Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
Setup
$650 PokerStars Qualifier for the PokerStars Carribean Adventure (PCA)
9-Handed
Blinds 10/20
Hero is Strassa
No reads on villain

Stacks
Hero (CO) t2540
BB t3245

Pre-Flop
All fold to hero who has 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raises to t80. Button and SB fold. BB calls t60.

Flop
Pot: t170

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks. Action is on the hero.

Pre-Flop and Flop Questions

1) A lot of people talk about playing tight early and don't try to steal blinds when they are this small. What do you think about blind stealing at this level? Would you do it and if so under what conditions?

2) What's your decision on the flop? Do you check or bet (and if so, how much)?

3) What's your plan on the turn (if any) based on your decision on the flop, the villain's action, and what card comes?

4) Any other thoughts at this point?

[/ QUOTE ]

1. It's not necessarily blind stealing. There's little to gain this early on by stealing blinds. Instead, you're hoping to have a well disguised holding, and trap another player who puts you on a more premium set of cards.

2. Well, the Big blind called us out of position, with a larger stack. He may just as easily be playing cards similar to our own, hoping that we're on high cards and a raggedy flop might allow him to win some chips (especially if we're on an overpair).

In this instance, we have flopped bottom two pair, which, heads-up, is pretty strong. But, it's not impossible for our opponent to hold 6/8 and/or the flush draw as well.

I would likely lead out with a continuation bet of 75-100 chips, make it look like we missed but we're hoping to take it down now. If our opponent raises us, it's likely he's hit a piece of this flop, perhaps just a draw. At that point, we can re-raise him and potentially get paid off if he's hit top pair.

If we bet and he just smooth-calls, he's either drawing or looking to take it away from us on the turn. I don't like checking and allowing a free card, bet and hope he either folds or raises so you can re-raise.

3. Luckily on the turn we'll still hold position on our opponent. So depending on what card falls (bringing a much stronger straight or flush possibility, or trip 9's, etc.) we can act accordingly (i.e. with caution) if necessary.

4. No other thoughts at this point.

[Paul Thomson]

Thanks to Loyd and the panel of judges.

Question: What do you think about blind stealing at this level? Would you do it and if so under what conditions?

Accumulating chips at all stages of the tournament is the key to winning, this obiviously includes the first level. I not only support blind stealing but also raising limpers and reraising raisers. In other words, Strassa should be looking to get involved in pots more than the average tight player. There are three main reasons for this:
1) The blinds in an internet tournament rise quickly. Therefore, it's imperative for all players to continuously accumulate chips. Unless the deck hits you, then you must get involved and out play your opponents or push marginal situations.
2) Strassa is a better player than the field, so he should be looking to get involved in pots where he can use his skill to his advantage. Now he should probably avoid other good tournament players (such as the expert panel for this hand), but he should pick out the weak player and look for getting involved with them. This will probably take the form of playing more flops.
3) Shania
Now these are all reasons to get involved early, not necessarily to steal the bilnd.

I would raise this hand everytime at this level if it was folded to me. Now my goal isn't to "steal the blinds". Increasing my stack by 1.5 BB is insignificant at this stage of the tournament with such deep stacks. Instead, my goal is to evaluate how the players behind me we'll behave in this situation in the future and/or to keep my opponents off balance and/or to win a big pot. Let's look at these three reasons separately:
1) I get to observe the dynamic between the CO-Button-SB-BB when I raise preflop. This is important because I want to see how my opponents react when I raise preflop from the CO. For exmaple, will the button try and reraise me off my hand assuming that I am stealing. We'll the SB & BB defend their blinds? How we'll they defend them? We'll they call or reraise? Do they then fold easily to a continuation bet on the flop? etc. This is important information to begin collecting at the beginning of the tournament.
2) I keep my opponents off balance by raising with marginal hands. Which we'll make it harder for my opponents to put me on a hand. It'll also help get me paid off on my bigger hands.
3) By raising with suited connectors and small pairs, I can play a bigger pot in position which I can get paid off with if the flop hits me hard.

However, the effectiveness of this strategy is in the details of its execution.
In early position: I'd either fold this hand 80% of the time and make a small raise of 2-2.5x the BB 20% of the time. I'd play all pairs and AK or AQs. The reason, I would play all pairs is that they're easy to play out of position, whereas drawing hands are a bitch. The raise is small because I want to play smaller pots out of position.

