25NL; AK put to the test

[vanoff]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $24.55
BB: $22.45
UTG: $38.66
MP: $5.00
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $25.35</font>
BTN: $25.82

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.00</font>, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.25</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $2.25

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($7.10) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5.00</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $15.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero??</font>


Opponent is 17.5/15.5/8. Is this a push on my side?

[HonteleJ]

You are showing a lot of strenght pre flop and on a K high dry flop. Nonetheless he raises you and wants to get all the chips in the middle. Without further reads, I think villain will show up with 66/99/AK a lot of the time here and I would fold.

[corsakh]

Ai... AF 8 = push.

ps Me bad.

[HonteleJ]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn raise = fold your pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a flop raise.

[wslee00]

[ QUOTE ]
Ai... AF 8 = push.

[/ QUOTE ]

[TIGERsrm]

How many hands are these stats over? Sometimes after 50 hands my AF on one table is 12 and 1 on another. You need a fair amount of hands to get a reliable reading with this stat so don't put too much emphasis on it over small samples.

You have represented a big hand so he has to believe AK, KK or AA is a real possibility for you here. There are no draws on this flop so he cant be semi-bluffing. I think your chopping with another AK here at best and even more likely drawing almost dead to AA, 99 or 66.

[Jaap]

Did you c-bet a lot on this table?? Villain is quite a good player and this makes it a push imo. Because he know you will c-bet this with any 2 he can check/raise you; knowing that you will lay a lot of hands down. I don't see a set reraising very often here because the board is sooo dry.

[good_gamble]

[ QUOTE ]
How many hands are these stats over? Sometimes after 50 hands my AF on one table is 12 and 1 on another. You need a fair amount of hands to get a reliable reading with this stat so don't put too much emphasis on it over small samples.

You have represented a big hand so he has to believe AK, KK or AA is a real possibility for you here. There are no draws on this flop so he cant be semi-bluffing. I think your chopping with another AK here at best and even more likely drawing almost dead to AA, 99 or 66

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said.

[vanoff]

HonteleJ you're dead on accurate [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The sample size is 104 hands to show an AF of 8. Basically I thought that's a big enough sample size, which made me think he's bluffing. I was obv. wrong. I'm showing a lot of strength in this hand but non the less he re-raises me back on the flop and wants to get all the chips in the middle.. sounds like a set.

Hero raises all-in to $22.10</font>, UTG calls $7.10

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($51.30) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

<font color="black">River:</font> ($51.30) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $51.30 ($2.55 Rake)

UTG had A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a pair of Aces) and WON (+$23.40)
Hero had A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$25.35)

[Upgrade_U]

I like folding it better, on such a dry board you can't be better than split against another AK.
Players with solid stats like these rarely throw in big bluffs like that ( tho yea AF 8 indicates to that )