Has EVERYTHING happened in poker?

[FlFishOn]

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There's maybe 10^30 deals. No doubt many have yet to dealt out.

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Oops, 10^40 is closer to the truth. Only missed it by ten. More like a ten trillion fold error. WOn't be my biggest today.

[Siegmund]

I make the number of distinct deals (suits matter) as 1.2x10^36 ~ 52!/(27! 2^10 * 6). Each of these, however, can have a very large number of betting sequences laid on top of it.

The expected number of trials to get every member of a set at least once is about N ln N -- so, we need time to deal about 10^38 hands before we have a good chance of having hit every one of them (even if the betting went differently!)

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But since each event in isolation seems likely to have occurred in the past,


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A simple failure of intuition. The biggest internet sites have dealt only a few billion hands in their lives; the internet sites and live games combined will be a few tens of billions of hands that have ever been dealt. This means that the chance of any given full deal having ever been dealt before anywhere is less than 10^-25.
That in turn means that the expected time until we see our FIRST duplicate hand is more than 10^12... in other words, most of us will live our WHOLE LIVES without EVER playing a single full-table deal that has ever been played before by anyone else.

[SamIAm]

If you're playing heads-up (I know the OP said 10max) and the suits don't matter, I'm sure there have been some identical hands.

Like, I'm sure the scenario "SB gets 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB gets A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB folds preflop" has happened many times, especially if you can permute the suits.
-Sam

[Siegmund]

Yes, with only a million ways for two people to be dealt hands, the same preflop action has happened many times. With about 55 trillion complete heads-up deals (52!/43!2!2!3!) there are still a great many heads-up hands that have never been seen, but a regular heads-up player will run into ones that have been dealt before somewhere every month or two, and is likely to see a few hands twice over his own lifetime.

[JustBeginning]

Just as an example, has anyone actually hear of this:
K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] against A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] preflop.
Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (I think people may see where this is going)
Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
River: who cares (but actually this would have to have happened with every single card on the river, so 44 times, not to mention the different stages of the previous cards coming out and different starting hands.)

[MCS]

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Just as an example, has anyone actually hear of this:
K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] against A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] preflop.

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Whoa, AA has a big edge here. Let's see the flop.

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Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (I think people may see where this is going)

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Quads! Yeah, I see where it's going. AA is about to get PAID IN FULL.

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Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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OMG!!!!!!! What a suckout!!!!!!

Man, I wouldn't want to be the player with AA here.

[alphatmw]

i open fold the turn face up when i have AA there because you have the implied odds that someone has the royal flush and will tilt off for the next 5 hours.

[SamIAm]

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OMG!!!!!!! What a suckout!!!!!!

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OMG indeed. I barely feel your 7 and 6 exclamation points did it justice. I mean, man! What're the chances?!
-Sam !!!!!!!!

[stadler]

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[ QUOTE ]
Just as an example, has anyone actually hear of this:
K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] against A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] preflop.

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Whoa, AA has a big edge here. Let's see the flop.

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Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (I think people may see where this is going)

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Quads! Yeah, I see where it's going. AA is about to get PAID IN FULL.

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Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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OMG!!!!!!! What a suckout!!!!!!

Man, I wouldn't want to be the player with AA here.

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Unless it was a BBJ table.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
Just as an example, has anyone actually hear of this:
K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] against A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] preflop.
Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (I think people may see where this is going)
Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
River: who cares (but actually this would have to have happened with every single card on the river, so 44 times, not to mention the different stages of the previous cards coming out and different starting hands.)

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This happened to me in a home game once. I was dealing and had the aces. I hit the fifth ace on the river, and man was my buddy pissed at the suckout.