2/4 nl weird spot with Q9s

[40oz]

villain is 20/9/1.2. What is my plan for this hand?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $231.75
BB: $400.00
UTG: $387.00
UTG+1: $924.50
MP1: $503.80
MP2: $837.30
Hero (CO): $426.30
BTN: $423.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 Players)
UTG calls $4.00, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $4.00, MP2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $24.00</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $20.00, MP1 folds

Flop: ($58) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $42.00</font>

Pot Size: $100.00

[too eazy]

? get all in ASAP plz

[Kos13]

Raisy daisy LDO.

[CalledDownLight]

I like flatting b/c I don't think we can call a shove here.

[Kos13]

[ QUOTE ]
I like flatting b/c I don't think we can call a shove here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Does a 1.2 AF ever donk into the PFR with a set or JT here? If he is capable of that, then calling is okay, but I think you see a lot of dumb [censored] like AQ or KK more often than a hand that has you beat if he's your normal semi-loose/passive donk.

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like flatting b/c I don't think we can call a shove here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Does a 1.2 AF ever donk into the PFR with a set or JT here? If he is capable of that, then calling is okay, but I think you see a lot of dumb [censored] like AQ or KK more often than a hand that has you beat if he's your normal semi-loose/passive donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

meh, I think he has J10 most of the times that he has any real hand. Sometimes he'll have KQ or AQ, but I really don't think you'll be able to get AI vs. those hands anyways as he'll fold them somewhere. Raising is obviosly not bad, but I really can't see anything other than 89 that you beat if you get it in on the flop and folding to a 3bet wouldn't be very good imo.

[maltaille]

You're either way ahead, or way behind. His stats aren't that aggressive, but you're stronger than he has a right to expect. He's probably got as many stats on you. Is this a normal play for you? If so, it might weight his hands towards the edges - either really strong (he's hoping for a raise so you can go to war), or weak (he's hoping you missed, like a LAG will on most of their raises, and he can take the pot down quickly without actually having much at all). On the other hand, if you have been lagging it up and there's lots of history, and he's got the guts, he may be willing to go to war light, thinking there's a good chance you're just trying to take the pot away from him even if you raise.

The last option aside (because it depends almost entirely on your read at the time, so it's hard for us to determine the likelihood of it from here), raising will fold out most hands you beat (89 is probably the only one that calls, and it might actually reraise). You can't fold, you have a very unlikely two pair. So, like most WA/WB situations, without a specific read, calling is the best option.

Of course, you then have to call any heart or blank turn (probably including a T or J, though QJ and QT are part of his range). He's probably going to either check, or bet $100-$120 or so into the $142 pot. If he checks, I think practicing some pot control is good even if you get a heart, because you can't handle him pushing over the top, and the possibility of him catching a set for his small pair (the most likely hand he's floating you with) is small.

I'd probably call a Q on the turn too, given you have position, then raise or bet the river strong. A 9 I'd probably raise, hoping he has 89/88/TJ, and not worrying about the weak hands you're folding out (because calling means you're only going to get more from them if he fires again on the river, and that's not very likely after two flat calls).

That will leave you with ~$250 effective stacks and a ~$350 pot on the river (is he good enough to have planned that from the start? If so, it makes it more likely he's very strong). Willing to go all the way on another blank, or even a board that contains a T or J as well? I don't think three streets of OOP aggression changes his hand strength so much (though it does increasingly, weight it towards the strong side) that you can call a blank turn and fold a blank river, so you have to call here as well. Be sure to make some notes on him when you see what he's got.

[justscott]

[ QUOTE ]
You're either way ahead, or way behind. His stats aren't that aggressive, but you're stronger than he has a right to expect. He's probably got as many stats on you. Is this a normal play for you? If so, it might weight his hands towards the edges - either really strong (he's hoping for a raise so you can go to war), or weak (he's hoping you missed, like a LAG will on most of their raises, and he can take the pot down quickly without actually having much at all). On the other hand, if you have been lagging it up and there's lots of history, and he's got the guts, he may be willing to go to war light, thinking there's a good chance you're just trying to take the pot away from him even if you raise.

The last option aside (because it depends almost entirely on your read at the time, so it's hard for us to determine the likelihood of it from here), raising will fold out most hands you beat (89 is probably the only one that calls, and it might actually reraise). You can't fold, you have a very unlikely two pair. So, like most WA/WB situations, without a specific read, calling is the best option.

Of course, you then have to call any heart or blank turn (probably including a T or J, though QJ and QT are part of his range). He's probably going to either check, or bet $100-$120 or so into the $142 pot. If he checks, I think practicing some pot control is good even if you get a heart, because you can't handle him pushing over the top, and the possibility of him catching a set for his small pair (the most likely hand he's floating you with) is small.

I'd probably call a Q on the turn too, given you have position, then raise or bet the river strong. A 9 I'd probably raise, hoping he has 89/88/TJ, and not worrying about the weak hands you're folding out (because calling means you're only going to get more from them if he fires again on the river, and that's not very likely after two flat calls).

That will leave you with ~$250 effective stacks and a ~$350 pot on the river (is he good enough to have planned that from the start? If so, it makes it more likely he's very strong). Willing to go all the way on another blank, or even a board that contains a T or J as well? I don't think three streets of OOP aggression changes his hand strength so much (though it does increasingly, weight it towards the strong side) that you can call a blank turn and fold a blank river, so you have to call here as well. Be sure to make some notes on him when you see what he's got.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cliff notes pleas.

[maltaille]

[ QUOTE ]
Cliff notes pleas.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, sorry. The thing that annoys me most about 2+2 are the short posts that suggest what to do without saying why. If you don't care about the why, don't bother reading.

[justscott]

ok i won't