Deceptively Interesting River Decision

[Jman28]

Hero is 22/18/3 smart reg. Villain is 19/15/2.5 TAG 2p2er.

I think this is more interesting than most HSNL hands, so please forgive the stakes.


Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Villain raises to $21, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero raises to $78, <font color="#666666"> 1 fold</font>, Villain calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets $122, Villain Calls

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Villain checks.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Hero...... (1 PSB left)

Shove?

If you check and he shoves, you?

If you check and he 1/3 pots, you?

[xorbie]

i can see him not pushing AK on this flop, but the turn check is really bizarre.

if hero is you (unclear as to this), im more likely to shove since he may convince himself you are splashing around (19/15 is def loose enough to make hero calls), its just that its hard to find a hand besides QQ and maybe some strange AA that you get value from.

[AcidKnight]

I can see QQ here, but not AA. I agree that it's hard to see any hands that we can get value from in this spot.

[Orlando Salazar]

OoP, Check call anything. The hands you might get value from should bluff to protect themselves, flushes may check behind and you have to lose to a full house (it's really never more than 28% he has one, + 5% for flush and you're still even money). If you shove, you really don't fold better hands. I'd bet 1/3 in position and fold to a shove.

[stan ivey]

[ QUOTE ]
OoP, Check call anything. The hands you might get value from should bluff to protect themselves, flushes may check behind and you have to lose to a full house (it's really never more than 28% he has one, + 5% for flush and you're still even money). If you shove, you really don't fold better hands. I'd bet 1/3 in position and fold to a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

salazarrrrrrrrrr

[iRock]

Betting sucks. If he is a standard 3/6 played, id check/fold the river unless its a ridiculous bet like 12 dollars. if it was small enough i could call cheap and get info for later sessions id also do that. we are hardly ever ahead if he bets.

[Marnixvdb]

i think i bet a little under half pot / fold to raise.. he never raises worse hands but will call some of them and will also check most of them behind rendering check/fold/call if price is v good an option as well

i'd be very interested to see what he calls the flop with in stead of raising it, that will give good info on his way of thinking - even though a flopraise is not mandatory for him with his strongest made hadns since he mustve been short to begin with if there is only a potbet left by now

edit: Upon rethinking, bet/fold is much better against a more loose passive player obv (I usually play them hence my advice), I think I prefer c/f against a solid player

[AcidKnight]

[ QUOTE ]
i think i bet a little under half pot / fold to raise.. he never raises worse hands but will call some of them and will also check most of them behind rendering check/fold/call if price is v good an option as well


[/ QUOTE ]
The ONLY worse hand I can see him calling with is Qx. I mean, he can't really pay us off with a Kx hand since he should never have one after checking the turn. Betting seems pointless unless you wanna sleep well knowing that you were certainly beat since he raised you.

I think c/f is probably the right thing to do here. C/C of a 1/3 pot bet or something is still bad albeit excusable, but if he bets &gt;1/2 the pot, I'd dump it.

I guess an alternate line is just shoveling if you think he's likely got the flush and will fold it since your hand can easily be a boat here. I dunno about that one, it seems kinda weird.

[wpr101]

I would check call any bet.

I find it unlikely that he has a set or AK on this flop and did not raise. The turn could look like you went for a CR with your own AK. On the river, you are almost always going to be betting full houses and AK. For this reason I like the check because it looks like a weak line by hero.

If we were in villian's shoes and the action went the same with hero checking the river it would be a good spot for villian to bluff IMO.

[Ship Ship McGipp]

omfg i am [censored] confused

he should probably be raising the flop with sets, folding KQ pre to the 3bet (given his numbers, unless he's apt to call 3 bets light), betting AK on the turn, raising AA on the flop, raising/shoving flush draws on the flop, [censored].

bleh, i guess i would put him on exactly QQ or JJ, and tank and shove, to get a frustrated AK to call (that flatted pre and also flatted the flop?!) or QQ to call, tho the latter would bet anyways, and possibly (probably not) fold to a shove, and the former is unlikely to call anywyas.

foooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooock confusion.

i dont' know, i guess this close i would errr on the side of shoving becuase then we dont' have to show it down.

nothing. makes. any. sense.

if we check, i'm pretty sure he's almost never bluffing, but i feel like the absolute value of our hand is too strong to fold with one psb left (this could be incorrect thinking, but i guess in this manner i'm just saying "i have a [censored] straight, i can beat crazy random floats that are 'never' supposed to be floating and or bluffing")...

mass confusion.