50nl River decision?

[0524432]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $87.05
Hero (BB): $57.10
UTG: $62.65
MP: $45.00
CO: $46.75
BTN: $36.75

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 15/5/1 over 183 (all stats from data mining)

First session with this player, seems tight and passive.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, MP calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($7.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.20</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $5.20, CO folds

Turn: ($17.65) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $14.00</font>, MP calls $14.00

River: ($45.65) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)


What's your play? Villain has approx $24 behind after river

[sightless]

shove
if he has you beat he is going to shove himself

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
shove
if he has you beat he is going to shove himself

[/ QUOTE ]

can you explain?

[catoandtonic]

Shove. We aren't folding. He checks with hands you beat and bets with hands that beat you.

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
Shove. We aren't folding. He checks with hands you beat and bets with hands that beat you.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does this even mean?

[0524432]

BUMP FOR THOUGHTFUL REPLIES

[catoandtonic]

What it means is this. Our money is going in regardless. Our hand is too strong and pot is too large to make folding an option. The situation is one where villain will ONLY bet if he has us beat and will check behind with marginal hands. But, he will call with many of those marginal hands. So, we shove because now we get his money in the pot when we are beat AND many times when we are ahead. I hope that clears it up.

[Axehero]

I wouldnt put him on a FH, i think he would raise the flop or the turn if he had a set. He doesn want 2 see a fourth spade.

In my opinion he has the A of spades, and he just couldnt lay down a str8 flush draw.

So i would shove, because its very likely that he pushes himself, even if he just wants to bet a busted draw.

[0524432]

First of all, thank you for a thought-out response.

So you're saying, he makes the call for his stack with enough hands that we have beat to make shoving +eV?

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldnt put him on a FH, i think he would raise the flop or the turn if he had a set. He doesn want 2 see a fourth spade.

In my opinion he has the A of spades, and he just couldnt lay down a str8 flush draw.

So i would shove, because its very likely that he pushes himself, even if he just wants to bet a busted draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will be posting the results after a number of additional responses. I think this is a very important situation in NLHE to be making the correct decision. EV is the equation here. Thank you for your response, keep them coming. I've already got an opinion of my own as to what the most + Expectation play on the river is. I'll be posting the results and my thoughts sometime later today.