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#1
11-16-2007, 02:17 AM
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Dr. Bob NCAA
4 Star Selection
****S. FLORIDA (-7.0) 39 Louisville 21 05:00 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07 Louisville is certainly playing better now than they were early in the season, as their defense has gone from atrocious to just worse than average while their offense continues to play well (although the rushing attack has disappeared due to offensive line injuries). But, even if I adjust for the fact that Louisville’s defense is playing better I still can’t justify a line of only 7 points and the situational analysis is strongly in favor of South Florida. Louisville has allowed 6.2 yards per play for the season (against teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense), but those bad numbers are skewed by two unbelievably bad efforts against bad offensive teams Middle Tennessee State (564 yards at 10.2 yppl) and Syracuse (474 yards at 8.2 yppl) early in the season. The new defensive schemes have since been digested by the players and Louisville has been just 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively in 6 games since the Syracuse debacle – allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. South Florida’s offense has been only 0.4 yppl better than average for the season (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl), but they Bulls’ attack has improved as the season has progressed and if I’m going to dismiss Louisville’s bad early defensive numbers then I should also be able to use South Florida’s more recent offensive numbers. Since week 5, which is the week I used as the beginning point for Louisville’s defensive rating, South Florida has been 0.7 yppl better than average offensively, so the Bulls have a 0.9 yppl advantage over Louisville’s defense (would have been 1.2 yppl better using full season stats instead of since week 5 for both teams). On the other side of the ball we have Louisville’s potent offense, which has averaged 6.2 yppl in 9 games against Division 1A competition (teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack), going up against a South Florida defense that is 1.1 yppl better than average in Division 1A games (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average stop unit). So, the Bulls’ defense actually has a slight edge over Louisville’s offense and a pretty significant advantage over Louisville’s defense. My math model favors South Florida by 11 points in this game (it would have been 15 points using stats for the entire season for Louisville’s defense) and the Bulls apply to a very strong 45-8-2 ATS last home game situation while Louisville is in a letdown spot after their heartbreaking loss at West Virginia last week. That loss sets up the Cardinals in a negative 64-146-1 ATS letdown situation. The Bulls are also 12- 3 ATS as a home favorite of less than 14 points under coach Jim Leavitt. I’ll take South Florida in a 4-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less, for 3-Stars from -7 ½ to -10 points and for 2-Stars at -10 ½ or -11 points. 3 Star Selection ***WASHINGTON ST. (-2.5) 28 Oregon St. 18 03:30 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07 Following their 7-53 loss at Oregon Washington State coach Bill Doba used the Cougars’ bye week to install a 3-4 defense (after years of playing the 4-3) to get more of his gifted, young linebackers on the field. In 3 games since the move to the 3-4 the Cougars have allowed just 4.4 yards per play and 14 points per game to UCLA, Cal, and Stanford – who would combine to average 5.4 yppl and 27 points against an average defensive team. Washington State has gone from a worse than average defense (on a national scale) to a good defense and that unit should have little difficulty in defending a one-dimensional Oregon State offense that is 0.2 yards per rushing play better than average but has a pathetic pass attack that has been 1.8 yards per pass play worse than average without All- American WR Sammie Stroughter on the field. Stroughter played just two games at receiver (against Idaho State and Arizona State) and the Beavers had a good and balanced attack in those games while Stroughter racked up 262 receiving yards on 22 balls thrown to him. The Beavers have played 8 games without Stroughter at receiver and they’ve had just one game in which they averaged more than 5.0 yards per pass play and the two OSU quarterbacks have combined to average a pathetic 3.8 yppp without Stroughter to throw to and have been intercepted a combined 19 times in 10 games this season. Starting quarterback Sean Canfield is out for the Beavers, but backup Lyle Moevao hasn’t