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#111
01-07-2007, 04:44 PM
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Re: 2008 National Champions (NCAAF)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] West Virginia - will be sick with Slayton and White both back. The winner of their game with Louisville will be playing for the national title IMO. [/ QUOTE ] This would be a complete joke. I will bet you $500 right now if West Virginia or Lousiville play any SEC team in a bowl game, I'll take the SEC team and spot you 3 points. [/ QUOTE ] You do know as of before the bowls, the Sagarin rankings, the most accurate predictive model, shows Louisville as a minimum 4.5 pt favorite over any team in the SEC? [/ QUOTE ] Earlier in this thread I expressed my distain for the Sagrin rankings. Check back on the first page. Would you care to take my bet? As for most accurate predictive model, would you take L'ville -4.5 over LSU, FLA, even AU or ARK? I am sick of people acting like Sagarin is the final word in college football. It is seriously flawed, PAC-10 toughest conference this year, lmao. [/ QUOTE ] Feel free to give reasons that Sagarin's ratings are flawed. Please use some statistics, since the numbers don't back you up. Louisville over LSU? LSU obviously, but their rating isn't as high is it might be because of inconsistency? Over Florida? No, see above. Arkansas, Tennessee, or Arkansas. I'll give the 3 or 4. If Bush were healthy, I'd bet the farm. 
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#112
01-07-2007, 05:06 PM
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Re: 2008 National Champions (NCAAF)
[ QUOTE ]
You do know as of before the bowls, the Sagarin rankings, the most accurate predictive model, shows Louisville as a minimum 4.5 pt favorite over any team in the SEC? [/ QUOTE ] I am a follower of Sagarin too and if you are going to throw numbers around at least let them be correct. College Football 2006 through games of December 16 Saturday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.67 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 1 Ohio State A = 100.63 12 0 72.08( 40) 1 0 | 3 0 | 102.96 1 | 98.25 1 2 Southern California A = 94.19 10 2 80.98( 2) 1 0 | 6 2 | 94.91 4 | 92.89 3 3 Michigan A = 93.19 11 1 75.38( 13) 0 1 | 3 1 | 99.32 2 | 88.95 7 4 LSU A = 92.07 10 2 73.40( 29) 1 1 | 2 2 | 94.33 5 | 89.63 5 5 Louisville A = 91.99 11 1 72.58( 36) 1 0 | 1 1 | 89.62 13 | 94.12 2 6 Florida A = 91.62 12 1 74.48( 18) 2 0 | 5 1 | 98.57 3 | 87.02 11 7 California A = 89.38 9 3 79.09( 6) 0 2 | 4 2 | 90.55 11 | 87.69 8 8 West Virginia A = 87.18 10 2 71.79( 42) 0 1 | 1 1 | 84.85 17 | 89.18 6 9 Boise State A = 87.11 12 0 63.83( 100) 0 0 | 2 0 | 93.43 6 | 82.50 20 10 Tennessee A = 87.06 9 3 76.52( 11) 1 2 | 3 3 | 90.01 12 | 84.11 15 Louisville on a neutral field would be a dog to LSU and would be even money or -1 to Florida. These numbers as you see were before the bowl games.
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#113
01-07-2007, 05:12 PM
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Re: 2008 National Champions (NCAAF)
Use predictor. -_-
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#114
01-07-2007, 07:40 PM
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Re: 2008 National Champions (NCAAF)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] West Virginia - will be sick with Slayton and White both back. The winner of their game with Louisville will be playing for the national title IMO. [/ QUOTE ] This would be a complete joke. I will bet you $500 right now if West Virginia or Lousiville play any SEC team in a bowl game, I'll take the SEC team and spot you 3 points. [/ QUOTE ] You do know as of before the bowls, the Sagarin rankings, the most accurate predictive model, shows Louisville as a minimum 4.5 pt favorite over any team in the SEC? [/ QUOTE ] Earlier in this thread I expressed my distain for the Sagrin rankings. Check back on the first page. Would you care to take my bet? As for most accurate predictive model, would you take L'ville -4.5 over LSU, FLA, even AU or ARK? I am sick of people acting like Sagarin is the final word in college football. It is seriously flawed, PAC-10 toughest conference this year, lmao. [/ QUOTE ] Feel free to give reasons that Sagarin's ratings are flawed. Please use some statistics, since the numbers don't back you up. Louisville over LSU? LSU obviously, but their rating isn't as high is it might be because of inconsistency? Over Florida? No, see above. Arkansas, Tennessee, or Arkansas. I'll give the 3 or 4. If Bush were healthy, I'd bet the farm. [/ QUOTE ] I choose not to use numbers but rather what some refer to as intangibles. It is a simple fact that SEC teams play a tougher schedule week in and week out. While Lousville and West Virginia both a had good seasons, how many teams in the top 15 did they play? How many in the top 5? I do have a standing bet hanging out there if you care to take it, it's open to anyone. Also, I would bet the farm on Auburn +4 against L'ville. Defense wins football games.
