25NL: I have NFD, am I spewing?

homeslice · #1 06-08-2007, 11:35 PM

I've played about 100 hands w/ this villian. Villian is a solid player, but I know he's capable of 3 betting light. Is my flop push, spewing?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($25)
SB ($28.25)
BB ($74.55)
UTG ($68.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BB raises to $3, Hero calls $2.

Flop: ($6.10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $4, Hero raises to $22

Vyse · #2 06-08-2007, 11:35 PM

Yes.

Lego05 · #3 06-08-2007, 11:44 PM

Yep.

Emperor Norton · #4 06-08-2007, 11:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes.

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If by "yes" you mean "no" then you're absolutely right.

I don't know how lightly BB 3-bets, so let's assume that he doesn't. Instead, let's give him a very reasonable range of {TT+,AK}

If villain calls the flop with all of his pairs, hero has roughly 45% equity on this flop.

Board: 4c 7c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.314% 44.86% 00.45% 11991 121.50 { Ac9c }
Hand 1: 54.686% 54.23% 00.45% 14496 121.50 { TT+ }

I'm not going to type out the math, but the gist is that due to the amount already in the pot, hero can actually expect to make $0.70 on average when called.

But wait! There's more. We can also expect that villain will generally fold AK to this aggression. When he does that, hero picks up a pot of $10 unopposed. Sweet!

The shove only becomes more profitable as we add hands to villain's range. If villain c-bets here with AQ, that's another instance where we can generally expect to pick up $10 unopposed.

In short, nh.

homeslice · #5 06-09-2007, 12:00 AM

Emperor, thanx for going through that...

Lego05 · #6 06-09-2007, 12:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

If by "yes" you mean "no" then you're absolutely right.

I don't know how lightly BB 3-bets, so let's assume that he doesn't. Instead, let's give him a very reasonable range of {TT+,AK}

If villain calls the flop with all of his pairs, hero has roughly 45% equity on this flop.

Board: 4c 7c 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.314% 44.86% 00.45% 11991 121.50 { Ac9c }
Hand 1: 54.686% 54.23% 00.45% 14496 121.50 { TT+ }

I'm not going to type out the math, but the gist is that due to the amount already in the pot, hero can actually expect to make $0.70 on average when called.

But wait! There's more. We can also expect that villain will generally fold AK to this aggression. When he does that, hero picks up a pot of $10 unopposed. Sweet!

The shove only becomes more profitable as we add hands to villain's range. If villain c-bets here with AQ, that's another instance where we can generally expect to pick up $10 unopposed.

In short, nh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if villian is a good TAG here I wouldn't think he's calling with all of his pairs. However, yea I shouldn't have answered so fast. The extra A outs would make a big difference. Also like to point out that if he is 3 betting light he could have a set here some of the time.

CheddaBones · #7 06-09-2007, 12:21 AM

i agree w/emperor, but lets be honest... this is 25NL. you have absolutely NO fold equity against someone w/any overpair.

Lego05 · #8 06-09-2007, 12:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i agree w/emperor, but lets be honest... this is 25NL. you have absolutely NO fold equity against someone w/any overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do against good opponents at 50NL...I'd be surprised if there weren't any at 25 NL that you had some against.

Emperor Norton · #9 06-09-2007, 12:42 AM

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Well if villian is a good TAG here I wouldn't think he's calling with all of his pairs. However, yea I shouldn't have answered so fast. The extra A outs would make a big difference. Also like to point out that if he is 3 betting light he could have a set here some of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if villain calls only with sets and QQ+, we still have about 38% equity on the flop. This is more than compensated for by the fact that a villain who 3-bets 44 is also probably 3-betting AJ/KQ/etc, which is basically free money when they c-bet.

CheddaBones · #10 06-09-2007, 12:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i agree w/emperor, but lets be honest... this is 25NL. you have absolutely NO fold equity against someone w/any overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do against good opponents at 50NL...I'd be surprised if there weren't any at 25 NL that you had some against.

[/ QUOTE ]

good opponents don't stay at 25/50nl for too long. maybe you run into someone working their way through, but imo i think it is dangerous to assume ppl will fold overpairs in situations such as this one.