proven to be any worse on his 79 pass plays this season. Oregon State has had to depend on their very good defense (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team) to keep them competitive, but Washington State rates at 0.7 yppl better than average with Alex Brink behind center and without top back Dwight Tardy. The Cougars won’t be able to run without Tardy in the lineup (my math model projects just 3.1 yprp after adjusting for Tardy’s absence), but Brink (6.8 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB) is better than Oregon State’s pass defense, which rates at 0.6 yppp better than average. I expect Washington to come out throwing in this game with Oregon State down two defensive backs for the first half of this game (both suspended for the first half for a fight in the Washington game last week). Without even factoring that in my math model favors the Cougars by 10 ½ points in this game and gives Washington State a 60.6% chance of covering at the current line of -2 points (based projected differential from the spread and the historical performance of my math model). I’ll take Washington State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -3 points. 2 Star Selection **NEVADA 38 Hawaii (-7.0) 37 08:00 PM Pacific, 16-Nov-07 Nevada has had an extra week to prepare for their biggest home game of the season and experienced coach Chris Ault is 3-0 ATS at home after a bye week. The Wolf Pack also qualify in a very strong 37-4-1 ATS subset of a 95-31-3 ATS home off a bye angle while Hawaii applies to a negative 100-174-11 ATS road favorite situation and struggles to cover as a conference road favorite against decent teams (0-6 ATS as a conference road favorite against teams with a win percentage of .400 or better in 10 seasons under coach June Jones). Hawaii needed overtime periods to win at Louisiana Tech and at San Jose State this season and Reno, Nevada is a place where June Jones has not won or covered the spread despite being favored in 2 of 3 visits. The Warriors have played a very easy schedule so far this season and the only decent team that they faced prior to this game was last week’s narrow 37-30 home win over Fresno State as a 17 point favorite. Hawaii still has yet to face a team that rates as better than average offensively (based on my ratings) and the Warriors’ mediocre defense (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.6 yppl against an average team) will have trouble containing Nevada’s dynamic sophomore quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick came off the bench in game 5 to replace injured starter Nick Graziano and lit up a solid Fresno State defense for 384 passing yards and 60 rushing yards in just 3 quarters of play. Kaepernick followed that performance with 235 aerial yards (on just 29 pass plays) and 185 yards on 11 runs in a 67-69 overtime loss at Boise State as a 26 point dog. Overall, Kaepernick has been 0.9 yards per pass play better than average throwing the football (compensated for opponent’s faced) and has scampered for 519 yards on just 56 rushing plays in about 5 games of work - while throwing just 2 interceptions on 145 pass attempts. Hawaii’s potent attack is going to score points against a sub-par Nevada defense, but the Wolf Pack are certainly capable of keeping within striking range with their offense. My math favors Hawaii by 8 points, so the line is pretty fair, and the situation is strongly in favor of Nevada, so I’ll take Nevada in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 points or more. 2 Star Selection **CLEMSON (-7.5) 35 Boston College 20 04:45 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07 Boston College, formerly a joke of a #2 in the BCS standings, is still an overrated team despite losing 2 straight games. Eagles’ quarterback Matt Ryan got a lot of hype as a Heisman Trophy candidate, which also made no sense to me given that Ryan averaged a sub- par 6.9 yards per pass attempt last season and has averaged only 7.0 ypa this year (which is the national average). Ryan doesn’t get sacked much so his yards per pass play numbers are pretty good (6.6 yppp against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) and the Eagles’ offense rates at 0.5 yards per play better than average (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl). That unit is at a disadvantage against a very good Clemson defense that is 1.2 yppp better than average (4.6 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppp against an average defense) and 0.8 yppl better than average (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl). The only quarterback to average more than 5.8 yppp against the Tigers was Maryland’s red-hot Chris Turner, who managed a