NL25 AA vs drawy board

theplux · #1 01-20-2007, 05:31 PM

Vilain is a TAG player. Here I've a read that he's on a flushdraw and I don't want to give him a freecard or give him odds to do so. Good push on turn or not?

Just want to know if my reasoning is good here.
He has 18.65$ left. He has to put 18.65$ in a 31.65$ pot. If he calls and has a FD, he could win 50.30$ for 18.65$ 2.6:1

Theres 8 hearts left (I've the ace) so 8x2+1=17% chance to hit his FD so 5.8:1 if he dosent have a pair on board. If he has a pair on board he has 2more outs, so 10x2+1= 21% 4.7:1

I'm guessing if my read is good this is a EV+ push.

If I just bet the pot on turn which is 13.10$ I'm only going to have 11$ left and will be most likely pot commited basically because he will have nothing left. If I bet the pot on turn tought I'm giving him better odds to call. He will be 3:1 for his money, still a EV- money move from him but would be better. If he dosen't hit he's likely to just fold his 5$ left and I would win less.

Any toughts or remarks?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG+1 ($26.15)
MP1 ($26.25)
MP2 ($24.65)
MP3 ($7.15)
CO ($24.65)
Hero ($30.80)
SB ($10.40)
BB ($17.75)
UTG ($24.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls $1.75.

Flop: ($5.10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $4, CO calls $4.

Turn: ($13.10) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $24.8 (All-In),