river checkraise bluff

[danzasmack]

[ QUOTE ]
Or you could, I dunno, just raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if you c/r'd me on this river i would lol and call with A-hi. I don't think he folds anything but like 66/55 that got pwnd

[kbfc]

Some lazy pokerstoving:

Button raises 50% of hands preflop. (Just move the pokerstove preflop slider to 50%).
- If we assume he bets 100% of his hands all the way, on the river ~60% of the time he can beat Q-high.
- If we assume he checks behind on the river with A-high, now only ~40% of the time can he beat Q-high.
- Betting everything, he beats J-high 75% of the time.
- Checking A-high, he beats J-high 64% of the time.

Button raises 40% of his hands preflop.
- Betting everything, he beats Q-high 65% of the time.
- Checking behind A-high, he beats Q-high 45% of the time.
- Betting everything, he beats J-high 82% of the time.
- Checking behind A-high, he beats J-high 71% of the time.


After he bets the river, you're offered 6.5:2 or 3.25:1 (something like 3.1:1 with rake), so he needs to fold just under 25% of the time to show a profit.

Unless he is stealing at a 40% clip, betting every hand on the river, and calling a raise with a bare queen, raising is clearly correct. He's just an aggro donk, not a crazy maniac. I think in actuality, he's checking A-high on the river a large amount of the time, and even when he's not, he's not calling down with a queen that often.

[Keepitsimple]

good post kbfc

[wackjob]

Fold PF versus this guy!

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Or you could, I dunno, just fold preflop .

[/ QUOTE ]

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you joking DD?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Or you could, I dunno, just fold preflop .

[/ QUOTE ]

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you joking DD?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not, and neither am I. I fold preflop quickly.

[veganmav]

I also fold preflop, and I also do so quickly.

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
I also fold preflop, and I also do so quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]