modest 6.1 yppp against Clemson (Turner would average 7.5 yppp against an average team). My math model projects 5.5 yppp for Ryan in this game and the Eagles don’t have a running game to lean on when Ryan is not effective. The best thing about Boston College is their outstanding run defense, which has allowed just 2.9 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average defense), but most teams are smart enough to simply throw the ball against an Eagles’ secondary that has allowed 6.1 yppp to teams that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average defense. The Eagles faced only sub-par pass attacks until a couple of weeks ago, but they allowed 369 aerial yards at 7.9 yppp to a mediocre Florida State pass attack and then were lit up for 317 yards at 10.6 yppp by Chris Turner of Maryland last week. Clemson’s Cullen Harper is an above average passer (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp) and he doesn’t make many mistakes (just 4 interceptions all season). Clemson’s strong rushing attack will struggle against BC’s stout defensive front, but my math model projects 312 yards at 7.6 yppp for Harper. Overall, Clemson’s offense rates at 0.4 yppl better than average while BC’s defense is only 0.1 yppl better than average. The Tigers also have a 0.3 yppl advantage when Boston College has the ball and Clemson also has superior special teams and an advantage in projected turnovers. My math model favors Clemson by 12 points and Boston College applies to a negative 25-68-2 ATS situation. Teams like Boston College that start the season on a win streak can fall apart quickly after their first loss and are often overrated because of all the attention that the early season streak garnered. In fact, teams that start the season with 5 or more consecutive wins and then lose consecutive games are just 9-25-1 ATS in their next game if facing a conference opponent with a .500 or better record – including 0-9 ATS if the teams started the season 7-0 or better before their 2 losses (as BC did). I’ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ points or less and for 3-Stars at -7 or less. Strong Opinion CENTRAL MICH (-13.0) 41 Eastern Mich 23 04:00 PM Pacific, 16-Nov-07 Central Michigan is unbeaten in MAC play this year and the Chippewas are 8-0 ATS at home the last 2 seasons (although they did lose a non-lined game to N Dakota St here) and should close out their home schedule in good fashion tonight. Eastern Michigan is 3-8 straight up and may be looking forward to the end of their season, as the Eagles apply to a negative 44-84-2 ATS last game road situation. Eastern Michigan also applies to a negative 22-62-1 ATS road underdog situation while Central Michigan applies to a solid 96- 47-4 ATS last home game angle. The technical analysis is certainly strong enough to play Central Michigan as a Best Bet, but my math model favors the Chippewas by only 10 ½ points in this game and I’m not willing to give up any line value. Central Michigan is a still a profitable play overall and I’ll consider Central Michigan a Strong Opinion at -13 points or less and I’d make Central Michigan a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less. Strong Opinion RUTGERS (-11.5) 32 Pittsburgh 15 09:00 AM Pacific, 17-Nov-07 Rutgers applies to a very strong 45-8-2 ATS last home game situation that has been very good to me over the years (12-0 the last 6 years since I discovered it). Unfortunately, the line on this game is too high as my math model favors Rutgers by only 8 points. Pittsburgh’s good defense (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) is a bit better than a Rutgers’ offense that rates at 0.8 yppl better than average against Division 1A opponents. Rutgers posted big numbers against bad defensive teams early in the season, but the Scarlet Knights were only 0.6 yppl better than average against the 3 good defensive teams that they’ve faced, averaging 5.2 yppl against South Florida, West Virginia, and U Conn – who would combine to allow 4.6 yppl to an average team. Rutgers has an even bigger advantage with their solid defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl) against Pitt’s horrible offense (0.9 yppl worse than average with Bostick at quarterback), so they certainly could win big given the good situation that they are in. I hate to not play that strong situation but I’ll consider Rutgers a Strong Opinion at -12 points or less and will only take Rutgers as a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less. Strong Opinion BUFFALO 31 Bowling Green (-1.0) 26 10:00 AM Pacific, 17-Nov-07 Buffalo still isn’t getting the respect that they deserve despite being 4-2 straight up and 5-1 ATS in conference play this year. The