second nuts again

[sublime]

these 'lessons' seem to copme in bunches. what i mean is i am still within my first 35k NL hands and am still learning how to adjust to certain situations. this week it has been non nut two card straights and what to do when a villian shows a lot of strenght.

in this case, villian seems to be a regular. i have seen him a biut before and although i dont have much personal history with him on the top of my head, i assume he knows i play a TAG style.

he is 18/14/4 over a large sample

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $100.65
<font color="black">Hero (BB): $101.40</font>
UTG: $101.50
CO: $69.65
BTN: $123.35

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO calls $1.00, BTN folds, SB calls $0.50, Hero checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($3) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $3.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $12.00</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $99.65</font>

i am not thrilled with my spot here. if i am ahead he usually has a decent amount of outs. if i am behind, well i am drawing to runner runner chop.

thoughts? even if his range is somwehat wide here, i am not losing much by folding, am i?

[Jay Riall]

lol call, and you have the 3rd nuts.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
lol call, and you have the 3rd nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

ahh yes 47!

cmon man lay the call out in pokerstove.....its not as LOL call as it first looks...unless i am being far too narrow in my range.

bring back carter btw.

[Jay Riall]

Without looking at your stoving I can tell you the range is too narrow.

And no, Carter is boring - little, bald, Manc twa.ts are the future!

[sublime]

manc twa.ts = Manchester player?

[Jay Riall]

Little Bald Manc T.wat

[Redd]

Behind: 4 combos of 78s
4 discounted combos of 78o (and I think 4 combos is generous)

Ahead: 6x3 = 18 sets, each with ~25% equity
1 discounted combo of A7s with ~25%.
------------------------------------------------
=27 total combos

EV[call] = [-88]*(8/27) + [0.25*-88 + 0.75*115]*(19/27) = $18.50ish. And that's assuming he's never donking off with some stupid AA, and that he's going to regularly overlimp the short-stack with 78o from the SB.

[Jay Riall]

Add in two pair and occasionally some pair+draw type hands.

[sublime]

ok i called and he had 78s, second time in 24 hours i have stacked off with lower straight. checking in with my shizit.

[sondring]

sucks. make a note on him.