10NL: trips, turn a scarecard with overbet

[Micro Donk]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $18.20
BB: $6.00
UTG: $10.25
Hero (MP): $10.00
CO: $19.90
BTN: $17.30

Reads: <font color="blue">villain is 71/0/2.5 over small sample (20 hands)...his bets were insta postflop</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.30</font>, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

Flop: ($0.70) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, SB calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.70) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $5.00</font>

i figure even if he does have a flush i still have quite a few outs...T, A, 5, maybe K...

[Ramana]

raise to .4 pf

Flop line looks like a FD, but could also be a K or a dominated T. His turn psb makes it a little less likely for him to have a flush, in some cases it actually indicates weakness. I like a shove here.

[Micro Donk]

[ QUOTE ]
raise to .4 pf

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont like raising to 4x. makes c-bets more expensive, even if it does put in only a slighter amount of value from weaker hands

[THoM.]

I would probably shove here as well, difficult decision. If you had the Ad it would be a lot easier. But as ramana's saying, imo his turnbet does indicate weakness.

[Micro Donk]

people saying that always being worried of the scarecard sucks, but they seem to have it somewhat often, so its hard not to

[Ramana]

Your cbets have little to do with your PFR. If you're losing money with cbetting, then maybe you should be more selective about the kind of villain/flop you're cbetting into. Cbetting is an art and it takes time to master it. Also nobody forces you to alway cbet 3/4 pot, sometimes I only cbet 1/2. Nobody is paying atention to your betting patterns at NL10.

Also if you raise less than 4BB pf, it makes it for villains much easier to draw out on you. I'm gonna call you with 87s in BB all day for 2BB more. A bigger PFR will make the pot bigger, and fish stack off more quickly in raised pots, they make more mistakes in raised pots. If you have the right kind of guy, it's even right to raise to 6BB or even 7BB pf, because it will be much easier to take his money, his mistakes will be much more expensive.

The more people value their blinds, the less you can raise pf, as is the case in higher stakes. But the fish don't care and know nothing about their blind's worth. This you must exploit!

[CaptainSubtext]

I think at 10NL people hardly make moves and they potbet/overbet their monsters regardless of what they did beforehand, so that he overbets the turn is more of an indication that he has indeed made his flush.

Even though it's hard you have to laydown trips. You're about a 3-1 dog and the pot odds are not justifying you to call. And you only invested $2.30 into this pot and still have $7.70 left.

I agree with Ramana that raising a bit more than 3xBB is better, because on average people in the BB will quickly call 2BB more .

[Micro Donk]

[ QUOTE ]
Your cbets have little to do with your PFR. If you're losing money with cbetting, then maybe you should be more selective about the kind of villain/flop you're cbetting into. Cbetting is an art and it takes time to master it. Also nobody forces you to alway cbet 3/4 pot, sometimes I only cbet 1/2. Nobody is paying atention to your betting patterns at NL10.

Also if you raise less than 4BB pf, it makes it for villains much easier to draw out on you. I'm gonna call you with 87s in BB all day for 2BB more. A bigger PFR will make the pot bigger, and fish stack off more quickly in raised pots, they make more mistakes in raised pots. If you have the right kind of guy, it's even right to raise to 6BB or even 7BB pf, because it will be much easier to take his money, his mistakes will be much more expensive.

The more people value their blinds, the less you can raise pf, as is the case in higher stakes. But the fish don't care and know nothing about their blind's worth. This you must exploit!

[/ QUOTE ]

i keep trying to read your post but then i look at your avatar and start laughing

but with the smaller c-bet, like you said, fish are just as likely to stack off, and more are in the pot, so the c-bets would weigh about the same anyway. and i dont want the fish to want to stack off more often if im going to be whiffing the flop so much...seems like anyone that would call 3x will call 4x as well down here, and keeps the pot more in my control