Bulls certainly shouldn’t be an underdog at home in this game. Buffalo does have some problems moving the ball on offense (I rate their attack at 0.7 yards per play worse than average after taking out their garbage yards in their blowout loss to Penn State), but quarterback Drew Willy hasn’t thrown an interception in any of the last 5 games and has tossed just 5 picks all season. Buffalo should move the ball at a pretty good clip in this game against a Bowling Green defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team – so Buffalo has a slight edge over the Falcons’ defense. Buffalo’s defense is pretty good for a MAC school, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team and that unit is just slightly worse than a Bowling Green offense that has averaged 5.7 yppl with Sheehan at quarterback against a schedule of bad defensive teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. These teams are even from the line of scrimmage, but Buffalo has an advantage in projected turnovers and in special teams and my math model favors the Bulls by 5 ½ points. I’ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at -1 or better and for 2-Stars at +3 or more. Strong Opinion Utah St. 30 NEW MEXICO ST. (-9.5) 34 11:00 AM Pacific, 17-Nov-07 I’m a little upset at myself for not taking San Jose State as a Best Bet against New Mexico State last week, as my math model picked the Spartans to win that game easily as a 3 ½ point favorite. Once again my math is squarely against the New Mexico State, who the oddsmakers continue to price as if they are better than they really are. Perhaps they are fooled by New Mexico State’s decent total yards differential of 424 yards to 434 yards allowed. However, total yards is not as significant of an indicator as yards per play and New Mexico State has been out-gained by an average of 5.6 yppl to 6.3 yppl despite facing a very easy schedule that would combine to average just 5.0 yppl while allowing 5.6 yppl. Utah State is 0-10 and riding a 16 game losing streak, but the Aggies know they have a chance at a win here and my math model suggests that they can win. My model does project New Mexico State with a significant edge in total yards and yards per play but New Mexico State has the nation’s worst special teams, which explains why they can be so close to even in total yards and be out-scored by an average of 12.2 points per game. Utah State has been out-scored by an average of 18.2 points per game but they’ve played a schedule that is 9 points better than the schedule that New Mexico State has played, which would make Utah State 3 points better if you just looked at point differential and schedule strength. My math actually favors New Mexico State by 2 ½ points in this game and I would be on Utah State as a Best Bet if not for the fact that winless teams (0-7 or worse) are only 26-55-2 ATS when not an underdog of more than 10 points against a team that has won at least one game. That angle barely qualifies (since the line is pretty close to 10 points) and is not as significant as the line value favoring Utah State, so I’ll consider Utah State a Strong Opinion at +7 ½ points or more and I’d take Utah State as a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 ½ points or more. Strong Opinion Miami Fla 16 VIRGINIA TECH (-16.5) 26 12:30 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07 Miami was embarrassed 0-48 last week by Virginia in their Orange Bowl finale but don’t expect the Hurricanes to stay on the mat. That loss is not doubt the low point and it sets up the Hurricanes in one of my favorite situations – an incredibly good 90-21-2 ATS blowout bounce back situation that is an every better 58-9-1 ATS if the team also has the revenge motive (as Miami does). Virginia Tech, meanwhile, is coming off a huge win over Florida State and the Hokies apply to a negative 21-64 ATS double-digit home favorite letdown situation this week. My math model favors Virginia Tech by 18 ½ points and the situations combine to have a 63% chance of covering at a fair line. If Miami is a 63% play at +18 ½ then they are a 56% play at +16 ½, which is not quite good enough to make them a Best Bet. The chance of covering rises to 59% at +17, however and that is the number at which I’d make Miami a Best Bet. Miami still has enough physical talent to compete with Virginia Tech and I’ll consider Miami-Florida a Strong Opinion at +15 points or more and I’d take Miami in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more. Strong Opinion UTAH (-14.5) 32 New Mexico 12 02:30 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07 Utah is 6-0 straight up and has covered 5 straight games heading into this contest since starting quarterback Brian