Help - Do I call here?

[Xexilla]

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $74.90
Hero (UTG): $76.65
MP: $25.70
CO: $49.25
BTN: $16.60
SB: $51.30

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $5</font>, 4 folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($10.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP bets $20.70 and is All-In</font>

Results: $10.75 Pot ($10.75 Rake)

We have history... prior hand I bluffed and he called mediocre pot.. then I made top 2 vs his top pair and got paid off... then this hand occurred.

[well named]

I'd fold, there are better spots than this to be found, and your history doesn't really give any indication that he'd overbet bluff here. He can easily have an overpair or set and is trying to get his money back.

[Xexilla]

But then surely I would only be a 1.6to1 underdog with 10outs?? therefore isen't it a correct call?? providing he has like AJ AA or KK..... but then he might have AQ AK maybe??? obviously if he has a set aren't I still just about getting the right price on 8 outs with $11 out there already and no bets to come?

[RockRattler]

no fold. Your almost always behind and he bets twice the pot

[Bigka79]

would anyone play the flop different. say by betting out at it. idk it just seems that he either hit the board hard or whiffed completely.

[ICMoney]

Best case scenario, he has AJ, AA or KK like you said.

I think he would try to get value from these hands, but let's just assume that's what he has.

Pot is laying 50.15:20.7 (with rake) so you need to be good 41% of the time.

You have 37% against that range and should fold.

41% would look like: 88+,AKs,AJs,JTs,AKo,JTo.

[ QUOTE ]
But then surely I would only be a 1.6to1 underdog with 10outs?? therefore isen't it a correct call?? providing he has like AJ AA or KK.....

[/ QUOTE ]

[Xexilla]

Thank you very much that's what I wanted to clear up I wasn't quite sure [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Cheers.

[Xexilla]

I didn't want to lead out because I would be committed to calling I don't like the way he plays this anyway if he has a set or Aces but think he is just playing our history expecting me to call with anything half decent.

[ICMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
would anyone play the flop different. say by betting out at it. idk it just seems that he either hit the board hard or whiffed completely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would check if I intended to CR ai.
He could have AK but wouldn't fold to a donk (see below).

I would expect a CB of around 6.5, leaving him $14. After you CR ai he would be getting 3.5:1 and only need to be good 28% of the time.

Even AK has 38% equity against 99 and I don't see it folding.

I think you could just let this one go.