Taj USPC $2K - Baby Flush in Level One

[UMTerp]

We're maybe 15 minutes into the tournament, and I don't think I've played a hand yet. I still have mt starting stack of 8000 intact, and blinds are at 25/50 for 40 more minutes. My table has seen a fair number of multiway pots so far, but no big hands have went down.

Reads:

No strong reads on UTG. He had told me about a $200 tournament he'd won the night before, but from chatting with him for a few minutes, he doesn't strike me as the strongest player in the world. Big muscular guy in his late 30's.

MP seems donkish from my first impression. Already has played a handful of pots, usually calling a few times, then folding at some point in the hand.

LP is an older guy who seems to know everyone in the room. He's been active early, raising and taking down a number of pots. His bet sizing seems good. He's very chatty, and he's wearing a WSOP bracelet. When I got home, I figured out this was Mike Sica, but I didn't know that at the time (and it wouldn't have meant anything to me anyway.)

I shouldn't have left much of an impression on anyone so far. Quiet, and haven't played a pot yet.

The hand:

UTG opens for 250, which is the largest open from anyone at the table so far. His only other open was for 150. MP calls as usual, and Mike calls from two off the button. I close the action by tossing in 200 more chips from the big blind with 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. 825 in the pot.

The flop comes Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Not perfect, but certainly not bad. I check to see what develops, and UTG fires out 500. Call, call, and I close the action again by calling. This is already the biggest pot we've had at the table with the 2825 in there.

Turn brings the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Nice. I check again, because the flop action frightened me a bit. Granted it's a drawy board, but someone could easily have me beat. I do have those two straight flush outs in my back pocket though. UTG leads again for 500 (lol), MP calls, and Mike raises to 1600.

So there's 5425 in the pot, four players still in the hand, and I'm facing a bet of 1600. I have ~7250 in my stack. Action's on me. So now what?

[Todd Terry]

Bet the turn, otherwise you end up in a f***ed spot like this. Mike's a rock, but you have no reason to know that at this point. I've never folded a flush using 2 cards on an unpaired board in my life, but I think you're probably beat here. I'd call, and c/f the river unless the pot odds are great to call (or unless you hit the nuts, obv).

[0evg0]

lead flop because utg will check KK/AA without a club

and you want to force 2 pair hands to raise not just bet

if you lead here tho, you need to go broke

[thebmorekid]

I'm with Todd Terry here...a bet on the turn was a must. But, looking at the situation, I guess I would have to ask, "Were you checking with the intention of folding if there was a lot of action?"

If you checked due to the fear of previous action, and you've now seen more action to fear, I guess you let it go...

However, I re-raise all in, and:
1. Take a nice pot down on the turn; or
2. Take a very nice pot down on the river; or
3. Go busto and head for the cash games

And if he flips over the nuts, I tell the people at the cash game that some donkey sucked out on the river in the tourney to a, let's say, three outer... much more dramatic than the truth...

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[dooom]

I think this is pretty read dependent. Original raiser could easily have an overpair (esp factoring the large raise from UTG), caller could have Qx (esp. if he's a donkish passive player, or a flush - is he calling a raise with a random 2 suited cards?) and Mike could probably have anything from AQ / nut flush / set. The real question is if he has a set / TPTK, does he raise it on the flop with a bet / call and one left to act behind, esp with the flush draw on board. I would. I'm a donkey though and could be wrong. I probably wouldn't be able to find the fold button, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him show up with teh nutz - or AQ with the nut flush redraw. At least you have 2 outs.

/[censored] noob analysis

[thebmorekid]

I don't think he is raising with nuts there. Flush is obvious possibility at this point, but I think he smooth calls with nuts. That's why I suggest shoving it in because there is a chance you can get him to fold K high flushes and lower. If he has nuts, you go broke on this hand. And you go broke because of the way you played it. And again, we've got two outs to the suuuuuuuuuuuuckout!

Look: If we are going to play 4c5c to the turn this way, we shove it in and go broke if we are beat. This is the last chance that we have any fold equity to flushes in between ours and the nuts. We need to use that equity to try to take the pot down right there. If we walked into the nuts, so be it.

And off to the cash games we go!! Lock it up!

[MaverickUSC]

I think we're missing an important point here. The turn pot size. There's 2825 in the pot, two 500 chips, and Mike makes it 1650? So he's offering a pretty sick price for whatever to call for 1150 for 5475, just under 5-1.

If this guy is a rock and good, I would imagine him to be raising more on the turn. I think regardless of his holding he would be wanting opponents to pay more, but if he was fixing to play a big pot, I would think he would want to massage it a bit more here to get the 6kish he would have behind in on the river.

I think T8 is in his range a lot here as well as all 2 pair hands and a few top pair type hands. Also in his range is the nuts. With any other flush I think he would put in a significantly larger raise on the river to prevent higher clubs from getting the right price.

Therefore, I'm sticking it in, watching him squirm, and doubling up when he finally makes a hero call w/T8.

Or hit a two outer.

Edit: Oh yeah, it's live. I forgot about the looking into his soul part.

Devo