Vulnerable House Internet Poker Opponents

[Skallagrim]

In the Senate, John Sununu is already running afraid in New Hampshire. He has made some attempts to distance himself from the rest of the republicans on civil rights issues, and is very afraid that the Iraq war will send him home just like it did both of NH's representatives last fall.

Perhaps he can be made to see that support from a few thousand poker players could make the difference (actually, unless he backs off his war support, it probabaly wont). I will write him and report his response here.

I will also write whomever the Dems nominate to run against him.

Skallagrim

[TheEngineer]

The following congressmen voted for HR 4411 and won reelection in 2006 with <55% of the vote:

Rick Renzi (R-AZ) 54%
John Doolittle (R-CA) 49.9%
Brian Bilbray (R-CA) 53.2%
Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO) 45.6%
Chris Shays (R-CT) 50.9%
Ric Keller (R-FL) 52.8%
Jim Marshall (D-GA) 50.5% (unlikely to be opposed by someone on our side, though)
John Barrow (D-GA) 50.3% (unlikely to be opposed by someone on our side, though)
Melissa Bean (D-IL) 50.9%
Mark Kirk (R-IL) 53.4%
Mark Souder (R-IN) 54.3%
Leonard Boswell (D-IA) 51.8%
Geoff Davis (R-KY) 51.7%
William Jefferson (D-LA) 30.1% (56.6% in run-off) [>55%, but very vulnerable]
Charlie Melancon (D-LA) 55.0%
Joe Knollenberg (R-MI) 51.6%
Thad McCotter (R) 54.1%
Lee Terry (R-NE) 54.7%
Mike Ferguson (R-NJ) 49.4%
Heather Wilson (R-NM) 50.2%
Jim Walsh (R-NY) 50.8%
Tom Reynolds (R-NY) 52.0%
Randy Kuhl (R-NY) 51.5%
Robin Hayes (R-NC) 50.1%
Steve Chabot (R-OH) 52.3%
Jean Schmidt (R-OH) 50.5%
Deborah Pryce (R-OH) 50.2%
Darlene Hooley (D-OR) 54.0%
Phil English (R-PA) 53.6%
Jim Gerlach (R-PA) 50.7%
Charles Dent (R-PA) 53.6%
Thelma Drake (R-VA) 51.3%
Dave Reichert (R-WA) 51.5%
Barbara Cubin (R-WY) 48.3%

[TheEngineer]

[ QUOTE ]
The following congressmen voted for HR 4411 and won reelection in 2006 with <55% of the vote...

[/ QUOTE ]

So, it seems there are a few things to do with this info. First of all, if your congressman is on this list, he/she will be far more interested in your opinion (especially if you are a member of his/her party) than will someone who runs unopposed every time (but we need to write to them as well, of course).

As for who to oppose, it seems the ones from states where both major parties are strong (i.e., Ohio and Pennsylvalia reps are more vulnerable than are Georgia ones). Also, not everyone who voted for HR 4411 is against IGREA. Some just wanted regulation, like Peter King and Emanuel Cleaver (neither on this list), and support IGREA. Others are working hard against us. So, here's my first cut (in no particular order):

Rick Renzi (R-AZ). Renzi is currently under federal investigation for his involvement in a land-swap deal. On April 19, 2007, the FBI raided his family business, and he temporarily resigned from the House Intelligence Committee. On April 27 Renzi denied printed claims he was considering resigning office.

John Doolittle (R-CA). Tied to Abramoff scandal. Voted against us once he wasn't (allegedly) getting paid to vote for us.

Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO). The Christian Coalition has ranked Musgrave's voting record at '100%' in support of the pro-Christian Coalition legislation listed on their scorecard (which includes Internet gaming).

Ric Keller (R-FL). Consistently against us. Appears he'll have strong challengers in 2008.

Mark Souder (R-IN)

Leonard Boswell (D-IA)

Joe Knollenberg (R-MI). You all read his letter to us.

Chris Shays (R-CT). Good target here, especially as he's so vehemently against us.

Geoff Davis (R-KY). Another good target, especially if former Rep. Ken Lucas runs against him again. Also, supports the horse carve-out for UIGEA.

William Jefferson (D-LA). He'll probably be in jail by 2008. This is a good shot for us (either against him for for an open seat).

Steve Chabot (R-OH) 52.3%. Ohio is a good state for us, I think. It's becoming more progressive and libertarian, especially with regards to social conservatism.

Jean Schmidt (R-OH) 50.5% Memorably called 38-year Marine Corps veteran Rep. John Murtha a coward for advocating leaving Iraq.

Deborah Pryce (R-OH) 50.2%. OSU, plus regular Ohio voters, make her seat vulnerable.

