AA: yummy... now let me puke ($2/$4) - Page 3

TheStandman · #21 03-30-2007, 04:16 PM

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Your flop bet is ridiculous and makes the decision 1000x more difficult. Just bet 100$ at least and fold to a reraise b/c your line is so strong I doubt MP would raise like that with anything other than a set.

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Even though he has a set, reward him to play this awfully bad and pay him. This is a +EV situation anyhow [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] And i wouldn't be extremely surprised if he had an overpair and that he beats your AK (why $60!!) and the top pair of the other player...

So don't fold!

Alexos · #22 03-30-2007, 04:19 PM

Since he bet only 60$, what you described might be a reasonable scenario. Thats why I think he makes his decision a lot harder, b/c I believe most of the time opponent has a set here. As played its close, but if he bets 120, and gets reraised by the tight guy...hmm fold?

TheStandman · #23 03-30-2007, 04:25 PM

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Since he bet only 60$, what you described might be a reasonable scenario. Thats why I think he makes his decision a lot harder, b/c I believe most of the time opponent has a set here. As played its close, but if he bets 120, and gets reraised by the tight guy...hmm fold?

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Folding could be right... but he might miss a side pot of $74 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Hince · #24 03-30-2007, 04:38 PM

I think the flop bet is pretty bad, because I don't think a 63/31 is folding so much as a gutshot in a pot this size.

However, as played, is this guy really going to c/r with an overpair in this spot vs. two players? After he just called twice preflop?

TheStandman · #25 03-30-2007, 04:57 PM

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I think the flop bet is pretty bad, because I don't think a 63/31 is folding so much as a gutshot in a pot this size.

However, as played, is this guy really going to c/r with an overpair in this spot vs. two players? After he just called twice preflop?

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C/r-ing is very likely with this limit. At this limit a lot of players check-call a pair (heads up) instead of betting their set directly. This c/r could very well be a hit set. Let's assume that if he had a set he would raise herem but he could be raising with QQ, KK or maybe JJ.

I don't like calling here and i don't like folding here. Folding is not a very big mistake here, but it isn't fantastic or great also. (Thinking about longer it it might be best to just give up and fold, but with those limits you shouldn't think too much and just push all-in and hope [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

But he could have KK or QQ and make this play because the flop bet of Hero is so weak that he stopped bothering about his holding (AA or KK deduced to AK imo).

I would bet the flop bigger to be sure and make better folds...

jlkrusty · #26 03-30-2007, 05:16 PM

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I would still argue it's very -EV still since you stack off only about half the time (half the time you are shutting down with AK after flop bet)

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I agree with you, smart and very correct. His slightly +EV is completely false.. the assumption AA will never fold is wrong. The flop could also be 7 7 5 or 5 5 7 or 3s 4s 5s making easier for AA to fold.... and if you have AsAd is not even that wrong to call this push even if the opponent hit his set. So he will not always win if he hits, this EV logic is not entirely correct!

This might be a strange conclusion but push the flop. There are other good reasons to push here.... They called so heavy -EV preflop that you shouldn't fold this flop.

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The reg in MP doesn't have to stack off against only me to make it +EV for him to call. He can also try to stack off against loose donk. So, even if don't stack of because I've got AK or something, MP may think the difference will be made up against loose donk. Or, there may be some situations where he can get both of us to build the pot and create a hugely positive EV situation for his preflop call. Whatever his EV, I think we should be able to at least agree that the preflop call is close to overall neutral EV, and that it MP's perception could have easily been that he did have +EV to make the call. MP didn't have the time to run long mathematical proofs about his EV. He may have even known that it was a close decision. As stated in the orginal problem, he thought for a while before making the preflop call.

Anyhow, for sake of argument, let's assume we can somehow prove his preflop call was slightly -EV. I don't like the strategy of just stacking off postflop just because we've arrived at that conclusion. Why not try to maximize our EV by finding some occassional folds even on this ragged board?

Most have said I should have bet around $120 post flop. How do I follow through if I make that bet. Assume one of two things happen from my $120 bet:

1. Loose donk calls and MP check raises the minimum to $240; or
2. Loose donk calls, but MP still check raises me the minimum to $240.

What's my course now? Just get it in under both hypos, or do I somehow find a fold in either case?

HP · #27 03-31-2007, 06:00 AM

I get it in under both hypos

I guess UTG+1 may indeed have made a +EV call, but that doesn't change the fact we are +EV too with our overall plan, it could be that's there's enough EV from the donk to go around. So I guess I change my stance to "not sure if UTG+1 is +EV but we are either way"

In fact even if the donk folded preflop, just because UTG+1's call is +EV it doesn't necessarily make our play -EV, because of pot odds (he's already put $14 of his in)

And yeah maybe we are not maximizing EV. But I just get it in and don't think about it much knowing for sure my overall play is +EV

After opponents have seen me bluff this flop with AK, I seem to always stack JJ type hands with AA/KK, and I guess I'm too lazy to play the adjust and readjust game of paper rock scissors.

wdead · #28 03-31-2007, 06:18 AM

I dont mind the small flop bet at all if you are never folding afterwards. If you are gonna make this tiny bet and then fold to a raise I think thats pretty bad

AcTiOnJaCsOn · #29 03-31-2007, 12:31 PM

i think the donk is this hand kind of keeps the pot protected, i fold, really looks like a set

bagclip2007 · #30 03-31-2007, 02:44 PM

every time i put in a rr with aa and the original raiser calls normal speed and the next guy sits for awhile and finally calls, to me this is always him says "hmm i got a pp and if i hit a set am i going to stack this guy?" obv he thought he would stack if he hits, and most of the time he did, but i do agree with the line a lot of people have posted that he might bully u because of the bad flop bet, it looks uber weak, so maybe its a great flop bet because u got him to raise u with air, but mostly of the time it just puts you in a very hard spot.