ATo 109r FT dilemma

[WarDekar]

The big thing is with players still to act IMO. As I said if you're SB I'm fine with pushing but with several players left to act that can each put a dent bigger than the original pusher, I think you have to fold this.

Oh and sherman you're picking up closer to 120k, but still...

[betgo]

I can do some math, but when you figure in the times someone else has a hand that dominates you, call/pushing is close to cEV even. As the chip leader at the final table, gambling is $EV-.

[Soulman]

[ QUOTE ]
Call me indifferent (although I am leaning toward a fold) until you do an ICM calculation

[/ QUOTE ]
A proper ICM calc will be pretty nasty here with 3 people left to act, someone please be non-lazy and do it anyway [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call me indifferent (although I am leaning toward a fold) until you do an ICM calculation

[/ QUOTE ]
A proper ICM calc will be pretty nasty here with 3 people left to act, someone please be non-lazy and do it anyway [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Against the short stack, you are 56% against a top 30% hand, so with the dead money, your expected gain by calling is 23K.

If we assume stack the other players push with AQs+, AKo, TT+, they play 12% of the time. When they play, you are 21% to win the main pot, and 26% to win the side pot. Your expected loss on the main pot is about 32K and about 24K on the side pot for a total of 60K.

Your overall expected gain by pushing is about 13K.

After doing the calculations, I agree with others that maybe it is a call, even though gambling is $EV-.

[Eagles]

Betgo,
I think Luckychewy has a big enough stack here that he should call because if he calls and loses it is not catastrophic.

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call me indifferent (although I am leaning toward a fold) until you do an ICM calculation

[/ QUOTE ]
A proper ICM calc will be pretty nasty here with 3 people left to act, someone please be non-lazy and do it anyway [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't simply an ICM problem.

Your stack size affects how your opponents play vs. you, which ICM doesn't account for, which is why some people in this thread have mentioned folding to preserve the chip lead.

[Soulman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call me indifferent (although I am leaning toward a fold) until you do an ICM calculation

[/ QUOTE ]
A proper ICM calc will be pretty nasty here with 3 people left to act, someone please be non-lazy and do it anyway [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't simply an ICM problem.

Your stack size affects how your opponents play vs. you, which ICM doesn't account for, which is why some people in this thread have mentioned folding to preserve the chip lead.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah obviously, but an ICM calc is still useful.

[stealthmunk]

This is an easy shove and not a dilemma.

The fact that the guy showed 22 should have reaffirmed that you made the right play as he's definitely shoving broadway, axs, and if he's got a slight clue some suited connectors.

55ish or KQo/A8oish it might be more of a fold depending on nittyness of player. ATo is way too strong to consider folding in this spot, especially given the dynamic that he is the shortstack, 5handed, utg, and has 8bb. If tables tight in his spot (like if they are considering folding ATo [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]) you can make an argument for shoving any 2 cards in shortstacks spot.

[shaundeeb]

this looks like a fold esp if the table is letting you run over them. I love keeping the other stacks all close together so each one folds waiting for another one to make a move vs CL to go out etc. If you lose this pot you are back with the pack which sucks cuz their resteals get more FE and most 109r players know that. I like having that cushion to be able to raise/call with some middish hand and still have a workable stack. but the diff between that call and this one is there aren't 3 people to act who are calling with more hand then you would think.

[luckychewy]

i'm bumping this because i was thinking about it, and after long deliberation i changed my mind to thinking it's a fold. yes, it may be +cEV, but i think the reasons to fold outweigh the reasons to call. shaundeeb's reason mainly, because i was running the table over and they were giving me little to no resistance. if this were not the case i would think it's a shove. i also think betgo made some good points about me being early and the others behind me, and me having 400k as opposed to 300k may not really be worth all that much to take this gamble. if anyone has anything else to add i'm willing to listen. i've been back and forth on this for a while but i think given the table dynamic it's a fold, though i can probably be convinced otherwise if someone adds something awesome to the discussion.