Analysis of A Seven Card Stud Downswing!

[Al Mirpuri]

I have just lost $273 playing $1/$2 7stud at Full Tilt Poker. There was a little 50c/$1 7stud thrown in.

I have lost $27.25 (correct to 2 decimal places)/ per 100 hands or 13.61bb/per 100 hands. I have been playing since 2pm Eastern Time (whatever it is called - I am British so not all that au fait with it) and have just finished at 11.15pm Eastern Time. It was eight-handed though players came and went and the two tables i played become shorthanded. I would often shift tables if they became three-handed or heads up.

It should be noted that though this is a chunk of my bankroll the loss is no way near to making me busto. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Statistics for 1002 Hands

Street Saw Saw/Total
Fourth 208 21%
Fifth 175 17%
Sixth 147 15%
Seventh 121 12%
Showdown 88 9%

Street Won Won/Saw Won/Total
Third 24 2% 2%
Fourth 7 3% 1%
Fifth 11 6% 1%
Sixth 16 11% 2%
Seventh 10 8% 1%
Showdown 35 40% 3%

Analysis:
Some fish took $100 off me. What can I say? He chased and he hit repeatedly. He took money off others as well. I stayed relaxed and decided to just play my game and not worry. It is important to state that at at no point did i steam or go on tilt. Steaming is for losers. I made no angry raises. The stats show that I did not win my fair share of hands. I am shy 2.5 percentage points in wins which is 20% of what I can legitimately expect at an eight player table (12.5% mathematically expected win rate). I have noticed from prior stat analysis that during winning sessions one simply wins more hands than one is mathematically due. I played tight though unsure whether through being card dead or disciplined. I played big pairs and better. I played the flush draws. If the situation was right I played medium pairs aggressively but as a rule medium pairs and small pairs did not any play from me. Playing tight is generally thought to be a remedy for a downswing but this did not work. My confidence has remained good and I did not try to win 'my' money back from anyone just played the cards. How tight do you think my opening requirements were: I only played 21% of the hands or was that too many.

I won small pots on third and lost big pots on the river. This is a big disaster as we all know. The trick is to win the big pots and lose the small pots. I played well nobody ran me over caught a few bluffers even managed to bluff a few hands because I was perceived as tight.

The opposition was really bad when I lost the biggest chunk of the money but better when I lost the smaller chunk (it broke down to $170 plus then around a $100). I am not Chip Reese nor do I think he was there at the table playing under a pseudonym.

My big pairs did not hold up. My flushes did not fill. At one point I had Aces full and ran into quads, the same happened to Jacks full. I made a lot of second best hands.

Conclusion:
I ran bad, I lost money.

I am now going back to the fray. May play higher at 7stud or may play a little no limit Hold'em. I am in a good frame of mind. These things happen to the best (and I am [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]).

One mistake I would admit to is that I do not practise game selection as well as I should. Though, today, there was little to choose from at Full Tilt at the level I was comfortble at. It is beginning to look as though I need to have bankrolls at various sites and get a bit more serious about my online gaming...


If anyone can see anything worthy of commment in the stats could they please point it out to me. Thank you.