Johnson returned to the starting lineup after sitting out a few games with an injured shoulder. Johnson has been just mediocre throwing the football, but he doesn’t throw many interceptions and a mediocre offense that takes care of the ball is all the Utes need given how good their defense is. Utah has gone from good to great on defense in recent games and the Utes have allowed just 4.5 yards per play for the season (against teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). New Mexico is 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) and the Lobos were just shut out two weeks ago on the road by an equally good TCU stop unit. The Lobos do have an edge with Utah has the ball, as the Utes are just 0.1 yppl better than average with Johnson at quarterback while New Mexico’s defense rates at 0.4 yppl better than average. My math model favors Utah by 15 ½ points, so there is a little bit of line value, and Utah applies to a number of very good home momentum situations with records of 146-70-4 ATS, 47-11 ATS, and 80-29-1 ATS. The only reason I am not making Utah a Best Bet is because New Mexico is 28-4 ATS from game 7 on when not favored by less than 3 points or getting points (in regular season games) since Rocky Long has been the head coach. Long’s team hasn’t improved in the second half of the season as they normally do (0-4 ATS from game 7 on this year), but I don’t want to buck that team trend in a Best Bet. I’ll consider Utah a Strong Opinion at -16 points or less. Strong Opinion CINCINNATI 27 West Virginia (-6.5) 28 04:45 PM Pacific, 17-Nov-07 Cincinnati lived off of turnovers early in the season, but the Bearcats are improving on both sides of the ball and don’t need the turnover advantage to be competitive in this game. Cincinnati’s offense has thrived in recent weeks, as Ben Mauk has been very effective throwing the football against good defensive teams Pitt, South Florida and Connecticut. For the season Mauk has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average team and the Bearcats’ attack is 0.6 yards per play better than average with Mauk at quarterback. Cincinnati’s defense is just 0.4 yppl better than average but the Bearcats are particularly good defending the run (4.0 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yprp) and that strength matches up well with the run-oriented West Virginia offense. The Mountaineers are one of the elite teams in the nation, rating at 1.1 yppl better than average on offense and 1.0 yppl better than average defensively, but my math model favors West Virginia by just 5 points in this game. The reason for siding with Cincinnati is a number of very strong situations that favor the Bearcats in this game. Cincy applies to a 133-48- 6 ATS home momentum situation while West Virginia applies to a negative 28-73-1 ATS road letdown situation. The only thing keeping me from making Cincinnati a Best Bet is West Virginia’s history of success on the road. The Mounties are now 23-7 ATS on the road since the 2002 season, including 16-4 ATS as a road favorite. That team trend is not as significant as the strong general situations that favor Cincy in this game and I’ll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I’d take Cincinnati in a 2- Star Best Bet at +7 points or more (-1.15 odds or better). 
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#2
11-16-2007, 05:22 AM
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Re: Dr. Bob NCAA
Well, that kills two of my bets. I need to bet earlier in the week....
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#4
11-16-2007, 12:28 PM
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Re: Dr. Bob NCAA
I like everything here starting with his 2* picks and below.
except for one of his strong opinions. For his 4 star pick if the price ends up correct I'll be going against him and taking Louisville but this would be near the bottom of favorite of the bets I've made for the weekend. For his 3 star pick - I pass His 2 two star picks. I love both of those. His strong opinions I'm on quite a few of those already - the one I don't like is Rutgers, that is one I am sure I'll pass entirely on unless something changes.
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#8
11-18-2007, 08:18 PM
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Re: Dr. Bob NCAA
5-5 this week for Bob.
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#10
11-18-2007, 10:18 PM
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Re: Dr. Bob NCAA
[ QUOTE ]
4 star wins count quadruple. Losses in 3 star games only count as 1 loss. Strong opinions don't even count at all. He actually went 12-2!!!! [/ QUOTE ] lol nice
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