86s OTB on wet board

[You're No Daisy]

Let's work out the numbers. We are 4.5:1 to make our draw right. If he folds 25% of the time we get $16 and calls the other 75%. In 100 identical situations let's say villain folds 25 times to a 3-bet of $25. The other 75 times villain calls our 3-bet we will make our draw 13 times (and lose 62 times. So I believe the math would look like (25 x $16)+(13 x $58)-(62 x $25) = -396. So if my numbers are correct a fold might be in order. However, when do implied odds factor into the situation? If we make our hand, shouldn't we factor in bets we potentially win on the river which make our expectation even greater? Just something to think about. Please correct my math if it is wrong. I don't attempt too many of these calculations, so take it easy if I'm way off.

AC

[Sardine]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's work out the numbers. We are 4.5:1 to make our draw right. If he folds 25% of the time we get $16 and calls the other 75%. In 100 identical situations let's say villain folds 25 times to a 3-bet of $25. The other 75 times villain calls our 3-bet we will make our draw 13 times (and lose 62 times. So I believe the math would look like (25 x $16)+(13 x $58)-(62 x $25) = -396. AC

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the math in the last 2 terms are incorrect. The math should be:
=0.25*16+0.75*0.13*(24+implied bet say 15) + 0.75*0.87*(-8)
=2.58 profit

when you are making decision to call, you loose $8 call, not whole pot, the pot is sunken cost.

similarly the last 2 terms are composed as follows:
Prob [V calls] * Prob [u hit or miss ] * [money won or bet lost]

clearer?

[You're No Daisy]

My post said nothing about calling. The calculation takes into consideration only 3-betting villain on the flop.

AC

[Sardine]

ok, i see.
I could be wrong but second term should be POT ($16) + additional money you win from villain ($25-8=$17) and should not include money you are putting in pot.

Your 1/6 odd of winning implies you only see one more card. Are you raising $25 then folding? I would agree that given your 25%fold/75%call estimate, that this would be bad. This goes to the comments earlier about even a small raise pretty much commiting you to pot.

[You're No Daisy]

Yeah...I think you're right. I'm tired and will recalculate tomorrow. Maybe someone else wants to take a crack at it? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

AC

[You're No Daisy]

I thinks this is the correct math. With 2 cards left to come and 8 outs for Hero in 100 identical situations:

If Hero raises to $25 and villain folds 25 times out of 100, he wins $16 25 times for a positive expectation of $400.
If Hero raises to $25 and villain calls he wins $25 23 times when he hits his draw for a positive expectation of $575.
If Hero raises to $25 and villain calls he loses $25 52 times when he misses his draw for a negative expectation of -$1300.

So Hero's Expectation here is -$325. However, since straight draws are well hidden, can we estimate that if Hero hits those 23 times (31.5% of the time with 2 cards to come) that we can get an extra $30 and possibly more from villain? If we only get an extra $30 out of villain because he check folds the river, we've still added an extra $690 for the times we hit our draw. So now our expectation is $365. So I think raising here is the correct play.

AC

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I thinks this is the correct math. With 2 cards left to come and 8 outs for Hero in 100 identical situations:

If Hero raises to $25 and villain folds 25 times out of 100, he wins $16 25 times for a positive expectation of $400.
If Hero raises to $25 and villain calls he wins $25 23 times when he hits his draw for a positive expectation of $575.
If Hero raises to $25 and villain calls he loses $25 52 times when he misses his draw for a negative expectation of -$1300.

So Hero's Expectation here is -$325. However, since straight draws are well hidden, can we estimate that if Hero hits those 23 times (31.5% of the time with 2 cards to come) that we can get an extra $30 and possibly more from villain? If we only get an extra $30 out of villain because he check folds the river, we've still added an extra $690 for the times we hit our draw. So now our expectation is $365. So I think raising here is the correct play.

AC

[/ QUOTE ]

So I take it we're examining the situation based on the idea that MP folds to the raise 25 percent of the time.

If so, yeah, you're right, we win $16 those 25 out of 100 times that he folds. (We don't win quite that much on the hand itself, but the money we put in preflop isn't really ours anymore.)

Since we're beginning our tally on the flop, though, we actually win more than $25 when Villain calls and we hit. (Probably some amount for potential redraws should be subtracted, though.)

Meanwhile, we probably will lose more than $25 on average when we miss. Basically the only way we'll only lose $25 is if Villain simply calls and then checks the turn and we take the free card and then no money goes in on the river (or Villain bets the river and we fold). But if Villain pushes the flop or donkbets the turn, we have to put more money in.

You are right that we'll probably often win more than $25 when we catch (and like I said, that $25 figure is too small in the first place even with no implied odds), but it is optimistic to think that $25 raise will always give us control of the remaining streets. (I mean, Villain is only going to have about $17 left behind if he decides to play versus our raise to $25.) So it very well may not be the last money we have to put in.

On the bright side, I suspect the 25-percent folding equity estimate is a little small . . .

One other thing: It is possible that, even if raising is a profitable play, that semibluff-calling is even more profitable. (Simple example to illustrate my point: checking behind with AA preflop in the BB after five limpers is almost surely profitable unless the player in the BB completely sucks, but generally it's going to be even more profitable to make a preflop raise with those aces in that situation instead.)