NL25 AKo from CO against 3bet from SB

[ieee754]

Hello,

villain seems solid and is 18/14/5 over 130 hands.

I've been raising like the last 3 to 4 hands.
He once cr my cbet on a 562 rainbow flop.

I figured I have tons of fold equity and might very well be ahead of his range.

Is pushing here ok or even standard?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

SB ($38.75)
BB ($25.60)
UTG ($13.60)
MP ($20.90)
Hero ($31.05)
Button ($29.75)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, MP calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $5.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $32.55 (All-In)</font>, SB calls $25.80.

Flop: ($64.35) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>
.

Turn: ($64.35) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($64.35) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $64.35


Thanks

[samurai_jack]

What were you trying to do by going ai? If you think he's a solid player, then I would think that his raise means either he's trying to find out if you have cards or he himself has solid cards.

If the former, then you can get him to fold with with a smaller bet than pushing, and if the latter why risk your whole stack?

It just seems like pushing means you've exposed yourself in a situation where getting called means you're no better than a toss up.

[matrix]

pushing AK (2nd nuts effectively) preflop is boringly standard.

[ieee754]

It might be boring but I still dont get it right.

Is this ever a +EV Spot?

Lets run some numbers:

The first number alwasy represents how often I think what happens.
e.g. AJ/AQ I think he calls my push 10% of the time with those hands.
75% of the time I win his 25$ and 25% of the time I lose my 25$.


- He folds to my push. 40% of the time. I win roughly 10$ from the pot.
0.4 * 10

- He calls with AJ/AQ. 10% of the time (very unlikely, but who knows).
0.1 * (0.75 * 25 - 0.25 * 25)

- He calls with any PP &lt; KK/AA. 30% of the time
about +/- zero. I think I lose money here because Im a little dog and because of the rake.
0.3 * -2

- He calls with KK. 10% of the time
0.1 * (0.3 * 25 - 0.7 * 25)

- He calls with AA. 10% of the time
0.1 (0.2 * 25 - 0.8 * 25)

And am I right that he only has AA/KK ~5% (2 * (3/50*2/49)) of the time?

When run through a calculator this evals to -3.1.
So isnt this a -EV spot, or is my math just plain wrong?


Thanks.

[bazza22]

Im not sure about the maths side of things but if you 4bet AI against a guy who you know 3bets light quite often then you're well ahead of his range a lot of the time. If villain turns over AA or KK then so be it.

If villain doesnt show those two monsters you're either flipping or taking down a nice pot pre flop.