10r: Deepstack w/ AK

GutPunch · #1 07-06-2007, 12:16 AM

Reads: Original raiser is a tard, BB has been playing fairly TAG, I dont think he has shown down anything. My image is fairly agressive, as ive been involved in quite a few pots (usually w/ the goods)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t3980)
SB (t11570)
BB (t22160)
UTG (t11000)
UTG+1 (t21592)
MP1 (t8980)
MP2 (t17010)
MP3 (t11600)
Hero (t30910)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t600, 3 folds, MP3 calls t600, Hero raises to t3600, 2 folds, BB raises to t12000, UTG folds, MP3 folds, Hero??

RonFezBuddy · #2 07-06-2007, 12:23 PM

This is a very tough spot. I have trouble with it as well so I am interested in what others have to say.

There is about 6k in the pot when BB raises. His raise makes the pot $18k. It will cost you $8400 for a pot of $18k. You are getting better than 2-1. Seems like an easy call.

The problem is what happens after the flop. Assuming the button goes in for his last 10k you are probably committed here. So your implied odds are really paying $18.4k for a pot of $28k. Now you are less than 2-1. You are about 1.5 - 1

That all being said, his range indicates to me a non-monster top pair or AK. He probably makes a smaller raise with AA or KK. He probably calls with set odds with anything lower than 10 10. AK is a good hand here and sometimes you are lucky and see AQ here, depending on the buyin. 10 10, JJ and QQ want this pot now.

I'd say a TAG range is 10-10, JJ, QQ, AK, AQ.

I don't have pokerstove here but I am guessing you are getting better than 1.5 - 1 to shove against that assigned range. And of course you want to see 5 cards with AK so don't just call.

Pokerfarian · #3 07-06-2007, 12:49 PM

Do I want to invest 18560 for a chance to win a pot of 22160x2+600+600+150 = 45670? I do if have a better than 18560/45670 = 40.6% chance to win. If he's never pushing worse than TT+,AK, you can just fold but I don't believe that, I'm going to assign a larger range than that to an unknown in the 10R and shove my cheeps in.

Sherman · #4 07-06-2007, 12:52 PM

What to do lies in the answer of this question:

Does BB ever do this with AQ?

If not, I think we have a relatively easy fold. I know I generally advocate never folding AK PF, but that is because it is often impossible to rule AQ out of a villain's range. In this case, it seems that we may have enough evidence (mostly because we are so deep) to rule AQ out of his range.

If so, I think we have a fold. I think most villains would tend to smoother call with hands as strong as AK or JJ here. I think we can be pretty confident given reads, the action, and the stack depth that we are beat here and don't have enough layover to shove it anyway.

RonFezBuddy · #5 07-06-2007, 12:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do I want to invest 18560 for a chance to win a pot of 22160x2+600+600+150 = 45670? I do if have a better than 18560/45670 = 40.6% chance to win. If he's never pushing worse than TT+,AK, you can just fold but I don't believe that, I'm going to assign a larger range than that to an unknown in the 10R and shove my cheeps in.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not an unknown...he's a TAG. You gotta trust your reads. Even still I'd shove because I think TT+, AK gives you enough odds with the overlay. 18k from this point to win 28k. And hey who knows, he may even fold to your shove because his tourney life is on the line and people do things like that.

Sherman · #6 07-06-2007, 01:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do I want to invest 18560 for a chance to win a pot of 22160x2+600+600+150 = 45670? I do if have a better than 18560/45670 = 40.6% chance to win. If he's never pushing worse than TT+,AK, you can just fold but I don't believe that, I'm going to assign a larger range than that to an unknown in the 10R and shove my cheeps in.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not an unknown...he's a TAG. You gotta trust your reads. Even still I'd shove because I think TT+, AK gives you enough odds with the overlay. 18k from this point to win 28k. And hey who knows, he may even fold to your shove because his tourney life is on the line and people do things like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is possible. Okay, I'll stove it. Someone else do the rest of the maths. Assume hero shoves and BB always calls:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.392% 27.16% 13.23% 184165620 89723532.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 59.608% 46.38% 13.23% 314459700 89723532.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }

With AQ included (although I still don't think it is likely):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.175% 38.86% 10.32% 359277240 95413566.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 50.825% 40.51% 10.32% 374539788 95413566.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Finally, the range I think BB actually has:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.824% 18.14% 20.68% 78295380 89232168.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 61.176% 40.50% 20.68% 174740892 89232168.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Pokerfarian · #7 07-06-2007, 01:02 PM

If is his range is TT+,AKo,AKs then AKo is 40.3%, pot odds say you need 40.6 so it's actually just a fold there. For me "fairly TAG" isn't enough of a read to say he can't do this with AQ so I make a very close call.

SonofDjugashvili · #8 07-06-2007, 01:14 PM

I disagree with calling - you cannot call. He will obviously shove that flop no matter what, and what are you going to do if it comes 337? AK wants to see 5 cards, so, if you are playing, push it in now. Now, as to his range, if he is a TAG, this raise for just more than 1/2 his stack is either an indication of stupidity or of AA/KK. Unless, you have some particular knowledge to indicate he is a tool, fold.

ImOnWheels · #9 07-06-2007, 01:22 PM

I think this is a clear fold unless like it was said above the bb can do this with a lesser ace. This situation is a leak in my game I think. I would normally just push this without thinking. BB will turn over QQ+ so often here... probably more KK+. I personally would just push QQ in teh BB instead of raising half my stack. If you flat call you he is pushing on any flop. Push pf or fold.. but i think fold is far superior. Results??

Dave D · #10 07-06-2007, 01:22 PM

Yeah, this is clearly push or fold.

Like Sherman I pretty much never say to fold KA. However, with the read you have it may be possible.

What worries me the most is the fact that he raised half his stack. It seems to say push over my AA please. If he'd pushed this would be an easier call.