FTP $163: 77, getting short facing PF raise

[bluesbassman]

This is a typical situation that gives me trouble. About 90 remain, 36 paid. No particular reads on the villain other than he hasn't gotten out of line, playing fairly tight. I've also been playing tight because I'm a weak-tight nit and have been card dead, though I did shove my 4K stack about 3 hands ago after 2 weak PF limpers w/ AJ (they folded).

I should have good fold equity here... should I shove this? Or wait for a better spot? I assume stacks are too shallow to just call.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400
(Ante: t50)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t17360
UTG+1: t9950
MP1: t15655
MP2: t24210
MP3: t6545
CO: t6030
Hero: t6535
SB: t6261
BB: t7110

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 raises to t1200</font>, CO folds, Hero ??

[nath]

i just shove

generally speaking, if the best justification you can think of not to make a move is that you're waiting for a better spot, you should make it

[Soulman]

Stacks are too shallow to call, yeah. Meaning this is a pot odds problem. but I can't imagine anything other than push &gt;&gt; fold &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; call is the correct play.

Assigning some rough hands, you get this:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.567% 59.35% 00.22% 670731564 2443866.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 40.433% 40.22% 00.22% 454501344 2443866.00 { 77 }

Of those, he may fold say half the hands if you push, meaning pushing is clearly +EV.

[AragornX151]

Shove.