In mid position, I'd raise 3x the BB with this hand 50% of the time and call the other 50% of the time. If a weak player limped from early position, I'll usually raise to isolate them. If a weak player raised from early position, I would be inclined to call.

In late position, I'm raising 4x the BB when it's folded to me. I'm raising no matter how many limpers are in front of me. I don't mind playing speculative drawing hands if I'm in position. The stacks are deep and I want to play a big pot.

I wish I knew what the other stacks at the table were? And what the average stack in the tournament is? But I do know that the BB has a larger chip stack and I need to win a few big pots to take control of the table. This is as good as a spot to start as any.

If the Button or the binds repop it, I'll probably call 99% of the time. Maybe a little less likely with the button, since I'll be out ot position.

I'll include something Gigabet wrote in a post:
[ QUOTE ]
If I really want to make the hand worthwhile, I will have to induce flop action, and play the hand very deep and very aggressive, after which, one of two things will happen.....I will take down a decent sized pot, which will allow me to take advantage of the other stacks quite liberally, or I will not take the pot down, which will force me to wait for good situations to arise for me to get involved, ie., I cannot "make" anything happen, without risking my tournament life.

[/ QUOTE ] In, other words, accumulating chips inorder to control the action at the table is the key to winning.

Putting the opponent on a hand. Since we have no reads on our opponent, he could more or less have anything. But I am inclined to put him on medium pairs and a little less likely medium suited connectors.


Flop: No matter what came on the flop if the BB checked to me, then I would bet. In the future, I'd add some checking behind to change gears. But right now I want to find out how my opponent reacts to a continuation bet/value bet.

Now the size of my bet depends on the texture of the board and how it hit me and how I suspect it hit my opponent. Even though we have a good hand, it's steal very vulnerable on this board. I'd feel better on this board if we had top two pair.
1) If the flop comes King high rainbow with no draws, then I'd probably throw out a bet between 1/2 - 2/3 the size of the pot. This is the same size bet I'd make if I had trips on this board or missed completely.
2) On a courdinated board like this one, I'd bet something between 3/4 to full size bet. Since this board is highly coordinated (flush draw + straight draws), I'd lean toward a full size bet. The only hesitation is that I suspect it probably hit my opponent as well. I put him on a medium pair or medium suited connector which means he could easily have a hand such as a pair with a good draw (7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 98, 76, T:hear:J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], etc) or I could be beat by a set or a made straight. So I actually want to keep the pot small until I see if a good turn card comes off. Because he might bet a scare card. The vast majority of draws give him 8-9 outs, so I don't want him to get odds of 3-1 or better. I'd bet 100 ~ 120.

My Line:
Scenario 1) If he check-raise...This is what I would do if I were him with a flush draw or straight draw or pair with a gut draw. The reason is that as the opponent you have us covered and chips. And if a scare card comes on the turn then I want to be able to make a big enough bet that will scare my opponent into folding even if it doesn't make my hand. So if I were him, I'd probably raise 4-4.5x the size of our bet depending on the size of our bet. If I were him, I'd want us to fear that we're going to have to be ready to go broke.

I'd call.
Turn: If a horrible scare card comes on the turn that completes both the a straight draw and a flushdraw or maybe even a 9.

Action to me: Opponent checks.
Action: I chech behind. And I'll call practically any river bet that isn't an all-in or larger than a pot size bet.

Action to me: Opponent bets half the pot into me.
Action: This is a tough situation. One that separates the champions from the great players...and the fact of the matter is that I'm not really either. In a live game, I'd probably start looking for tells. Online it's a tough call. I'd probably make that bet if I had made my hand or had a set. All of which I can't beat. Although I have some outs to a flush or straight draw. I don't think I'm really getting the odds to call and get paid off. And I also could be drawing dead. To make matters worst, if I call here i'm more or less committing myself to making a small call on the river.

Now even though I said that accumulating chips is the key to winning. A negative situation with this hand has arisen. To quote gigabet again, "Another problem with playing aggressively in this situation, is that with every chip that I lose, I may actually be losing two chips. With all the stacks at my table being essentially even, it is very important to try and stay "even" with them, if you get into a situation that will double you, every chip that you had lost before almost doubles in value, because they are not there to "double" through. "

Action: I would fold. And then wait for a good hand to double up with.

Scenario2: Any card that completes a single draw or a blank.

