KK - deep nl10

[FullyBoat]

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I wouldn't be calling this unless he is a donk. The number of times the 4th raise has been AA for me in this spot...

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this is ridiculous... this is easily being raised by QQ JJ 10 10 AK AQ(maybe) 99... and u lose to AA...
lets look at what we beat... now look at what we lose to... lay it down if you want.. quote from a website...
"In a 6 handed game, you are dealt KK. You raise and an opponent reraises all-in. What are the chances that your opponent has AA"?

Coming back from the break, they said that the correct answer is 1/44. LOL and u want to fold

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The situation you described is much different from the situation hero has posted. If you bump it with KK and someone immediatly shoves their stack in, of course you call.

But a 4-bet preflop is a much different scenario.

[Bonesy]

Danny, my pokertracker says otherwise, but I agree with your logic.

[DannyOcean_]

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Even if his range is AA, AK, KK, and 1 time in 20 something random like Ax, we still have to call.

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I guess this is the crux of my argument. Readless, there is absolutely no way we can narrow down his range smaller than this. You are joking yourself if you think you can read souls, and this range is about as tight as it gets.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 11246602 900381.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 12637196 900381.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }


When you also factor in the random 1 in 20 Ax, and the pot odds, this has to be a call. I really don't think it's debateable.

[jk1986]

AA 50% - .2
KK 5% - .5
AK 25% - .7
QQ 15% - .8
AT 5% - .7

gives 45.5% equity.. Obv ppl won't agree with range, they never do. But this makes it a call, but the shove wouldn't have to be all that much bigger to make it a fold..

[jk1986]

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Even if his range is AA, AK, KK, and 1 time in 20 something random like Ax, we still have to call.

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I guess this is the crux of my argument. Readless, there is absolutely no way we can narrow down his range smaller than this. You are joking yourself if you think you can read souls, and this range is about as tight as it gets.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 11246602 900381.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 12637196 900381.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }


When you also factor in the random 1 in 20 Ax, and the pot odds, this has to be a call. I really don't think it's debateable.

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Danny surely you have to account for the fact that its more likely to be AA than the other parts of his range?

[ocdscale]

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"In a 6 handed game, you are dealt KK. You raise and an opponent reraises all-in. What are the chances that your opponent has AA"?

Coming back from the break, they said that the correct answer is 1/44. LOL and u want to fold

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There really needs to be a sticky about the use of probability. Thinking like this is garbage and causes people to lose a lot of money.
Suppose you have QTo (which is above average in terms of all-in equity). Someone shoves, do you say to yourself: lololol I'm above average, so I'll win this more times than I lose.
Or suppose you're playing with 1000BB stacks, and eventually facea 6bet-all-in by a nit. You have KK, do you say lololol, chances of AA is only 1/44, of course I call!
Or suppose you hold KK on a monochrome board of AKJT9, someone's been betting all the way and now shoves river. Do you say lololol two pair is the average winning hand, I'm above average here, I call!

Knowing the odds in a vacuum isn't a free pass to ignore everything else.

[FullyBoat]

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"In a 6 handed game, you are dealt KK. You raise and an opponent reraises all-in. What are the chances that your opponent has AA"?

Coming back from the break, they said that the correct answer is 1/44. LOL and u want to fold

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There really needs to be a sticky about the use of probability. Thinking like this is garbage and causes people to lose a lot of money.
Suppose you have QTo (which is above average in terms of all-in equity). Someone shoves, do you say to yourself: lololol I'm above average, so I'll win this more times than I lose.
Or suppose you're playing with 1000BB stacks, and eventually facea 6bet-all-in by a nit. You have KK, do you say lololol, chances of AA is only 1/44, of course I call!
Or suppose you hold KK on a monochrome board of AKJT9, someone's been betting all the way and now shoves river. Do you say lololol two pair is the average winning hand, I'm above average here, I call!

Knowing the odds in a vacuum isn't a free pass to ignore everything else.

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I agree. The statistic in itself seems kind of strange.

1/44 times that someone re-raises you pre-flop it's AA? Doesn't that depend on the villain's 3-betting range, the stakes, history between players, how drunk everyone is? etc.

[DMBFan23]

I don't know the right answer but I think you should have had the answer you planned to use when you reraised.

[Sean Fraley]

As a normal rule of thumb, I don't fold kings in the micros. On the other hand though, you are 200 BBs deep and facing a fourth raise so a fold isn't completely deplorable. I'd call it anyway though.

[jk1986]

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I don't know the right answer but I think you should have had the answer you planned to use when you reraised.

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I agree but its not my hand [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]