2/4: TT overpair line check

[Proofrock]

Villain is 15/10/2.7 over 400 hands. The only history we have is a pot where his AA stacked my QQ on a low flop w/70 BB eff stacks, so nothing interesting.

Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $459.10
CO: $200.30
BTN: $339.30
SB: $514.30
BB: $596.70
Hero (UTG): $649
UTG+1: $321.40

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $12</font>, 5 folds, BB calls $8

Flop: ($26) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $20</font>, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($66) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $40</font>, Hero calls $40

River: ($146) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $108</font>, Hero folds

[Eternal]

i'd raise flop to like 55-60 and fold to a shove

[Proofrock]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd raise flop to like 55-60 and fold to a shove

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty much turning TT into a bluff, right? Not that I think it's necessarily a bad plan, but I don't think I'm crazy about it here.

[SABR42]

You don't beat anything on the river, so fold.

I think raising the flop is ok.

[Woodsie]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't beat anything on the river, so fold.

I think raising the flop is ok.

[/ QUOTE ]

not saying you are wrong, but i am curious why villain can't have 99 here?

[AllTheCheese]

Not to answer for SAB, but he could have 99 here. However, beating so little of his range doesn't justify a call. Sorry if I'm misinterpreting.

[jetsetboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't beat anything on the river, so fold.

I think raising the flop is ok.

[/ QUOTE ]

not saying you are wrong, but i am curious why villain can't have 99 here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he is not value betting 99 here so would be nearly a pure bluff. If he is good he can also have 22 or 65s or 54s and decided to turn these hands into a bluff on the turn because our line looks a lot like an overpaire. But he can also have a set or something stupid like jacks. He can also have QJs and decided to bluff. The question is how often will he bluff here ? The answer is not enough to justify a call. With history you can call but there that's a really clear fold imo.

[Woodsie]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to answer for SAB, but he could have 99 here. However, beating exactly one hand in his range doesn't justify a call. Sorry if I'm misinterpreting.

[/ QUOTE ]

i am not saying its a call. i was just wondering why he couldn't have 99 here, esp. seeing how he lead into a preflop raiser.

[Woodsie]

[ QUOTE ]

Because he is not value betting 99 here so would be nearly a pure bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok thank you. that makes perfect sense.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
can't have 99 here?

[/ QUOTE ]
What jetset already said.

99 is no different from any other "bluff" hand, and he's very unlikely to bluff 3 streets like this.