Action to me: opponent checks.
Action: I bet half the pot.
If opponent calls. And then checks to me on the river, I'll bet even if a scare card comes. If opponent calls the turn, and then bets into me on the river when a scare card comes...I reevaluate, but probably call if the bet is small enough.

Turn: Any card that completes a single draw or a blank.
Action to me: opponent bets half the pot.
Action: I call. And I plan on calling another bet on the river. I think this line induces a bet from your opponent on the river. Whereas, he'd simply fold a worst hand to a raise on the turn.

That's about it. I'm looking forward to see how things turn out. Thanks agin to Loyd and the panel of judges.

[Paul Thomson]

On the way home, I kept thinking about the hand and I came up with a line that I think might have some merit that most people won't think about. I think our hand has the potential to win a small pot and quickly become second best and lose a big pot.

Flop: We bet 130.
Opponent raises to 450.
Action: We call:
Pot has $1,070

The line that scares me the most which I stated in my original post is:
If he check-raise...This is what I would do if I were him with a flush draw or straight draw or pair with a gut draw. The reason is that as the opponent you have us covered and chips. And if a scare card comes on the turn then I want to be able to make a big enough bet that will scare my opponent into folding even if it doesn't make my hand. So if I were him, I'd probably raise 4-4.5x the size of our bet depending on the size of our bet. If I were him, I'd want us to fear that we're going to have to be ready to go broke.

Turn: Any card.
Action to me: Opponent bets 550.
Action: We call.
Pot has $2,170

River: Any card.
Action to us: Opponent bets 700.
Actio??

We have 1450 left and unless we caught a 7 or a 5, there is little chance that we are still ahead. And even then we could be behind a better full house.

On the other hand, if the opponent bets this way he could still fold on the river with a chip stack of $1465.

The point being is that you won't know where you're at the whole time. Because everybet looks like the nuts or a broken draw. So every decision will be difficult.

So if I was playing against an aggressive good opponent like Daniel Negreanu or Gigabet. I'd take a line that would preserve my chips and try and induce a bluff from my opponent:

On the flop:
Action to me: opponent checks.
Action: I check behind.

The idea is to see a turn card. And if it's a good card to either bet or raise. And if it's a scare card then to simply call. And then do the same on the river.

Scares cards being: Any heart, 9,8,6
Good Cards being: AKQJT75234

For example:
Turn: scare card
Action to me: My opponent bets half the pot.
Action: I call.

Turn: NON-Scare Card.
Action to me: My opponent checks.
Action: I bet half the pot.

Turn: NON-Scare Card.
Actoin to me: Opponent bets 1/3 of the pot.
Action: I raise 3x his bet, so he won't be getting the proper odds to draw to an 8 or 9 outter.

Turn: Non-Scare Card.
Action to me: Opponent bets 1/2 the pot.
Action. I call. Since there is no point in raising since his bet won't give him the proper odds to draw at a flush or straight draw or pair wiht a gut draw. And a raise will only hurt me if I'm behind.

River: I call nearly any bet.

So I think this line could have merit against an aggressive player, who plas the flop well. You're inducing your opponent to bluff if he doesn't have a hand. And even if he makes a hand, then you lose fewer chips. Most importantly by keeping the pot small, you make it difficult for your opponent to bluff you out of the pot, since he has you covered.

[mlagoo]

the problem is, just calling cards "scare cards" when youve done nothing to define your opponents hand is not.. winning poker, i guess.

i mean, he could have KQ offsuit here. he could have anything. having checked through the flop, why would any particular card be a "scare card?" maybe a 2 makes him a set. are we scared of a 2?

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
the problem is, just calling cards "scare cards" when youve done nothing to define your opponents hand is not.. winning poker, i guess.

i mean, he could have KQ offsuit here. he could have anything. having checked through the flop, why would any particular card be a "scare card?" maybe a 2 makes him a set. are we scared of a 2

[/ QUOTE ]

You're totally right. I played with a couple different range of hands to get at what would be a scare card. I did some math as to what his pot equity would be, odds given his range, etc.

Here was my basic thought. The only hands I don't like giving free cards to are pocket pairs that would fold before the flop, these include pocket 22,33,44. And I don't want to give a free card to TT-AA who I could value bet. Although I think QQ-AA are less likely given the preflop action. Pocket 66, 88 I wouldn't want to give free cards to either with 6 outs to us.

