MONSTER 2/4: AQo in the sb, huge pot w/ TP

XmasXmas · #1 09-23-2006, 05:22 AM

opponents were a mixed bag of typical to loose passive.

flop raiser is taggy, but limited numbers 19.63/8.41/1.28

i need a plan for the rest of the hand from the point where i cut off the hand. after some input, i will post what i did and what happened on the turn. thanks, all, in advance.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (11 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls.

James. · #2 09-23-2006, 08:36 AM

i would say bet the turn in hopes he raises again. if a queen comes off or your aces are good, you want to maximize the chance it holds up. that's a very draw heavy board so it gives lots of hands reasons to call two small bets. now lets try to face them with two big bets.

XmasXmas · #3 09-23-2006, 09:20 AM

if i'm understanding you correctly, you're also implying that i should call the flop raise instead of 3-betting, correct?

XmasXmas · #4 09-23-2006, 09:26 AM

i see that my OP was somewhat unclear. i'm in the sb, so after the button called, i have a decision to make as to whether to call or 3-bet. i should have put in a "hero ???" but it is too late now :\ sorry for the lack of clarity.

James. · #5 09-23-2006, 09:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
if i'm understanding you correctly, you're also implying that i should call the flop raise instead of 3-betting, correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

yep.

Bill C · #6 09-23-2006, 10:08 AM

What kind of hand can we put Villain on at this point? If he truly is taggish, he probably would have PF raised big pairs and big suiteds, so unless he holds something like T9 or maybe ATo, we have to think he's holding something like KXs, or maybe big unsuiteds, and is drawing, which would perhaps make his flop raise an attempt to thin the field or to get a free card. The board is very drawy, and all three remaining players are willing to call 2 bets cold (!!). A lot depends on what falls on the turn, and how all of the others bet. I like James's idea of calling on the flop and then betting the turn, especially if a blank comes, but pretty much whatever else comes, too.

With this board, it's pretty tricky deciding what to do on later streets because a lot will depend on how the others in the hand bet. It could turn out to be a hand you'd just want to call down after betting once on the turn, or even a hand you might end up folding, since at this point the holdings of the three cold callers remain opaque to our view.

Hero has a vulnerable made hand, but also a BDF draw to the second nut flush. Everyone has plenty of odds to draw to even pretty marginal hands. A lot may happen between where we are now, and the showdown! Stay tuned....! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

bill c

XmasXmas · #7 09-23-2006, 10:18 AM

apparently i love replying to my own threads as i am here once more.

james.,

how large do you think this intersection is? the number of times i donk a turn that doesn't give me more outs (say a deuce), get raised, and at that moment, my hand is good or that i have enough outs such that paying 2 bets is not a mistake?

i'm all about maximizing my chances of winning a large pot, but my biggest problem with the line you proposed is that it may be a self-defeating line. we're talking a 1.28 AF guy here. if i get popped on the turn and am looking at AT or, worse yet, a set, i'm making pretty big mistakes by putting in these two bets.

put another way, how often is this 1.28 AF guy going to raise me again on the turn w/ an inferior hand? if i call the flop raise, donk the turn, and don't get raised, i have achieved nothing except lose value raises earlier on.

on the other hand, since no one w/ a good draw is going anywhere anyway, what is so bad about raising the flop for value? or, if we want to border on overplaying our hand, how about a turn c/r?

James. · #8 09-23-2006, 10:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
put another way, how often is this 1.28 AF guy going to raise me again on the turn w/ an inferior hand? if i call the flop raise, donk the turn, and don't get raised, i have achieved nothing except lose value raises earlier on.

[/ QUOTE ]

not true. by not reraising the flop you are controlling the pot. you have a vulnerable hand OOP in a big pot and i am trying to give a line to maximize the times you rake that big pot. you want hands drawing to trips/twopair or gutters to fold. if you bet and he raises again, you may be in bad shape but you certainly fare better against him HU than multiway. if you 3bet the flop, it is true you are extracting more value when ahead. but you are also making it theoretically correct for a ton of hands to see the river. this has the effect of creating more ways to lose as opposed to win, but with the upside being when you do win you win a bigger pot. my thing is, when i am OOP in big pots like this i want to protect my hand on such a drawy board. on the flop you have lost that ability and could go ahead and 3bet for value, but that will eliminate any chance you have of protecting your hand when the bet size doubles on the turn. it is a tradeoff. i would rather win a bit smaller pot more often, than a bigger pot way less often.

[ QUOTE ]
on the other hand, since no one w/ a good draw is going anywhere anyway, what is so bad about raising the flop for value? or, if we want to border on overplaying our hand, how about a turn c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

your hand is very susceptible. i don't like to c/r in this spot b/c a free card happens too damn often(even if it's not that often, it's too often). also, it is true a hand like an OESD or flush draw is going nowhere, but you have reasonable out blocks for both of those hands as well as a redraw. but your equity on the turn goes up dramatically if you do have the best hand and i think you can induce your opponents to at least make more mistakes later on by not reraising the flop. i don't know if i've explained myself very well, but basically i'm wanting to control the pot size to maximize our chances.

James. · #9 09-23-2006, 10:45 AM

oh, and given the limited sample i don't put ALOT of stock in your stats. 1.28AF isn't super passive, and he could be raising AJ or something. A9 you have outs. 9T you have outs. see what getting HU with all of that money does? when behind you stand to be able to outdraw him, while not having to worry about both of you being outdrawn.

Mr. Orange · #10 09-23-2006, 02:06 PM

Just curious as to why no one thinks the villian could have 99 here. I've often seen players in this stat range (19/8/1) limp in early position with mid pairs. On the flop with 3 players to act behind him why would he raise on a draw? If there were low cards on the flop (no ace) then I could see him raising with a draw and an Ace to buy outs but it seems more like he's scared of someone else chasing a draw here. I'm thinking that the most likely hands for the villian are ATs,99 or possibly A9s.