*** UFC 66 : Official prefight thread ***

[Performify]

Cup,

Thanks for the correction on the third round vs first round on the Gonzaga fight. Stupid typo/mistake on my part.

i'll update UFCjunkie as well.

You make a fair point that Bisping's level can be questioned a bit, but I think he's a legitimately stronger fighter from everything I've seen on him, primarily from highlights outside the Octagon and what we saw of him training / fighting on TUF. But its a fair point, i probably oversimplfy.

Its a fair point to say that generally any of the TUFers can be overvalued, but I still contend this is a clear tuneup / showoff fight for Bisping and there's some value there, baring the obvious miracle happenings.

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
My picks literally just hit the site this second.
http://www.ufcjunkie.com

Here's a summary of my predictions:

Summary of Full Card picks for UFC 66
# Andrei Arlovski -471 : KO rd.1 : no action
# Gabriel Gonzaga -276 : sub rd.1 : 2.76 units to win 1 unit
# Anthony Perosh +141 : sub rd.2 : no action
# Michael Bisping -381 : KO rd.1 : 3.81 units to win 1 unit
# Yushin Okami -421 : TKO rd.3 : 4.21 units to win 1 unit
# Jason MacDonald +191 : sub rd.3 : .52 units to win 1 unit
# Tony DeSouza +126 : sub rd.1 : .25 units to win .315 units
# Forrest Griffin -266 : TKO rd.2 : 2.66 units to win 1 unit
# Tito Ortiz +241 : TKO rd.4 : 1 unit to win 2.41 units

[/ QUOTE ]

Performify, I am absolutely SPEECHLESS at your write up. First off, are you predictions what you predict or what you hope to happen? I only ask because you believe Lidell is the favorite, but then predict Ortiz to TKO him in rd 4. That doesn't make sense to me.


Also, I have never loaded up on lines above -250 before, with the exception of dancing with the stars and Fedor fights...but it is your previous bets which have made me more willing to do so, hence my action on Lidell and Arlovski.

What's more interesting is that while I have small money on Okami, Perosh, Forest, and Bispring(more for action than for value), I am seriously considering betting against Gonzaga. Never in a million years would I have guessed this to be the card where we have such different opinions but I do 100% respect yours and what is happening is that I am seeing sports betting to be just that...betting(gambling).

In closing, I am so excited for UFC 66 and I do see the most value in this order


Lidell
Arlovski
Marrera,


So GL to you, and GL to me. I really can't find a reason to give Tito Ortiz better than a 20% chance, but I was much more conservative in my Kelly calculation. I'm on the fence about Macdonald and Leben btw, so I think I see some slight value in Macdonald simply because of his +191 line. But I may decide to just put $50 on Leben as an action bet...


In closing, I think this will be my play


Liddell over Ortiz, 4.6u to win 2u
AA over Cruz .92 to win .2
Marrero .38u to win 1u
Forest over Jardin .887u to win .3u


6.787u risked, looking to win 3.5u.



GL, see you on the 30th

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]

Performify, I am absolutely SPEECHLESS at your write up. First off, are you predictions what you predict or what you hope to happen? I only ask because you believe Lidell is the favorite, but then predict Ortiz to TKO him in rd 4. That doesn't make sense to me.


[/ QUOTE ]

My predictions are always what I think happens for gambling purposes. So if I think Tito is a smart bet I'm going to predict him to win. I don't want to say "bet Ortiz, but I'll predict Liddell to win". Even though, as I mention in the writeup, I think Liddell wins this fight approximately two-thirds of the time. Because I don't want to go 8-0 on my predictions and only 4-4 on my bets. If I'm 6-2 on predictions that means 6-2 on bets. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]

Liddell over Ortiz, 4.6u to win 2u
AA over Cruz .92 to win .2
Marrero .38u to win 1u
Forest over Jardin .887u to win .3u


6.787u risked, looking to win 3.5u.


[/ QUOTE ]

Very glad to see you posting your picks and units. I'd like to see more people doing that for the fights.

I'm not surprised we differe on Liddell / Ortiz, that's a pretty common one, lots of strong opinions on both sides.

AA i don't disagree on, he's a pretty safe bet, but at his line I have much better opportunities for my money this weekend with college, NFL, and three MMA events. So its just an opportunity cost issue with me.

I'm pretty confident on the Gonzaga pick, i'd say thats the one where we really disagree. In my opinion Gonzaga has a much better camp, training with the best Brazil has to offer including Chute Boxe; has a BJJ blackbelt from Wander Braga; and has better striking on the feet and obviously better submissions. Melo has the edge in wrestling and maybe in takedowns, possibly in ground and pound.

