89s - Is this standard?

[pterodactyl_]

Full Tilt - 1$ BB - Full Ring - 9 players
Effective stacks of 100$

PF (1.50$): Hero is Button with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
4 folds, MP2 raises to 3.50$, 1 fold, <font color="red">Hero calls 3.50$</font>, SB calls 3.00, BB folds

Flop (11.50$): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets 11.50$</font>, SB folds, MP2 raises to 23.00$, <font color="red">Hero raises to 96.50$ (all in)...</font>

Is this how most others play this on the flop? Any comments are welcome.

[xGREGORx]

Put villian on a range of hands and analyze that range vs your big draw, then you can see if it is +EV. I think your fold equity ~0 though.

[Jim14Qc]

Why do you put his fold equity so low? villain still has ~$75 left in his stack and if he's not too loose he can lay down AQs, AA/KK. The worst possible hand I think we see is QQ. Other than that I'm pretty sure hero has some fold equity in this big, non-commiting pot.

Hands that fold? AQ, KK?, AA?, AK (he could have this if he's aggro, but I doubt it because of minraise).. am I missing some?

Hands that call? QQ, TT, AdKd &lt;-- probably?, maybe an overpair if he's loose. I can't see many other hands calling.

The pot is already pretty big and the OESD + flush draw make it a 1:0.85 to come in so it's definitely +EV pretty much no matter what he has (unless he's on a stronger flush draw, and even then...)

[_Sundance]

You need to win about 42% of the time when called for this to be positive ($85 bet to win $200). The only real opponent hands for which this is not true or better are AdJd/AdKd (around 32% and 21%). It's the right move against trips/2P/Pair+draw.

So yes, I think a push is fairly standard here unless your opponent is insanely tight and folds/calls with 2 pair or worse given this action. I can't see calling being more profitable unless you know your opponent very frequently calls on later streets even if the flush comes.

[Panthro]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you put his fold equity so low?

[/ QUOTE ]

Generally when someone raises pre and c/r's the flop at this level, they have a monster. I'd expect a set/2pr/KK/AA most of the time and I doubt villain's folding.

[xGREGORx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why do you put his fold equity so low?

[/ QUOTE ]

Generally when someone raises pre and c/r's the flop at this level, they have a monster. I'd expect a set/2pr/KK/AA most of the time and I doubt villain's folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly.... so pokerstove vs that range and see if getting it all in is +EV... I expect if you push it is getting called.

[pterodactyl_]

So you guys would advocate a call and re-eval on turn?
Or is my EV still positive even if I get called every time. I don't have poker stove, if someone wants to run it, thats cool, if not no big deal.

[xGREGORx]

Actually, I advocate checking behind on the flop. No reads? How often villian cbets is important because if he always does then a check on the flop here is very suspicious. Against the typical villian... most cbet on the flop, so the check is ominous and I check behind to avoid the CR.

I would not be surprised to see villian with a set here. I am at work right now and cannot pokerstove to do the EV calcs for all-in on the flop. Anybody have the time to do it?

[andyEB]

I like this play if villain will fold top pair to a shove.

Edit: misread the action (didn't see c/r). I probably call here and re-eval on the turn.

[xGREGORx]

[ QUOTE ]
So you guys would advocate a call and re-eval on turn?
Or is my EV still positive even if I get called every time. I don't have poker stove, if someone wants to run it, thats cool, if not no big deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokerstove is free and a must have to improve your game. www.pokerstove.com