NL25 - NFD plus weak SD plus overcards vs big flop raise

[Triggerle]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $24.85
BB: $28.50
Hero (UTG): $26.10
CO: $42.35
BTN: $29.40

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, CO calls $1.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.80</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $7.75</font> Hero ??

Villian, like the whole table, was very tight. 15/12 over only 20 hands. I have been showing down ace-rag before and lost against an even lower ace-rag that hit his kicker on the river.

I suspect that I can stack-a-donk him if I hit my flush. Are the implied odds enough to call? Any value in a push with my combo draw plus overcards?

[Mike Kelley]

Against his prefop calling range assuming 15% of top hands here's what you got
Board: 2s 4s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.327% 60.82% 03.50% 100560 5792.00 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 35.673% 32.17% 03.50% 53186 5792.00 { 22+, A9s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }

When he RR's we have to eliminate a few of those hands.

Board: 2s 4s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.092% 45.32% 00.77% 34102 577.50 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 53.908% 53.14% 00.77% 39983 577.50 { 22+, KsQs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, AKo }

The suited cards are probably iffy on RR, but some play them strong for the fold equity/chance to turn a monster....

[traz]

I just go ahead and push it in. Being OOP sucks and you have FE against alot of hands against a tight player like this

[Spurious]

shove, w/o second thought

[wildzer0]

I would shove, you have enough fold equity against this type of villain to make it well worth it, and a flush card may kill your action.

[Ramana]

Stats are obv not representative, but I'd put him on a PP after his coldcall pf. FE makes a shove profitable.

[shoxbb6]

overs + gs + fd = all in

[Speedlimits]

just shove.

[Waingro]

Just shove, the clown probably has QQ or something.

[Cam5182]

shove.