100/200 Hand...Hypothetical River Situation

[whitelime]

FullTiltPoker Game #2070321829: Table Canosa (6 max) - $100/$200 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:54:41 ET - 2007/03/25
Seat 1: whitelime ($28,640)
Seat 2: David Benyamine ($128,192)
Seat 3: Boosted J ($20,000)
Seat 4: bb_ShiNing ($24,138.05)
Seat 5: shahmat ($14,890.90)
Seat 6: ididalright ($34,238)
bb_ShiNing posts the small blind of $100
shahmat posts the big blind of $200
5 seconds left to act
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to whitelime [A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
ididalright raises to $700
whitelime calls $700
dkhertz (Observer): have u guys not done ur homework on this rigged site
Boosted J calls $700
bb_ShiNing folds
shahmat calls $500
*** FLOP *** [9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
shahmat checks
ididalright checks
whitelime bets $2,250
Boosted J has 15 seconds left to act
Boosted J calls $2,250
shahmat calls $2,250
ididalright folds
*** TURN *** [9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] [Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
shahmat checks
davepenn (Observer): flush draw and str8 draww shocking
whitelime checks
Boosted J checks
*** RIVER *** [9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] [7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
shahmat CHECKS
whitelime ?

shahmat has abt $12k left, and there is about $10k in the pot.

(In the actual hand, he bet $5k and I folded which I think is pretty standard)

[Apathy]

Im not sure why you would bet

[THE JUICE]

seems like pretty easy check behind here,prob somewhat apt to call a bet from boosted as imo he isnt checking behind on turn with flush

[whitelime]

[ QUOTE ]
Im not sure why you would bet

[/ QUOTE ]

What if either Boosted or Shahmat was a fish? Also, what would you do facing a 5k bet f/ Boosted, 10k bet, allin? (assuming we chk and shahmat folds after boosted bets)

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
Im not sure why you would bet

[/ QUOTE ]


i've heard shahmat is bad, so there's pretty much no way he's even considering c/r'ing the river. so his most likely hand is some sort of weak made hand or missed draw. so that's a start

boosted's flop play looks a lot like a draw to me. 4 ways, whitelime bets after 2 checks, and he calls right after. i'm thinking MAYBE he has AJ and MAYBE he has T9 not wanting to get all-in just yet, but i can't think of too many other made hands he can have. and with Tc9c out there, there are a myriad straight-flush draws that he probably raises with. so, for draws, that leaves Axcc, QJ/J8/87 w/o FD (questionable calls on the flop), a [censored] combo draw like 76cc or 86cc (possibly still raises flop), possibly a terrible naked flush draw like 65cc (questionable call). there are a lot of big hands whitelime can have, including A9s, ATs, T9s, TT, 99, and endless big draws, so i don't see boosted [censored] around too much.

so where does that leave us on the river? on the turn, boosted is pretty much pegged for a draw so it's conceivable for him to check back any flush. nut flush being sneaky, or maaaaybe a baby flush figuring he's not getting paid off on the turn so maybe control the pot and see what happens on the river. but shahmat sucking is a huge reason to bet with these hands, and whitelime usually has 4-10 outs, so i don't think he does it that often. so when he checks the turn, i'd put him on QJ, maybe AJ or T9, or a slowplayed flush.

so overall i think we're always ahead of shamat, and maybe like a 2-1 favorite to be beating boosted. it's thin, but i think it's worth betting

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
seems like pretty easy check behind here,prob somewhat apt to call a bet from boosted as imo he isnt checking behind on turn with flush

[/ QUOTE ]


he's probably not bluffing 3 ways, so if you'd call a bet from boosted, you're better off betting and getting shahmat to pay you. if you check, you should be folding to boosted's bet imo. he's just not bluffing enough and never value betting worse

it's conceivable for him to have a flush since his flop play pretty much has him pegged for a draw, so he could check to screw with their hand reading abilities a bit on the river

[TheStandman]

Ok , i think you have to call the river. He doesn't think you are this strong and could be doing this with a wide range, folding here is probably correct but not in the long run.

He wouldn't check the turn with a flush, so he can only have 77. The question is, what's the probability that he does not have that and you are ahead.... It's weak to fold and it makes you way too bluffable in the long run that's the main reason you have to call this.

Still it's close between calling and folding.

[Hensa]

is it retarded to bet aboout 60% of the pot and folding to a raise ?

[Boosted J]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
seems like pretty easy check behind here,prob somewhat apt to call a bet from boosted as imo he isnt checking behind on turn with flush

[/ QUOTE ]


he's probably not bluffing 3 ways, so if you'd call a bet from boosted, you're better off betting and getting shahmat to pay you. if you check, you should be folding to boosted's bet imo. he's just not bluffing enough and never value betting worse

it's conceivable for him to have a flush since his flop play pretty much has him pegged for a draw, so he could check to screw with their hand reading abilities a bit on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

not sure how you would know my ranges here since I dont believe we do or have ever played....I like whitelimes thought process like 5x more than yours