25/50 ugly river decision with Toppair

[cardcore]

Villain is queenkris. I just moved up to 25/50 and I dont have any reads.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $25/$50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $1,010.00
BB: $7,333.03
UTG: $6,703.00
Hero (CO): $7,738.00
BTN: $1,270.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $177.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $600.00</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $423.00

Flop: ($1275) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $900.00</font>, UTG calls $900.00

Turn: ($3075) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($3075) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $2,888.00</font>, Hero ???

Pot Size: $5,963.00


Hero had Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and LOST (-$1,500.00)

[jj12]

based on what i've read about this player I would instacall.

[whorasaurus]

Wow i hate this spot. I don't know villain, but I think I call. I don't give any credit for the J here, and the A on the turn means he's turning TT-KK into a bluff. Call, and bitch about how bad you run when he turns over 99.

[Moonshine]

damn you gotta call that man

[Donkey-Milker]

wtf it has a summary of your p/l at the bottom?

and bet the damn turn!

[VENGEANCE]

snap call

[Tiger_Kid]

With position, bet the turn to avoid difficult decisions like this. He doesn't have KK or he re-raises pf. It's very unlikely he has a J, as what hand can he really call such a large pf reraise with? AJ suited maybe? JJ? maybe, but unlikely, so you just have to lose your money when he does have either.

checking behind on the turn means he gets a chance at any draws for free, and denies yourself any information.


If he simply calls, chances are he has a medium pair. if that 99 gave him 9s full, you'll just have to lose your money this time around. Although, if you bet the turn and then he moves in on the river, you not only have better pot-odds to call, but you have a better idea of where you're at and you can decide if you can call, even with better pot odds.

Your goal in hands like these is to make your decisions as easy as possible. Sometimes that means raising with what might be second-best, sometimes that means value/info betting behind on the turn of a dangerous board (that you're probably winning).


p.s.: the river is giving you 2:1. You only have to be right one in three times to break even, and calling just to see where you are this time around might provide some very, very valuable information about what this player is capable of.

p.s.: that bet looks like a bluff or at least a hand he doesn't want to see to showdown. he bets that much knowing you can't call it without a J, AA, 99, or AK, all hands that probably beat him.

[tomahawk]

[ QUOTE ]
With position, bet the turn to avoid difficult decisions like this. He doesn't have KK or he re-raises pf. It's very unlikely he has a J, as what hand can he really call such a large pf reraise with? AJ suited maybe? JJ? maybe, but unlikely, so you just have to lose your money when he does have either.

checking behind on the turn means he gets a chance at any draws for free, and denies yourself any information.


If he simply calls, chances are he has a medium pair. if that 99 gave him 9s full, you'll just have to lose your money this time around. Although, if you bet the turn and then he moves in on the river, you not only have better pot-odds to call, but you have a better idea of where you're at and you can decide if you can call, even with better pot odds.

Your goal in hands like these is to make your decisions as easy as possible. Sometimes that means raising with what might be second-best, sometimes that means value/info betting behind on the turn of a dangerous board (that you're probably winning).


p.s.: the river is giving you 2:1. You only have to be right one in three times to break even, and calling just to see where you are this time around might provide some very, very valuable information about what this player is capable of.

p.s.: that bet looks like a bluff or at least a hand he doesn't want to see to showdown. he bets that much knowing you can't call it without a J, AA, 99, or AK, all hands that probably beat him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might get trolled/leveled hard here, but wtf are you talking about in this post!?

I disagree with everything except he probably doesn't have KK (because of river not preflop), and I also agree you're getting 2:1 and might get valuable info by calling.

I don't think the riverbet looks like a bluff at all, knowing your hand looks like AK-AQ and he has a hard time representing anything.
Sooo 44, 99, a J or maybe AK looks like the most likely hands because its hard to see what other hands he'd call with on the flop only to kinda turn them into bluffs on the river.

If he's not the kinda player to float you with total air on the flop, or float with a suited small ace that he's valuebetting now i just dont see what you beat.

[Heyway]

I think you should bet/fold turn. As played it's probably a fold, your range contains alot of Ax and he has got to know this. It's not likely that he puts you on the kind of hand you have and decide to bluff you. If you call here you should also call w/KK, QQ, TT because the A-turn probably didn't hit him (unless he floats OOP in rr-pott) and he never bets like that if he has one of thoose hands.