NL100 He has JJ can I get him off it?

[bottomset]

not much of a read, but I feel reasonably strong that he is on some midpair hand here, pull the trigger?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 ($100.40)
MP2 ($103.10)
MP3 ($60.05)
CO ($89)
Hero ($107.50)
SB ($124.10)
BB ($152.75)
UTG ($40.65)
UTG+1 ($60.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $7.

Flop: ($21.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">CO bets $15</font>, Hero

[Semtex]

readless i'd say its 50/50 or worse. i don't try this readless when they bet so much of the pot on the flop

[Thrahl]

I only like this if you have a read that he can get away from an overpair on a flop of unders. Otherwise I dont like it. Especially on this board.

[Panthro]

dbitel theorem sir (nobody fold overpairs). You can always call and rep a paint/club turn?

[crunny]

I don't like it, especially if he knows you 3-bet light.

[RipperTEQ]

[ QUOTE ]
dbitel theorem sir (nobody fold overpairs). You can always call and rep a paint/club turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting. I'm not sure if this math adds up, but I've given it a shot.

If we assume on average of the 18 cards dealt, that over time they even out 25% for each suit, we can assume 4.5 cards of each suit that end up 'dead'. In other words, if we played 1 million hands, the average results would mean even number of suited cards dealt as starting hands.

So if we correctly assume together 9 collective diamond/club cards either dead or in play on board or in hero's hand, that leaves 26-9 = 17 diamond/club cards remaining. Add the 4 remaining non club A/K outs and there are (again on average) 21 cards that come on the turn that help us IF we can properly rep a club draw. If we turn a diamond, we've given ourselves extra outs with the nut flush. So 21 out of 47 cards = .447, close to half the cards in the deck now helping us. This is 2.2 to 1 odds and the pot is laying at 2.4 to 1 odds. We'd have to be fairly certain the villain would give respect to the draw, so I think it would work best against a tight/passive player than anything else. Seems like a good line if you've seen the villain get drawn out on recently.

[RipperTEQ]

Hmmm...this math is messed up because the 3 board cards are counted extra in the out cards, so it's actually lower. I'll have to think about this a bit more.

[SABR42]

Readless I think it's a terrible idea to raise here and try to get JJ/TT to fold.

I think calling is a better option than raising, because you will often get two free cards if you call. Folding is safest of course.

[chicken10der]

I hate these situations so much. I feel that leading into a 3bet is very often a hand they're willing to felt for 100 or less BBs, correctly or not. I haven't experimented with a push in these spots enough to suggest one here or not, though.

[BigBiceps]

Fold flop.

The potential club draw out there will make him more likely to call a flop raise with the overpair.