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#115
01-07-2007, 07:55 PM
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Re: 2008 National Champions (NCAAF)
[ QUOTE ]
I choose not to use numbers but rather what some refer to as intangibles. [/ QUOTE ] Intangibles is just another word for no facts to back up an opinion. [ QUOTE ] It is a simple fact that SEC teams play a tougher schedule week in and week out. [/ QUOTE ] That's questionable, especially after the SEC bowl performance so far. [ QUOTE ] I do have a standing bet hanging out there if you care to take it, it's open to anyone. [/ QUOTE ] If I knew you, I would. [ QUOTE ] Also, I would bet the farm on Auburn +4 against L'ville. Defense wins football games. [/ QUOTE ] After the way they finished? Wow. Beat 4-8 Ole Miss by 6. Beat Ark St by 27. Get destroyed by Georgia 15-37. Beat 6-7 Bama by 7. Beat Nebraska by 3. I'm not really impressed.
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#117
01-07-2007, 10:01 PM
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Re: 2008 National Champions (NCAAF)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It is a simple fact that SEC teams play a tougher schedule week in and week out. [/ QUOTE ] LOL. [/ QUOTE ] How do people continue to say this with a straight face?
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#118
01-08-2007, 01:06 AM
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Re: 2008 National Champions (NCAAF)
[ QUOTE ]
That's questionable, especially after the SEC bowl performance so far. [ QUOTE ] I do have a standing bet hanging out there if you care to take it, it's open to anyone. [/ QUOTE ] If I knew you, I would. [ QUOTE ] Also, I would bet the farm on Auburn +4 against L'ville. Defense wins football games. [/ QUOTE ] After the way they finished? Wow. Beat 4-8 Ole Miss by 6. Beat Ark St by 27. Get destroyed by Georgia 15-37. Beat 6-7 Bama by 7. Beat Nebraska by 3. I'm not really impressed. [/ QUOTE ] You conveniently left off wins over LSU and FLA. A closer look shows the wins over Ole Miss and Bama were on the road, which unlike the Big East, is no small thing. The Big East averages is 39K people per game, my high school regularly played for bigger crowds. As for your comment about the SEC not having a good bowl season, they actually have the best record of the major conferences: SEC 9 teams - 5-3 with 1 to go Pac 10 6 teams - 3-3 Big 12 8 teams - 3-5 Big 10 7 teams - 2-4 with 1 to go Or you can measure their head to head play: SEC #1 Florida has yet to play. SEC #2 Arkansas lost to Big Ten #3 Wisconsin by 3 SEC #3 LSU beat National #11 Notre Dame by 27 SEC #4 Auburn beat Big XII #3 Nebraska by 3 SEC #5 Tennessee lost to Big Ten #4 Penn State by 10 SEC #6 Georgia beat ACC #3 Va. Tech by 7 SEC #7 Kentucky beat ACC #5 Clemson by 8 SEC #8 South Carolina beat C-USA #1 Houston by 8 SEC #9 Alabama lost to Big XII #8 Oklahoma State by 3 While I don't think a win is likely, if Fla. wins tomorrow, how can you not agree the sec is the toughest conference this year? I've been posting here about a year, and you have my word as a gambler if you would like to take the bet.
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#119
01-08-2007, 01:55 AM
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Re: 2008 National Champions (NCAAF)
[ QUOTE ]
Terrabon - i'll take a coach who can consistantly put a great team on the field but isn't a good playcaller over the opposite any day. Noone is more responsible for the quality of their football team than a college head coach. The fact that Michigan can beat 75% of their opponents by just relying on having better players means Carr is doing a hell of a job. People used to say Tom Osborne couldn't get it done with his antiquated offense and predictable playcalling to. Don't be so quick to criticize someone who has kept your program at an elite level for so long. [/ QUOTE ] Osborne was an offensive genius.
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#120
01-08-2007, 02:47 AM
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Re: 2008 National Champions (NCAAF)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Terrabon - i'll take a coach who can consistantly put a great team on the field but isn't a good playcaller over the opposite any day. Noone is more responsible for the quality of their football team than a college head coach. The fact that Michigan can beat 75% of their opponents by just relying on having better players means Carr is doing a hell of a job. People used to say Tom Osborne couldn't get it done with his antiquated offense and predictable playcalling to. Don't be so quick to criticize someone who has kept your program at an elite level for so long. [/ QUOTE ] Osborne was an offensive genius. [/ QUOTE ] In the end, that's really my point though, isn't it? Osborne still won national championships, and nobody can say his teams consistently underperformed. The same is not true for Carr. In fact, Carr was able to run what many would call an "antiquated" style for the first few years of his tenure very effectively. Unfortunately, teams have adjusted and it no longer works. His lack of adaptation and a steady stream of big losses is what concerns me. For those exact reasons, it's pretty silly to compare Osborne to Carr.
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