Heather Wilson (R-NM). Currently, she is under a preliminary investigation by the House Ethics Committee over whether she made inappropriate contact with the United States Attorney for the District of New Mexico by inquiring, shortly before an election in which she faced a stiff challenge, on the status of a corruption investigation involving a Democratic politician.

Jim Walsh (R-NY) 50.8%. NY is my kind of state, seeing how many are with us on IGREA.

Tom Reynolds (R-NY) 52.0%

Phil English (R-PA) 53.6%

Jim Gerlach (R-PA) 50.7%

Charles Dent (R-PA) 53.6%

Randy Kuhl (R-NY) 51.5%

Many of the others are good targets, too. That's just my first cut.

FYI: Charlie Melancon (D-LA) is cosponsoring IGREA

[CountingMyOuts]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The following congressmen voted for HR 4411 and won reelection in 2006 with <55% of the vote...

[/ QUOTE ]

So, it seems there are a few things to do with this info. First of all, if your congressman is on this list, he/she will be far more interested in your opinion (especially if you are a member of his/her party) than will someone who runs unopposed every time (but we need to write to them as well, of course).

As for who to oppose, it seems the ones from states where both major parties are strong (i.e., Ohio and Pennsylvalia reps are more vulnerable than are Georgia ones). Also, not everyone who voted for HR 4411 is against IGREA. Some just wanted regulation, like Peter King and Emanuel Cleaver (neither on this list), and support IGREA. Others are working hard against us. So, here's my first cut (in no particular order):

Rick Renzi (R-AZ). Renzi is currently under federal investigation for his involvement in a land-swap deal. On April 19, 2007, the FBI raided his family business, and he temporarily resigned from the House Intelligence Committee. On April 27 Renzi denied printed claims he was considering resigning office.

John Doolittle (R-CA). Tied to Abramoff scandal. Voted against us once he wasn't (allegedly) getting paid to vote for us.

Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO). The Christian Coalition has ranked Musgrave's voting record at '100%' in support of the pro-Christian Coalition legislation listed on their scorecard (which includes Internet gaming).

Ric Keller (R-FL). Consistently against us. Appears he'll have strong challengers in 2008.

Mark Souder (R-IN)

Leonard Boswell (D-IA)

Joe Knollenberg (R-MI). You all read his letter to us.

Chris Shays (R-CT). Good target here, especially as he's so vehemently against us.

Geoff Davis (R-KY). Another good target, especially if former Rep. Ken Lucas runs against him again. Also, supports the horse carve-out for UIGEA.

William Jefferson (D-LA). He'll probably be in jail by 2008. This is a good shot for us (either against him for for an open seat).

Steve Chabot (R-OH) 52.3%. Ohio is a good state for us, I think. It's becoming more progressive and libertarian, especially with regards to social conservatism.

Jean Schmidt (R-OH) 50.5% Memorably called 38-year Marine Corps veteran Rep. John Murtha a coward for advocating leaving Iraq.

Deborah Pryce (R-OH) 50.2%. OSU, plus regular Ohio voters, make her seat vulnerable.

Heather Wilson (R-NM). Currently, she is under a preliminary investigation by the House Ethics Committee over whether she made inappropriate contact with the United States Attorney for the District of New Mexico by inquiring, shortly before an election in which she faced a stiff challenge, on the status of a corruption investigation involving a Democratic politician.

Jim Walsh (R-NY) 50.8%. NY is my kind of state, seeing how many are with us on IGREA.

Tom Reynolds (R-NY) 52.0%

Phil English (R-PA) 53.6%

Jim Gerlach (R-PA) 50.7%

Charles Dent (R-PA) 53.6%

Randy Kuhl (R-NY) 51.5%

Many of the others are good targets, too. That's just my first cut.

FYI: Charlie Melancon (D-LA) is cosponsoring IGREA

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent list.

It will be very hard to have Steve Chabot (R-OH) "leached" out of office, as he has Cincinnati in his district, which is in the second most Republican county in the U.S. behind Orange County in CA.

Heather Wilson is a prime target and her opponent in the last election was an idiot and nearly beat her anyway. Besides our issue here, I'd like to see her ousted also because of her crying on the House floor about her kids seeing the Janet Jackson Super Bowl incident on television. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[BluffTHIS!]

Engineer,

I would like to make two points here. The first is that your winnowing of the list is very good, as you might as well just forget "targeting" in the deep south where it's often hard to tell a democrat from a republican. The excpetion would be in larger urban areas.

And the second is that before posters here "target" those that backed the IUGEA, they should consider writing to those congressmen and asking them to reconsider, at least for poker, based on the various arguments we have discussed in this forum. After all there have been some who now are on our side, including a couple surprising ones. Then if the response of that congressman is negative to such a an appeal to reconsider, only then to target him. After all as mentioned, incumbancy is very strong, and we are better off with an incumbant who supports our efforts and legislation like that of Reps. Frank and Wexler, than we are with trying to unseat such an incumbant.

