PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 5)

[Wes Mantooth]

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Why do you (Wes) have Chicago so high? They are 2-3, they have the worst offense in the NFL (or at least they are competing with SF for that distinction) and their defense is a wreck right now. It only ranks 17th in DVOA and this is the defensive side of their injury report:...

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I did put injuries and other factors like you mentioned into consideration. In addition, I think they could win 4 of the next 6 games, the Bears schedule is not that difficult. Over the next few weeks (maybe longer) evaluating how well some injured players perform after they come back and how the offense adjusting to Griese, could change things. Griese (QB rating of 78) is already an improvement over Grossman (45)... in addition I think his numbers will get better.

[kyro]

DVOA experts,

How in god's name is Tampa Bay ranked 6th in total offense? I must be missing something.

[PokerFink]

Rushing: 4.2ypc as a team. Very high success rate.

Graham: 58% success rate (5th)
Pittman: 54% success rate (9th)
Williams: 52% success rate (11th)

Passing: Garcia has 103.6 rating, 8.1ypa, 4td, 0int and has only taken 5 sacks

[kyro]

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Rushing: 4.2ypc as a team. They gain consistant yardage.

Graham: 58% success rate (5th)
Pittman: 54% success rate (9th)
Williams: 52% success rate (11th)

Passing: Garcia has 103.6 rating, 8.1ypa, 4td, 0int and has only taken 5 sacks

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1) Explain success rate to me. Success rate on 3rd and short?

2) Why aren't they scoring more? They're playing below average defenses. I had meant to ask last week how red zone play affects DVOA. Is red zone play viewed at similar to RISP in baseball?

[SL__72]

40% of yards needed for 1st/td on 1st down.
60% on 2nd down.
100% on 3rd or 4th.

# If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
# If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.

[PokerFink]

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1) Explain success rate to me. Success rate on 3rd and short?

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Edit: SL already explained it.

The overriding idea is that it's better to gain cosistant yardage than be a boom-or-bust type back. A high success rate means you're consistantly gaining the yardage needed for a first down or touchdown.

Success on 3rd/4th down and short is a different statistic called power runs.

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2) Why aren't they scoring more? They're playing below average defenses.

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That's a good question. It could be poor performance on third down, it could be poor performance in the red zone. I don't know, if someone has access to the FO premium database, they could look up those splits.

Matt Bryant is 6/7 on field goals, and all six makes are under 40 yards. So, yeah it's probably poor performance in the red zone.

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I had meant to ask last week how red zone play affects DVOA. Is red zone play viewed at similar to RISP in baseball?

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Red zone performance, like third down performance, has a bigger effect on the actual score of the game than your DVOA score. I think every play is more or less considered equal in DVOA.

Improved performance in the red zone and/or on third down is generally unsustainable. So teams that do better or worse are generally just running hot or cold.

The one thing that they've found is that good defensive performance in the red zone can be sustainable from year to year for certain teams. The Eagles (among others) fit that, which makes sense when you think about their scheme and personnel.

[kyro]

Awesome, thanks guys.

[kylephilly]

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i fully expect garcia to tank in the second half of the season

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So did all of Philadelphia last year