Questions

[Aces McGee]

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If the LAG c/r, which is much more likely than him check folding imo, are we stuck folding the turn unimproved after putting in 2 bets on the flop?


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Well, if we're thinking about calling the turn after we've checked the flop through, then I would say no, we're not resigned to folding the turn after bet/calling the flop.

In the LAP does have air, then we actually want him to checkraise the flop, right?

-McGee

[Rico Suave]

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Well, if we're thinking about calling the turn after we've checked the flop through, then I would say no, we're not resigned to folding the turn after bet/calling the flop.


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But I am thinking of calling the turn b/c of that particular turn card (and the fact that ep folded)...which is quite nice. If ep doesn't fold, and or if I don't get a good card (which I would guess is upward of 25% of the time) I don't think I am calling a turn bet. I see what you are saying though.

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In the LAP does have air, then we actually want him to checkraise the flop, right?


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Yeah, I guess if we are committed to showing down. But if he has a spade, I doubt we have much of an equity advantage vs him on the flop..with him have a 15 outs a large portion of the time. Combined with the fact that I don't see us getting to showdown if a non A or T spade falls--which may be my problem. I am really thinking about this from a perspective that I am going to have to put in way more than 1 bet on average on the flop vs. some hand that may or may not have me beat, in a smallish pot where I won't make it to showdown often.



--Rico

[James.]

is this fullring?

[Rico Suave]

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is this fullring?

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yes

edit to add that villains stats are full ring as well.

(35/25 is the sweet spot for 6-maxers on this forum) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[youlosepork]

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BB is LAG 35/25/2.5 and goes to showdown a lot.



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whats the 35 25 2.5 mean

[James.]

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BB is LAG 35/25/2.5 and goes to showdown a lot.



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whats the 35 25 2.5 mean

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35voluntarily put in pot(vpip)/25preflopraise(pfr)/2.5 postflop aggression factor(AF)

[James.]

if we're bluffing they both need to fold about 17% of the time. if we have the best hand, a worse hand needs to call 55% of the time. both are likely to happen within those %'s so i bet. plus the whole factor of "i bet when i have the nuts so i must bet when i don't have the nuts to get paid off when i do".

thing is, this is a crappy spot. regardless of what we do the outcome is going to be slightly crappy to very, very crappy. when faced with pure crap, we must choose the option of less crappiness. i feel like betting is that option.

[NoSetNoBet]

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when faced with pure crap, we must choose the option of less crappiness.

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This really sums it up for a lot of poker decisions, doesn't it.

[James.]

btw, what exactly is "goes to showdown alot"? 35%? 40%? 45%? 50% like me? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

don't you think BB is 3betting pf with most pairs and highcards? if so, that decreases the likelihood he's going to "keep us honest" calling down with a pair. it also decreases the likelihood he has a big [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to draw at.

the more i think about it, the more i think i hate not betting here. i said "instabet" in my initial response. my reasoning is that when continuation betting after seizing initiave as the preflop raiser, besides paired flops, monotone flops offer excellent fold equity in shorthanded situations. most of the time opponents don't hold a card of that suit to draw to, and if they do they don't hold a very high one. also, you might get a pp or straight draw to incorrectly fold because they fear they are drawing thin/dead. with UI overs this is a coup.

[Rico Suave]

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btw, what exactly is "goes to showdown alot"? 35%? 40%? 45%? 50% like me? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


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I believe it was just shy of 45%.

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don't you think BB is 3betting pf with most pairs and highcards? if so, that decreases the likelihood he's going to "keep us honest" calling down with a pair. it also decreases the likelihood he has a big to draw at.


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Yes, he is 3-beting any better ace and most pocket pairs.

Perhaps I am wrong, but I don't expect him to fold any pair that he may have(9,8,3 55,66, 44, etc) --ok,maybe on a 4 flush board. And he doesn't need a big spade to draw here. 3-way, i don't think he folds any spade.

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my reasoning is that when continuation betting after seizing initiave as the preflop raiser, besides paired flops, monotone flops offer excellent fold equity in shorthanded situations. most of the time opponents don't hold a card of that suit to draw to, and if they do they don't hold a very high one. also, you might get a pp or straight draw to incorrectly fold because they fear they are drawing thin/dead. with UI overs this is a coup.

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James, I agree with everything you said in general. Perhaps I am over worried about the lag, but I don't see him making incorrect folds very often at all. But I do see him doing what lags do best...playing back at me with a draw, a pair, or air on a scary board, and one that is craptastic for my hand. I admit my thinking may be wrong, perhaps I am overstating his potential lagginess in order to justify weak play a scary board. I dunno. I do think you were right in your earlier post about this being a crappy spot, and we must choose the least crappy option.

Anyway, for those interested in results...

I called the turn.

River was a 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] to go with9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Lag bet and I called and he had J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. It was a bit of an odd hand, with some unusual decisions...that is why I posted it.

--Rico