Razz: I think I suck out on the river in a big pot, check-raise river?

[Jigsaws]

Seat 8 is unknown to me.

I consider Seat 2 very very solid. One of the best regulars I play with on Stars. moobaC, for those who play there too. We haven't played much together, but if he pays attention he probably has notes that I'm solid w/ occasional mad tilting streaks.

I don't like 3rd street action too much, but once I call the reraise I obviously have to call the cap.

On 5th I think I would fold if this pot was of a normal size (he has a 4 card 6 here always). But getting infinity:1 I can't fold, obviously.

The real question is about the river. I'm dead certain he'll make a bet with a 96 here if I check to him (even though I do fold a 97 here), so I wonder if I can check-raise for value. I can safely fold to a 3bet, and I'm not sure he can fold a 96 in this huge pot.

Razz ($5/$10), Ante $0.50

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 7: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___raises___calls

4th Street - (13.10 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (8.05 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (11.05 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Seat 8: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___folds

River - (13.05 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___

[Bartholow]

The problem here is that he knows he's good if he has improved to a 6-low. So any bet or raise you make he can easily decide to call (or even fold) or reraise depending on what he has. As such I don't think you want a lot of bets going in, unless you would feel comfortable checkraising and folding to a 3-bet (which would actually almost certainly be fine even in this huge pot, there's just no way he's going to 3-bet a 96 here IMHO).

So I either bet out or check-call.

[LandonM]

Your post is better than 99% of posts like this.
It provides textural analysis of the opponent, your own image, his likely perception of your image and a general history of his 7th street play- as opposed to every single other post like this that provides nothing more than a hand history, so the mathies can stupidly quarrel over probability and likelihood without any regard to the most important factors that ultimately drag the pot.

Seat 2 is solid, so you know he is 3 to the bottom on 3rd with his RR and RRR. Probably a very good 3 to the bottom.
Of course, you were fine to stay in here with your 3/4/5.

4th, bet was good.

5th is very interesting. Seat 8 is completely retarded to be tagging along in this hand holding an open pair and a J against two players who are clearly so much better off.
Your read on S2 is that he's solid, so we can pretty much discount he's betting a paired ace in hopes of scaring off two players who bricked?
What range can we put him on here? We know he's at least four to a 6, made to a 9 with two streets to go, against the retard in S8 and you with one brick (J). He's in pretty good shape, but I wouldn't fold your hand either, since you're getting the right odds to draw, knowing that even if S8 catches gold on 6th, he's still only good to four cards so he won't be betting out with it and you won't get stuck between him and S2 raising each other.

6th, in my opinion, S2's bet with a K was stupid, particularly if he is a solid player. He obviously is trying to shed the retard in S8 and get it heads up between you since he is board-locked for a better hand. But it does tell us a little something. He's very committed to this hand and will show it down. A consideration for 7th.

7th- You know from gameplay history he will lead with a 9/6 no matter what, plus he has all the tempo going into the pot so we know a bet is coming- and it does.
In my opinion, this is a call with your 8, after checking. I don't think you are strong enough to reraise. Check-raise is outright gambling since you don't know if he improved.

Bet is the worst play on 7th because you (holding only an 8) face the possibility of being raised by a player who is extremely committed to a hand, may have caught good on 7th and has all the tempo coming into the showdown.
Check/Call allows you to show down your mediocre hand that *might* be good, without involving too many bets in such a marginal situation, or being denied a showdown if he raises back.

[Eulysses]

I checkcall here. If he's made a 6 on the river he will three bet and I think a good opponent may fold a check raised 96 on 7th vs. you and your perceived image, so C/Ring may be a lose-lose proposition. Although he may call with his 96 here some % of the time raising here is very marginal. Calling still wins you his river bet if your 87 is good and loses the least when you are wrong.

Edit: Also meant to include that I thought every other street was standard.

[Andy B]

Everything to this point looks pretty standard. I think you can only chicken-call on the river.

[big e]

I would agree calling is the best option.

Why raise esp if you have decided you will fold to a 3 bet.
Op is very unlikely to fold for one more bet.

[HOWMANY]

I don't think that c/r this river is a bad play as long as you're folding to a 3bet, but I would have just bet out here. I really doubt anyone at 5/10 is capable of bet/folding the river unless they were bluffing, so as long as they've got a 9 then you're sure to collect two bets, and he won't ever 3bet a worse hand.

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
The real question is about the river. I'm dead certain he'll make a bet with a 96 here if I check to him (even though I do fold a 97 here), so I wonder if I can check-raise for value. I can safely fold to a 3bet, and I'm not sure he can fold a 96 in this huge pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'll stick to comments on the river since that was really your question. The answer comes down to whether you think he will bet a 96 if you check. You can be almost SURE he has at least that, and he knows this since s8 caught two of the other Aces on board. Even so, very few players will have the discipline NOT to bet their 96 into your likely 97 for value. If it's likely he'll bet, then this is one of the few situations where a C/R is best in Razz. With your board, what will he put you on? Very likely a smooth 7, which he can only beat if he makes his 6. At most he has 7 outs to make that hand, and then he 3 bets (which you can certainly fold to if he is a solid player). Even if he's a maniac and you have to pay him off, he's more than a 4:1 dog to hit his 6. He has 6 more outs to actually beat you, but will only smooth call. So since you're a 2:1 fave to win when he calls, you'd much rather get in 2 bets instead of one when there's no way he's laying it down.

If he's smart enough to check it back to you, then you might as well just lead out and take your one extra bet (folding to a raise from a solid player).