QQ against major PF action incl. LRR

[Jouster777]

No reads...recently sat down

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $52.40
<font color="black">Hero (BB): $51.55</font>
UTG: $30.60
CO: $30.80
BTN: $25.20

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, <font color="red">BTN raises to $3.00</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.50</font>, UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $12.00</font>, 2 folds Hero???

Pot Size: $23.25

CO overlimps and then 4-bets...looks strong to me. Fold? Play for set value? Push?

[Nick C]

Well, you should at least play for set value. You easily have the odds to do that, especially since CO still has $18 behind.

I agree, though, that CO's play looks trappy and strong.

[Jouster777]

If we put him on AA/KK then I don't think I can play for set value as I would need ~12 x4.5 in implied money to call. Even if his range is wider than AA/KK postflop it so dominates his range that postflop I have to play it as if that is what he has, no?.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
If we put him on AA/KK then I don't think I can play for set value as I would need ~12 x4.5 in implied money to call. Even if his range is wider than AA/KK postflop it so dominates his range that postflop I have to play it as if that is what he has, no?.

[/ QUOTE ]

CO only raised you $4.50 more than you're already in for. And the pot has over $23 in it. So you're not that far from having the immediate odds to call. (Another $11.50 or so should do it.) And CO does still have $18 behind.

Er, wait, I see you do have $4.50 in your math above, but what is that 12? The odds against flopping a set are about 7.5 to 1 against. (I realize it's possible to flop a set and still lose, but does that really push things all the way to 12?)

In any case, it is actually closer than I thought at first, but I would call.

[Jouster777]

The 12 (it should be 11.7) comes from dan bitel's calculation of set odds needed if you know you are against an overpair set odds v. OP

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
The 12 (it should be 11.7) comes from dan bitel's calculation of set odds needed if you know you are against an overpair set odds v. OP

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay. We flop a set and lose to a bigger set more frequently than I realized. That's useful to know.

[Jouster777]

Here's a similar though longer, more complicated, and largely unread calculation for set mining against a more typical PFR range: Tl, dr

[Pancho]

From the TL thread:

"This seems rather low but within the 3-8% rule that many now use."

Could anyone expalain me briefly the 3-8% rule pls?
and also what odds he now suggests for setvalue(didn't get it from the post)?

Thx