Hands I don't mind giving a free card to are.
8-9 outs: any flush draw, 67, 56, 46, 8T, 78, 89,
we're behind: 8hTh, 6h4h, 5h6h, 86, 77, 55, 99

Although we don't have a read on the Villian, I'm inclined to put him on medium pocket pairs or medium suited conectors. In other words, hands I don't mind giving a free card.

But what really surprised me is kinda what you hinted at, any card could be a scare card. And since this is the case, the villian can feel free to play at me the rest of the hand. And I won't know where I'm at. So I'd rather keep the pot small and let him do the betting for me.

The biggest problem about giving a free card in the line that I provided is that you give an opponent who called with a small pair (such as pocket deuces) a free card to hit a set, who would have otherwise folded to a flop bet. However, any other hand that you're opponent would reasonably play, would have at the minimum 8-9 outs, except for over cards such as TT-AA (but I think QQ-AA are less likely. But maybe not). I think giving a free card to a two outter is worth the risk if that same two outter will bet into you on the turn even if he misses.

Gotta run. But I'll try and put some numbers together tomorrow. I'm not sure the numbers I have are correct or I would have originally posted them. I work on a mac and can't use Pokerstove on this computer. Feel free to flame away. I'm not sure if it's correct, but I think there could be something to it.

[allenciox]

Paul, great analyses... I learned a lot from reading your posts. Your analysis helped me understand a bit better why the pros on the World Poker Tour, etc. often check behind in situations like this... an idea that to my more "basic" thinking has always seemed absurd since they are giving a free card. Thanks a lot.

[grossmeyer]

Just a few comments on your long post...

Like most everyone else has said, betting the flop is the default play. I'd probably bet about 100 here. But I like the idea of checking too. Since it's early, a check may induce a bluff on the turn if a non-broadway card hits, and they may think we whiffed with our A-K. If I do check behind and a heart hits, I'm not really afraid of them having a flush (very afraid though if a fourth heart comes), and I'd probably do my CB here. If I get raised, I'll definitely call, but might 3-bet if I was feeling gutsy from my read.

Can't wait to see the turn.

-Gross

[beenben]

1) I don't generally steal on stars until the ante level or maybe one before it.

2) It's a mistake to trap with bottom two pair. but be aware that you're behind to a big blind special straight and there's a potential heart draw, potential slow played sets and overcards. So I bet to get information. Bet 120.

3) My plan on the turn would be to fire again, regardless of the card. Probably 200.

4) there's a wide range of hands the BB could call here.

[allenciox]

I am responding before reading any other responses or any of the subsequent posts (so I don't know whether other people have already said what I say here or not).

1) I like this bet. I don't care whether it is early or not, if you only raise with premium hands in late position then you are easy to read. You have to mix it up with non-premium hands. My favorite ones to do it with are the small connectors, esp. suited. If you get called you are likely not called by a dominated hand, and still have position, so additional money in the pot generally helps you more than hurts you. I would routinely make the same play.

2) You have to bet. If you don't bet when you hit after raising pre-flop who is going to believe your continuation bets when you miss? Besides, this is a draw-heavy board --- you don't want to give him a free card to potential draws. I would bet 100 here. If he check-raises me, I call after thinking about it 15 seconds(after all he could already have a made straight)

3) Assuming that villian calls my flop bet, I will put him on either a drawing hand (there are tons of possibilities) or a small pair. If a blank comes on the turn and he checks, I would bet 300 or so to scare away his drawing hand. If he bets, I would raise, again to scare away a draw. If a hand hits that could have made his hand (a third heart, or a 6,8, T, or J, for example) then I will proceed more cautiously. If he bets in that case, I will think about it and flat call, with the plan to flat call a reasonable bet on the river but be ready to let it go if I am convinced he made his hand. If he checks, I will still bet, but a check-raise in that case would be a dead giveaway. I would still likely call a reasonable reraise, (I could fill up on the end) but not if I am convinced he has made his hand and I don't have pot odds to draw to a boat. The final possibility is that the turn card gives me a boat (particularly delicious if it is also a heart). In that case, I slowplay it. If he checks, I check, hoping to set him on the river (particularly hoping he makes his hand then because he will pay). If he bets, I would smooth call unless it is a small feeler bet, in which case I would make a small feeler raise.

4. Good questions.