose around 0.7BB if there is 3bet on the flop. It is proly close with the line call the flop and the turn.

[Romulet]

I've got a thing about flushes and paired boards, even I get a bit passive here, I know were HU but it can become an almighty spew if villan turns a F/H and you hit.

If he continues to raise you either tighten up then 3 bet or leave.

[waffle]

Try to win without a showdown. Play it the same way you'd play a king or jack. No way you can hand over every pot that you both miss to a tard like this.

[Oink]

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Try to win without a showdown. Play it the same way you'd play a king or jack. No way you can hand over every pot that you both miss to a tard like this.

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Why is he a tard?

He is an unknown AP 5/10 player. Doesnt this mean he is a LAGTAG with 90% probability?

Hero can let it go UI because he never has the best hand here.


I also think you guys are overestimating how often a semibluff folds a better hand.

To me it just looks like spew and I dont see how metagame reasons can make it +EV.


I am never ever folding Ax vs a turn raise on this board against an unknown. Never!