AT gutshot + NF draw facing big raise

[Choparno]

No stats, but villain is aggro/bad. When he is bluffing vs a c-bet, he tends to min-raise. If I had any fold equity I think this would be a push, but it really looks like he is committing his stack here. Do we fold and wait for a better spot?

No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $460.00
BB: $432.00
UTG: $253.00
MP: $330.72
CO: $1,435.00
BTN: $400.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14.00</font>, BB calls $10.00

Flop: ($28) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $20.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $156.00</font>, [i]Hero ?

[Yeti]

i love to gamble in spots like this but its stupid, just fold.

[LouisCyphre]

I think I push here, too. Villain has $270 left and that's not committed. Also I don't think this huge overraise is a sign of genuine strength.

[MrHoobris]

Hmm, interesting spot. If you push, I estimate his calling range will be something along the lines of:

Board: Kd Qd 9d

Hand 0: 36.131% { AdTc }
Hand 1: 63.869% { 99, KQs, Q9s, JTs, Jd8d, Td8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 8d4d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, KQo, JTo }

Current Pot Size: 28 + 20 + 156 = 204
Left to Shove: 432 - 14 - 20 = 398
Final Pot Size if called = 432 x 2 = 864
X = P(Fold)

EV(0) = (X)*(204) + (1-X)*(0.36*864 - 398)
X = 30%
So we need villain to fold 30% of the time for the play to breakeven. A read on villain would be great, but I'd guess he probably folds around 20-30% of the time, so it's close to breakeven.

It is a great metagame play though that will help balance your play and gain action when you do push the nuts at very little cost, so I like a shove.

[captainwacky]

god, I love flush draws. Oh and you have a straight draw, too!

[Jamougha]

I found my results improved when I stopped pushing flush draws into monsters.

[jambon]

arrrrrrrrr in

[Choparno]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, interesting spot. If you push, I estimate his calling range will be something along the lines of:

Board: Kd Qd 9d

Hand 0: 36.131% { AdTc }
Hand 1: 63.869% { 99, KQs, Q9s, JTs, Jd8d, Td8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 8d4d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, KQo, JTo }

Current Pot Size: 28 + 20 + 156 = 204
Left to Shove: 432 - 14 - 20 = 398
Final Pot Size if called = 432 x 2 = 864
X = P(Fold)

EV(0) = (X)*(204) + (1-X)*(0.36*864 - 398)
X = 30%
So we need villain to fold 30% of the time for the play to breakeven. A read on villain would be great, but I'd guess he probably folds around 20-30% of the time, so it's close to breakeven.

It is a great metagame play though that will help balance your play and gain action when you do push the nuts at very little cost, so I like a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for running the numbers, that's interesting. I estimated my fold equity to be &lt; 20%, simply because all his bluff raises had been small, and it looked like he wanted to get it in here. It's closer than I thought though.

[Nick Royale]

Pretty easy fold imo.