BJJ blackbelt vs GNP wrestler usually is a pretty big advantage for the BJJ fighter, especially if the BJJ fighter has the edge standing. Because the wrestler is in constant danger when he's trying to ground and pound, and is in constant danger on the feet and especially when trying to shoot.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this end with a guillotine choke early, if Gonzaga pops Melo in the face a couple times standing and Melo is forced to take a desperation shot. Otherwise I expect Gonzaga to dominate on the feet, get Melo down, and end with a choke or some sort of arm/shoulder lock, i.e. kimura or americana.

I was very close to recommending this as a two unit play in my writeup.

[trixtrix]

for anyone who's interested in marrero, i'll be glad to book the action for you personally juice-free at 2k a pop. we'll use the mean "fair" price on pinnacle, which i think right now is +/-275

[Performify]

if someone wants to take Trix up on this, I'd be happy to hold the money as an intermediary as usual.

[Performify]

Good article from MMAweekly with various people's opinions on the main event:

http://www.mmaweekly.com/absolutenm/...8&zoneid=2

some highlights in my opinion:


Monte Cox:
“I haven’t seen anything in Tito’s last 4 fights that leads me to believe that he’s going to be able to get Chuck off his feet and do the damage on the ground that he needs to do. Of course anything can happen, Tito is a good athlete; he’s capable of beating anyone if he has the right day. But if he’s going to stand up with Chuck again then I don’t know how the results are going to be any different.”

Kit Cope:
“Tito vs. Chuck 2 goes like this…Tito fights a smart fight and Chuck fights like Chuck fights. I’m sure Chuck is thinking if it ain’t broke don’t fix it, however Tito is going to come at him with a different strategy. He’s going to hang back. He’s not going to rush forward because Chuck does not take a step forward. He never ever moves forward unless he’s got you hurt already. This is just a prediction, but I think Tito’s going to hang back and make Chuck move forward and if Chuck moves forward, he’s going to be in danger of being taken down. I think its going to be a very boring fight for the first two rounds and then look for Tito’s conditioning to take over right about round three and maybe even press Chuck against the cage. And once Tito’s got that body lock its over. I think it goes the distance though.”

Damon Martin (Host – MMAWeekly Radio):
“If you’ve listened to the radio show at all in the last few months it should be painfully clear that I think Tito Ortiz is going to win this fight. I honestly think we’ve seen the rebirth of the Huntington Beach Bad Boy and I believe it’s his time to shine. Chuck is a phenomenal fighter at the top of his game right now and he’s going to be very tough to beat, but something tells me that Tito is just rejuvenated with the thought of being champion again. He has to know that this is the only chance he has to beat Chuck because if he loses, it’s the last chapter in the Ortiz/Liddell feud. I think he’s going to fight smarter this time around and make Chuck come to him, press him against the cage in a clinch and then work for the takedown. Tito’s ground and pound has looked out of this world as of late and I think a few elbows to Chuck’s head will make everyone remember why he was once considered one of the best fighters in the world. I’m going with Tito in the 3rd round by TKO.”

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
My picks literally just hit the site this second.
http://www.ufcjunkie.com

Here's a summary of my predictions:

Summary of Full Card picks for UFC 66
# Andrei Arlovski -471 : KO rd.1 : no action
# Gabriel Gonzaga -276 : sub rd.1 : 2.76 units to win 1 unit
# Anthony Perosh +141 : sub rd.2 : no action
# Michael Bisping -381 : KO rd.1 : 3.81 units to win 1 unit
# Yushin Okami -421 : TKO rd.3 : 4.21 units to win 1 unit
# Jason MacDonald +191 : sub rd.3 : .52 units to win 1 unit
# Tony DeSouza +126 : sub rd.1 : .25 units to win .315 units
# Forrest Griffin -266 : TKO rd.2 : 2.66 units to win 1 unit
# Tito Ortiz +241 : TKO rd.4 : 1 unit to win 2.41 units

[/ QUOTE ]

Grr, we need to change your title to "MMA Line Mover" I guess. Every line has moved against. I may soon unveil my " Fade Performify's steam" system. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

P.S. I could use a title again, sir.

[Performify]

I'll take a look through the current lines and see if any recommendations change.

I'd say that generally means either I'm on the right side of most all these then, or there are more people following me than I thought [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[zer0]

My "final" bets, fwiw:

KJardine +260, 1 unit to win 2.6
ESchafer +340, 1 unit to win 3.4
TAlves, -120, 1 unit to win .8
TOrtiz, +220, 2 units to win 4.2

[Mac]

I was happy to make a small play on Tito at +241 last week. I think Chuck's cardio is suspect, and Tito's proven he can take a punch. My hope is that Tito comes in with a solid gamepan, finds a way to get this into the third round, then dominates with takedowns in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th for a decision victory or TKO in the late rounds. Chuck is likely to win, but Tito can win enough to make that line attractive.

War Tito!!!! - Mac