[TheEngineer]

[ QUOTE ]
Excellent list.

It will be very hard to have Steve Chabot (R-OH) "leached" out of office, as he has Cincinnati in his district, which is in the second most Republican county in the U.S. behind Orange County in CA.

Heather Wilson is a prime target and her opponent in the last election was an idiot and nearly beat her anyway. Besides our issue here, I'd like to see her ousted also because of her crying on the House floor about her kids seeing the Janet Jackson Super Bowl incident on television. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks! I agree that the area is somewhat Republican. However, Chabot had a pretty tough fight last time, as did Davis, Schmidt, and many other Republicans in the region. It's not Alabama, that's for sure. Obviously we'll know more as challengers step forward, but he won't run unopposed, that's for sure. I hope we can do something here.

I agree on Heather Wilson. That was ridiculous.

[TheEngineer]

[ QUOTE ]
I would like to make two points here. The first is that your winnowing of the list is very good, as you might as well just forget "targeting" in the deep south where it's often hard to tell a democrat from a republican. The excpetion would be in larger urban areas.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. It's good to know where to concentrate our energy, either in getting an incumbant to flip, or in finding one to Leach.

[ QUOTE ]
And the second is that before posters here "target" those that backed the IUGEA, they should consider writing to those congressmen and asking them to reconsider, at least for poker, based on the various arguments we have discussed in this forum. After all there have been some who now are on our side, including a couple surprising ones. Then if the response of that congressman is negative to such a an appeal to reconsider, only then to target him. After all as mentioned, incumbancy is very strong, and we are better off with an incumbant who supports our efforts and legislation like that of Reps. Frank and Wexler, than we are with trying to unseat such an incumbant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. My first statement was that these congressmen will likely be more interested in the opinions of their constituents. The elections aren't for a while, so we should be communicating with these guys to see if they'll work with us. However, the elections are right around the corner, so I guess we need to start looking at the political landscape while identifying those who are 100% against us, like Shays.

[TheEngineer]

Here's my second cut. These congressmen actively oppose us. Still write and call them and try to encourage them to flip, of course:

Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO). The Christian Coalition has ranked Musgrave's voting record at '100%' in support of the pro-Christian Coalition legislation listed on their scorecard (which includes Internet gaming).

Ric Keller (R-FL). Consistently against us. Appears he'll have strong challengers in 2008.

Mark Souder (R-IN). Brags about cosponsoring HR 4777 on his website. "U.S. Rep. Mark Souder joined a number of his House colleagues yesterday in cosponsoring H.R. 4777, the Internet Gambling Prohibition Act, legislation designed to crack down on the growing problem of illegal, offshore gambling, as well as illegal gambling that crosses state lines via phone lines and the Internet. The bipartisan bill was introduced in the House of Representatives on Thursday.... "

Joe Knollenberg (R-MI). You all read his letter to us. Plus, as a New England Republican, he'll have a tough challenger in '08.

Chris Shays (R-CT). Good target here, especially as he's so vehemently against us.

Geoff Davis (R-KY). Another good target, especially if former Rep. Ken Lucas runs against him again. Also, supports the horse carve-out for UIGEA. Would be good to get him off the House Financial Services Committee.

Steve Chabot (R-OH). Ohio is a good state for us, I think. It's becoming more progressive and libertarian, especially with regards to social conservatism. Chabot is a foe of ours.

Jean Schmidt (R-OH). Memorably called 38-year Marine Corps veteran Rep. John Murtha a coward for advocating leaving Iraq. Definitely an opponent of ours.

Deborah Pryce (R-OH). OSU, plus regular Ohio voters, make her seat vulnerable.

Heather Wilson (R-NM). Currently, she is under a preliminary investigation by the House Ethics Committee over whether she made inappropriate contact with the United States Attorney for the District of New Mexico by inquiring, shortly before an election in which she faced a stiff challenge, on the status of a corruption investigation involving a Democratic politician.

[Uglyowl]

Nice work on the list... One correction

[ QUOTE ]
Joe Knollenberg (R-MI). You all read his letter to us. Plus, as a New England Republican, he'll have a tough challenger in '08.

[/ QUOTE ]

MI=Michigan (not in New England)

[TheEngineer]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice work on the list... One correction

[ QUOTE ]
Joe Knollenberg (R-MI). You all read his letter to us. Plus, as a New England Republican, he'll have a tough challenger in '08.

[/ QUOTE ]

MI=Michigan (not in New England)

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] I looked at the "R-MI" too quickly and thought he was from Rhode Island for that split second. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Pretty bad, considering I had just read an article on him.

Actually, Michigan is as good for us as New England. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]