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#32
12-27-2006, 05:52 PM
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Re: 22 set - Flop fold thoughts
I cant actually see that True actually did fold this as he is folding purely through a fear of 99 which seems unlikely. Sure UTG played it a little strange but will have an overpair QQ> more often than a flopped set.
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#33
12-27-2006, 05:54 PM
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Re: 22 set - Flop fold thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] True, given the action, I think you need to call. I think your check sucks on the flop. Reason: position. [/ QUOTE ] I think betting this flop is bad. [/ QUOTE ] I presume you are advocating check/raise not check/call?
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#34
12-27-2006, 05:56 PM
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Re: 22 set - Flop fold thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] True, given the action, I think you need to call. I think your check sucks on the flop. Reason: position. [/ QUOTE ] I think betting this flop is bad. [/ QUOTE ] I presume you are advocating check/raise not check/call? [/ QUOTE ] Yes.
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#35
12-27-2006, 05:57 PM
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Re: 22 set - Flop fold thoughts
OP, surely villian has a much bigger chance of having TT->QQ, AhKh, AhQh than 99/33 BEFORE the raise on the flop - I would put it at about 90%/10% (possibly more given the 9 and 3 on the flop).
Perhaps you can comment on why you so radicially reduce those holdings given his flop raise. In the hand you appear to have no interest in the pot, if UTG calls it creates a $500 pot leaving CO $200 ish + the chance of pricing a draw for you. Say he has QQ, does he really respect CO's action enough not to get it in here? If he has AhKh are you sure he doesn't make the attractive call pre-flop and the raise on the flop? How would you play these holdings if you were UTG in this situation? I would push here and expect UTG to call about 20% of the time holding 99/33, fold 70% of the time holding overpair/draw, and maybe call 10% of time with either AA/big draw. So I see the push here as about $150+ ev assuming CO folds, probably more with a call given your read. Calling may be better if you think you can extract well priced bets from UTG holding an overpair and read it well if a H comes.
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#36
12-27-2006, 06:08 PM
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Re: 22 set - Flop fold thoughts
[ QUOTE ]
I am not a fan of the preflop call of the re-raise unless you are planning to stack off when you hit. [/ QUOTE ] well its not like he is 'zomg set i fold'. im sure he was planning to get all in. and then [censored] meet fan etc.
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