*** OFFICIAL Thanksgiving NFL Games (11/22) ***

[ensign_lee]

SageStats ensign_lee

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Last week wasn't too bad. My two biggest plays collided and netted each other out (less juice) in the Texans game, with the first half going over, but the game not. But hey: the Texans WON!!! so I was happy. Weeeh!

I'm just about two units away from the black. Yay! Funny thing is, if you look at my breakeven winning percentage vs. my actual winning percentage (it's on that page), my winning percentage is higher than my breakeven winning percentage, which means that had I bet the same amount on every game, I'd be up, but since I didn't, I'm down. D'oh to me... hah.

Well, anyway, here we go.

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2-team parlay (+281):
IND -7 1st half
IND/ATL OVER 20.5 1st half
2 units at BetTrojan

I think that both of these bets are +EV in their own right, and then throw in the fact that should Indy cover the -7 in the first half, the total going over for the first half is more likely, then I made it a parlay. I hit the first half rather than the game because Indy has a tendency to let off the gas late in fourth quarters with big leads and I don't feel like having to worry about that.

However, I think I'm 0-2 now in betting first halves regarding Indianapolis, so feel free to take that for what it's worth.